TEX
@
7:10p
BOS
Stadium Conditions
Fenway Park
First pitch 7:10p
· roof open
Park 0.92×
Wind 6 mph slight_out
84°F
open
-3
1 mph · cross
68°F
7:10p
Neutral for HR environment
-3
1 mph · cross
68°F
8:10p
Neutral for HR environment
-3
1 mph · cross
68°F
9:10p
Neutral for HR environment
-3
1 mph · cross
68°F
10:10p
Neutral for HR environment
-3
1 mph · cross
68°F
11:10p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Elevated · Combined 1.01
84°F, wind 6 mph S (slight_out) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Willson Contreras | 63 | 🔵 C+ | · | · | 36 | 0.219 | 89.8 | 13.4% | 32.0% vs RHP | 410 | 19.4% | 18.2% | 23.7% | 25 |
| 2 |
|
Jarren Duran | 52 | 🟠 C | · | · | 72 | 0.167 | 90.3 | 11.6% | 33.3% vs RHP | 391 | 14.3% | 16.7% | 18.1% | 27 |
| 3 |
|
Wilyer Abreu ⚡ | 46 | ⚪ D | +900 | 🌤️ WARM | 96 | 0.146 | 89.7 | 11.8% | 11.9% vs RHP | 392 | 11.1% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 33 |
| 4 |
|
Ceddanne Rafaela | 43 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 120 | 0.165 | 87.3 | 9.1% | 15.6% vs RHP | 370 | 9.8% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 33 |
| 5 |
|
Marcelo Mayer | 34 | ⚪ D | +1000 | 🌧️ COOL | 183 | 0.092 | 86.8 | 8.8% | 3.0% vs RHP | 388 | 4.5% | 12.5% | 6.3% | 22 |
| 6 |
|
Caleb Durbin ⚡ | 31 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 192 | 0.118 | 85.6 | 6.0% | 11.1% vs RHP | 396 | 3.4% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 36 |
| 7 |
|
Connor Wong | 29 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 200 | 0.114 | 87.1 | 6.6% | 0.0% vs RHP | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.6% | 12 |
| 8 |
|
Mickey Gasper | 26 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 211 | 0.060 | 91.1 | 7.8% | 0.0% vs RHP | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.9% | 26 |
| 9 |
|
Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 25 | ⚪ D | · | · | 214 | 0.064 | 83.6 | 6.6% | 0.0% vs RHP | 393 | 5.6% | 0.0% | 5.6% | 32 |
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Joc Pederson | 52 | 🟠 C | · | 🌤️ WARM | 71 | 0.214 | 91.7 | 9.0% | 21.1% vs RHP | 386 | 13.3% | 18.2% | 17.2% | 32 |
| 2 |
|
Jake Burger | 46 | ⚪ D | +900 | 🌧️ COOL | 99 | 0.193 | 90.3 | 8.9% | 23.5% vs RHP | 394 | 13.3% | 0.0% | 13.7% | 33 |
| 3 |
|
Brandon Nimmo | 42 | ⚪ D | +950 | 🌤️ WARM | 128 | 0.150 | 92.1 | 9.5% | 14.6% vs RHP | 411 | 9.7% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 35 |
| 4 |
|
Kyle Higashioka | 41 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 131 | 0.157 | 89.1 | 9.4% | 16.7% vs RHP | 401 | 8.3% | 0.0% | 12.2% | 17 |
| 5 |
|
Josh Jung | 41 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 132 | 0.162 | 89.3 | 6.7% | 17.6% vs RHP | 387 | 13.1% | 16.7% | 10.8% | 40 |
| 6 |
|
Wyatt Langford | 37 | ⚪ D | +950 | 🌤️ WARM | 157 | 0.132 | 89.2 | 7.3% | 5.9% vs RHP | 373 | 5.1% | 20.0% | 9.2% | 16 |
| 7 |
|
Ezequiel Duran | 37 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 164 | 0.161 | 89.9 | 7.1% | 12.5% vs RHP | 370 | 7.4% | 0.0% | 9.9% | 34 |
| 8 |
|
Evan Carter | 37 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 165 | 0.144 | 88.0 | 7.6% | 12.8% vs RHP | 368 | 11.4% | 0.0% | 8.2% | 20 |
| 9 |
|
Nicky Lopez | 23 | ⚪ D | +900 | 🌧️ COOL | 221 | 0.105 | 85.3 | · | 20.0% vs RHP | 397 | 10.0% | 12.5% | 8.2% | 22 |