2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs 1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs
SEA
@ 4:05p
WSH
Nationals Park · 15 ranked batters
Stadium Conditions

Nationals Park

First pitch 4:05p · roof open
Park 1.09× Wind 6 mph in 88°F open
+6
5 mph · slight_out
73°F
4:05p
Boost for HR environment
+6
5 mph · slight_out
73°F
5:05p
Boost for HR environment
+6
5 mph · slight_out
73°F
6:05p
Boost for HR environment
+6
5 mph · slight_out
73°F
7:05p
Boost for HR environment
+6
5 mph · slight_out
73°F
8:05p
Boost for HR environment
⚪ Boost · Combined 1.30

88°F, wind 6 mph WSW (in) — modifier: +2. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

Luis Castillo
Luis Castillo RHP
1.11 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP -0.08 ·
8 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 James Wood James Wood 82 🟢 A · 🌧️ COOL 4 0.250 95.9 16.5% 34.2% vs RHP 408 29.4% 33.3% 34.0% 27
2 Curtis Mead Curtis Mead 67 🔵 C+ · · 24 0.240 89.2 10.9% 25.0% vs RHP 398 18.8% 20.0% 22.6% 32
3 Cj Abrams Cj Abrams 57 🟠 C · 🌧️ COOL 51 0.230 90.0 10.8% 28.6% vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 22.0% 33
4 Dylan Crews Dylan Crews 52 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 74 0.099 91.6 10.4% 14.3% vs RHP 423 23.1% 28.6% 12.4% 28
5 Daylen Lile Daylen Lile 50 🟠 C · · 79 0.164 87.9 9.2% 12.9% vs RHP 403 10.0% 8.3% 10.6% 39
6 Jose Tena Jose Tena 45 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 111 0.136 92.2 10.3% 16.7% vs RHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 12
7 Drew Millas Drew Millas 41 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 133 0.085 82.3 6.5% 16.7% vs RHP 398 6.7% 33.3% 15.1% 10
8 Nasim Nunez Nasim Nunez 16 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 229 0.025 84.8 · 0.0% vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% 19
Cade Cavalli
Cade Cavalli RHP
0.61 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP -0.45 ·
7 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Dominic Canzone Dominic Canzone 74 🟡 B · 🌤️ WARM 10 0.267 93.1 11.8% 29.0% vs RHP 403 15.4% 50.0% 29.6% 35
2 Luke Raley Luke Raley 71 🟡 B · ❄ COLD 16 0.270 90.6 11.9% 40.6% vs RHP 385 20.8% 20.0% 27.1% 29
3 Colt Emerson Colt Emerson 67 🔵 C+ · 🌤️ WARM 22 0.292 87.8 7.3% 50.0% vs RHP 367 16.7% 25.0% 35.1% 22
4 Julio Rodríguez Julio Rodríguez 53 🟠 C · · 70 0.192 90.5 8.6% 18.2% vs RHP 410 19.6% 8.3% 12.4% 42
5 Mitch Garver Mitch Garver 50 🟠 C · 🌧️ COOL 80 0.155 89.9 7.6% 20.0% vs RHP 394 10.0% 33.3% 17.2% 12
6 Josh Naylor Josh Naylor 41 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 138 0.109 87.6 6.6% 16.2% vs RHP 390 12.0% 25.0% 11.2% 44
7 Cole Young Cole Young 40 ⚪ D · · 141 0.128 88.0 6.6% 7.9% vs RHP 387 7.6% 16.7% 7.2% 51
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