STL
@
7:15p
ATL
Stadium Conditions
Truist Park
First pitch 7:15p
· roof open
Park 0.93×
Wind 2 mph cross
75°F
open
-9
10 mph · in
87°F
7:15p
Suppress for HR environment
-3
9 mph · cross
84°F
8:15p
Neutral for HR environment
-1
7 mph · cross
82°F
9:15p
Neutral for HR environment
-1
4 mph · slight_out
79°F
10:15p
Neutral for HR environment
-1
2 mph · slight_out
77°F
11:15p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Soft suppress · Combined 0.93
75°F, wind 2 mph NW (cross) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.
7 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Matt Olson | 53 | 🟠 C | +330 | ❄ COLD | 28 | 0.265 | 92.8 | 9.9% | 29.2% vs RHP | 409 | 20.2% | 0.0% | 16.7% | 30 |
| 2 |
|
Drake Baldwin ⚡ | 48 | ⚪ D | +400 | ❄ COLD | 51 | 0.203 | 91.3 | 10.9% | 28.0% vs RHP | 407 | 19.0% | 0.0% | 13.7% | 24 |
| 3 |
|
Ozzie Albies | 37 | ⚪ D | +575 | · | 96 | 0.156 | 87.1 | 5.2% | 12.3% vs RHP | 383 | 13.1% | 16.7% | 12.9% | 41 |
| 4 |
|
Austin Riley | 37 | ⚪ D | +500 | ❄ COLD | 100 | 0.148 | 90.8 | 8.4% | 13.5% vs RHP | 409 | 7.2% | 0.0% | 7.4% | 25 |
| 5 |
|
Mike Yastrzemski | 35 | ⚪ D | +625 | 🌤️ WARM | 107 | 0.139 | 90.2 | 5.4% | 15.4% vs RHP | 374 | 7.5% | 12.5% | 10.9% | 15 |
| 6 |
|
Dominic Smith | 34 | ⚪ D | +700 | ❄ COLD | 113 | 0.135 | 87.9 | 7.0% | 14.3% vs RHP | 390 | 7.7% | 0.0% | 7.7% | 20 |
| 7 |
|
Mauricio Dubon | 31 | ⚪ D | +950 | ❄ COLD | 123 | 0.147 | 86.5 | 6.1% | 13.5% vs RHP | 392 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.4% | 41 |
ATL Bullpen Proxy
1.08 HR/9
· FIP-xFIP +0.00
·
7 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Jordan Walker | 54 | 🟠 C | +390 | ❄ COLD | 36 | 0.228 | 93.6 | 13.2% | 25.3% | 408 | 16.9% | 0.0% | 14.4% | 23 |
| 2 |
|
Alec Burleson | 48 | ⚪ D | +390 | 🌧️ COOL | 67 | 0.194 | 91.9 | 11.0% | 13.8% | 405 | 16.5% | 0.0% | 10.7% | 32 |
| 3 |
|
Nathan Church | 39 | ⚪ D | +700 | · | 106 | 0.146 | 86.3 | 9.1% | 13.0% | 388 | 7.7% | 11.1% | 8.0% | 22 |
| 4 |
|
Ivan Herrera | 35 | ⚪ D | +575 | 🌧️ COOL | 121 | 0.158 | 89.4 | 6.6% | 15.1% | 406 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.9% | 29 |
| 5 |
|
Jj Wetherholt | 35 | ⚪ D | +500 | ❄ COLD | 122 | 0.141 | 90.1 | 6.8% | 12.9% | 389 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.0% | 39 |
| 6 |
|
Pedro Pages | 32 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 131 | 0.131 | 87.0 | 5.8% | 10.5% | 403 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.6% | 7 |
| 7 |
|
Masyn Winn | 27 | ⚪ D | +850 | · | 136 | 0.086 | 87.4 | 3.2% | 4.8% | 389 | 3.8% | 9.1% | 6.2% | 33 |