SD
@
4:05p
BAL
Stadium Conditions
Camden Yards
First pitch 4:05p
· roof open
Park 1.16×
Wind 6 mph slight_out
88°F
open
+3
5 mph · cross
73°F
4:05p
Neutral for HR environment
+3
5 mph · cross
73°F
5:05p
Neutral for HR environment
+3
5 mph · cross
73°F
6:05p
Neutral for HR environment
+3
5 mph · cross
73°F
7:05p
Neutral for HR environment
+3
5 mph · cross
73°F
8:05p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Boost · Combined 1.39
88°F, wind 6 mph N (slight_out) — modifier: +2. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Pete Alonso | 76 | 🟡 B | · | · | 7 | 0.211 | 94.9 | 13.1% | 24.4% vs RHP | 399 | 18.8% | 30.8% | 31.6% | 39 |
| 2 |
|
Colton Cowser | 73 | 🟡 B | · | 🌤️ WARM | 11 | 0.185 | 86.0 | 13.6% | 23.1% vs RHP | 418 | 20.0% | 40.0% | 24.0% | 29 |
| 3 |
|
Samuel Basallo | 69 | 🔵 C+ | · | 🌧️ COOL | 19 | 0.205 | 92.2 | 13.6% | 27.6% vs RHP | 400 | 15.2% | 11.1% | 16.5% | 23 |
| 4 |
|
Jackson Holliday | 64 | 🔵 C+ | · | 🌤️ WARM | 29 | 0.193 | 88.9 | 14.5% | 23.1% vs RHP | 378 | 3.7% | 8.3% | 14.8% | 25 |
| 5 |
|
Gunnar Henderson | 64 | 🔵 C+ | · | 🌧️ COOL | 30 | 0.195 | 89.1 | 11.1% | 15.6% vs RHP | 390 | 19.4% | 7.7% | 13.7% | 42 |
| 6 |
|
Blaze Alexander | 49 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 81 | 0.113 | 92.8 | 9.4% | 10.0% vs RHP | 393 | 4.8% | 14.3% | 9.7% | 21 |
| 7 |
|
Tyler O'Neill | 44 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 113 | 0.092 | 87.9 | 9.2% | 11.8% vs RHP | 397 | 8.0% | 0.0% | 9.9% | 14 |
| 8 |
|
Taylor Ward | 44 | ⚪ D | · | · | 117 | 0.098 | 89.7 | 8.1% | 5.7% vs RHP | 386 | 4.3% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 35 |
| 9 |
|
Leody Taveras | 42 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 131 | 0.119 | 86.9 | 7.7% | 13.6% vs RHP | 409 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.9% | 32 |
5 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Gavin Sheets | 66 | 🔵 C+ | · | · | 25 | 0.226 | 89.3 | 10.2% | 31.4% vs RHP | 398 | 11.9% | 9.1% | 19.1% | 27 |
| 2 |
|
Manny Machado | 62 | 🔵 C+ | · | · | 35 | 0.168 | 89.9 | 9.9% | 25.0% vs RHP | 393 | 16.1% | 16.7% | 14.6% | 40 |
| 3 |
|
Jackson Merrill | 55 | 🟠 C | · | · | 59 | 0.133 | 89.8 | 10.9% | 9.8% vs RHP | 410 | 9.8% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 37 |
| 4 |
|
Xander Bogaerts ⚡ | 53 | 🟠 C | · | 🌤️ WARM | 66 | 0.126 | 88.2 | 9.0% | 21.2% vs RHP | 395 | 11.7% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 24 |
| 5 |
|
Freddy Fermin | 47 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 91 | 0.116 | 86.5 | 6.0% | 4.8% vs RHP | 382 | 5.9% | 16.7% | 14.3% | 21 |