⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 6 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 7 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 8 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 9 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 10 James Wood 4 HRs · 11 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 12 Ketel Marte 4 HRs 1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 6 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 7 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 8 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 9 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 10 James Wood 4 HRs · 11 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 12 Ketel Marte 4 HRs
SF
@ 12:40p
CIN
Great American Ball Park · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
1.24×
Weather Mod
+2.0%
warm air · steady crosswind · roof open
Combined
1.492
Temp
78.3°F
Wind
12.1 mph
cross
Roof
open
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Sal Stewart Sal Stewart 80 🟢 A · · 6 0.379 93.4 21.3% 36.8% 391 0.0% 0.0% 34.2% 34
2 Elly De La Cruz Elly De La Cruz 80 🟢 A · · 7 0.280 94.7 15.2% 40.0% 377 25.0% 20.0% 34.1% 33
3 Spencer Steer Spencer Steer 70 🟡 B · · 24 0.200 87.6 17.9% 17.6% 394 12.5% 20.0% 22.3% 30
4 Eugenio Suárez Eugenio Suárez 48 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 55 0.152 85.6 10.3% 27.3% 421 33.3% 0.0% 10.8% 30
5 Ke'Bryan Hayes Ke'Bryan Hayes 29 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 109 0.000 91.3 5.3% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% 26
6 Matt McLain Matt McLain 25 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 127 0.045 87.7 8.7% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 6.4% 34
7 TJ Friedl TJ Friedl 17 ⚪ D · · 159 0.000 84.1 0.0% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 32
8 Rece Hinds Rece Hinds 13 ⚪ D · · 167 · · 0.0% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 10.7% 3
9 P.J. Higgins 13 ⚪ D · · 168 · · 0.0% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 10.7% 4
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Willy Adames Willy Adames 71 🟡 B · · 21 0.247 88.4 12.0% 17.6% 375 15.4% 11.1% 24.4% 34
2 Casey Schmitt Casey Schmitt 56 🟠 C · · 42 0.163 93.3 10.7% 10.0% 385 0.0% 0.0% 13.1% 19
3 Rafael Devers Rafael Devers 49 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 52 0.095 90.7 10.9% 12.5% 408 0.0% 0.0% 12.5% 33
4 Jung Hoo Lee Jung Hoo Lee 44 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 65 0.139 88.9 2.0% 7.7% 361 7.7% 11.1% 10.1% 36
5 Matt Chapman Matt Chapman 43 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 69 0.122 88.7 3.8% 16.7% 349 7.7% 0.0% 10.6% 41
6 Will Brennan Will Brennan 31 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 104 0.107 89.4 0.0% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% 2
7 Luis Arraez Luis Arraez 30 ⚪ D · · 107 0.075 85.4 0.0% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 40
8 Patrick Bailey Patrick Bailey 27 ⚪ D · · 116 0.000 89.1 5.3% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 11.8% 26
9 Drew Gilbert Drew Gilbert 22 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 136 0.035 73.3 0.0% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 12.4% 2
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.85

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.