2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs 1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs
SF
@ 7:15p
ATL
Truist Park · 14 ranked batters
Stadium Conditions

Truist Park

First pitch 7:15p · roof open
Park 0.97× Wind 8 mph out 74°F open
-8
10 mph · in
78°F
7:15p
Suppress for HR environment
-8
10 mph · in
78°F
8:15p
Suppress for HR environment
-8
10 mph · in
78°F
9:15p
Suppress for HR environment
-8
10 mph · in
78°F
10:15p
Suppress for HR environment
-8
10 mph · in
78°F
11:15p
Suppress for HR environment
⚪ Boost · Combined 1.16

74°F, wind 8 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +2. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

Landen Roupp
Landen Roupp RHP
0.49 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP -0.27 ·
7 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Matt Olson Matt Olson 62 🔵 C+ · 🌧️ COOL 22 0.297 93.5 7.2% 32.6% vs RHP 409 23.6% 15.4% 27.7% 31
2 Drake Baldwin Drake Baldwin 53 🟠 C · ❄ COLD 38 0.238 92.8 8.2% 26.1% vs RHP 402 23.5% 0.0% 18.7% 3
3 Austin Riley Austin Riley 37 ⚪ D · · 94 0.168 90.8 6.1% 14.3% vs RHP 409 8.5% 0.0% 9.4% 25
4 Dominic Smith Dominic Smith 34 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 106 0.148 88.8 5.1% 14.6% vs RHP 390 8.8% 9.1% 8.1% 31
5 Ozzie Albies Ozzie Albies 33 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 109 0.156 87.0 4.0% 12.8% vs RHP 390 12.5% 0.0% 8.3% 32
6 Mike Yastrzemski Mike Yastrzemski 29 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 118 0.141 90.6 3.7% 14.3% vs RHP 374 6.7% 0.0% 7.7% 19
7 Mauricio Dubon Mauricio Dubon 28 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 120 0.136 86.3 4.6% 15.2% vs RHP 393 0.0% 0.0% 13.1% 32
Martín Pérez
Martín Pérez LHP
0.87 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP +0.08 ·
7 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Casey Schmitt Casey Schmitt 57 🟠 C · 🌧️ COOL 28 0.232 89.2 9.2% 16.7% vs LHP 393 17.4% 15.4% 21.0% 41
2 Willy Adames Willy Adames 52 🟠 C · · 42 0.192 89.0 7.9% 10.0% vs LHP 385 15.9% 25.0% 18.0% 28
3 Rafael Devers Rafael Devers 47 ⚪ D · · 59 0.176 91.9 8.2% 10.5% vs LHP 401 11.9% 15.4% 13.3% 30
4 Matt Chapman Matt Chapman 45 ⚪ D · 🔥 HOT 68 0.166 88.3 7.0% 22.2% vs LHP 398 7.1% 23.1% 18.4% 32
5 Drew Gilbert Drew Gilbert 30 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 116 0.136 85.4 4.3% 8.3% 393 3.2% 0.0% 7.4% 20
6 Jung Hoo Lee Jung Hoo Lee 29 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 119 0.123 87.6 4.0% 8.3% vs LHP 363 4.8% 0.0% 7.1% 44
7 Luis Arraez Luis Arraez 23 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 127 0.114 · 1.7% 5.0% vs LHP · 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% 51
🏟️
Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

11 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.3.16 · build 501

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.