SF
@
9:40p
AZ
Stadium Conditions
Chase Field
First pitch 6:40p
· roof retractable
Park 0.90×
Wind 2 mph out
78°F
retractable
-9
14 mph · cross
94°F
6:40p
Suppress for HR environment
-9
13 mph · cross
93°F
7:40p
Suppress for HR environment
-10
13 mph · cross
91°F
8:40p
Suppress for HR environment
-10
13 mph · cross
88°F
9:40p
Suppress for HR environment
-10
12 mph · in
85°F
10:40p
Suppress for HR environment
⚪ Neutral · Combined 0.99
78°F, wind 2 mph NNE (out) — modifier: +1 — mild park boost, weather flat.
AZ Bullpen Proxy
1.31 HR/9
· FIP-xFIP +0.00
·
8 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Rafael Devers | 52 | 🟠 C | · | 🌤️ WARM | 66 | 0.210 | 92.0 | 10.5% | 15.6% | 400 | 14.3% | 21.4% | 20.1% | 29 |
| 2 |
|
Casey Schmitt | 52 | 🟠 C | · | 🌤️ WARM | 73 | 0.217 | 89.5 | 12.1% | 14.5% | 394 | 16.5% | 7.7% | 12.1% | 34 |
| 3 |
|
Willy Adames | 50 | 🟠 C | · | 🌧️ COOL | 77 | 0.202 | 88.4 | 9.3% | 13.3% | 389 | 15.0% | 21.4% | 18.8% | 28 |
| 4 |
|
Heliot Ramos | 48 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 98 | 0.156 | 92.1 | 13.2% | 13.3% | 399 | 10.6% | 50.0% | 10.7% | 2 |
| 5 |
|
Matt Chapman | 36 | ⚪ D | · | · | 182 | 0.148 | 88.4 | 6.7% | 10.7% | 398 | 6.2% | 0.0% | 7.8% | 22 |
| 6 |
|
Jung Hoo Lee | 32 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 199 | 0.147 | 87.7 | 2.7% | 9.2% | 378 | 5.4% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 38 |
| 7 |
|
Drew Gilbert | 29 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 214 | 0.124 | 85.7 | 2.3% | 7.1% | 393 | 2.5% | 0.0% | 6.6% | 22 |
| 8 |
|
Luis Arraez | 23 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 222 | 0.120 | 87.2 | 0.3% | 2.8% | 357 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.0% | 35 |
7 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Ketel Marte | 45 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 116 | 0.206 | 91.5 | 6.3% | 14.3% vs RHP | 415 | 16.7% | 38.5% | 18.5% | 39 |
| 2 |
|
Corbin Carroll | 45 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 117 | 0.249 | 91.4 | 6.6% | 24.4% vs RHP | 406 | 15.6% | 7.7% | 14.7% | 33 |
| 3 |
|
Gabriel Moreno | 35 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 188 | 0.188 | 90.3 | 5.6% | 17.1% vs RHP | 395 | 10.3% | 0.0% | 9.8% | 25 |
| 4 |
|
Nolan Arenado | 32 | ⚪ D | · | · | 204 | 0.156 | 84.9 | 4.7% | 15.0% vs RHP | 400 | 10.4% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 33 |
| 5 |
|
Ildemaro Vargas | 29 | ⚪ D | · | · | 211 | 0.156 | 86.7 | 3.7% | 10.7% vs RHP | 399 | 6.8% | 0.0% | 7.9% | 23 |
| 6 |
|
Adrian Del Castillo ⚡ | 29 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 212 | 0.111 | 89.4 | 4.6% | 15.4% vs RHP | 396 | 7.3% | 0.0% | 7.1% | 17 |
| 7 |
|
Geraldo Perdomo | 26 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 220 | 0.113 | 87.0 | 3.4% | 10.0% vs RHP | 388 | 5.8% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 33 |