2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs 1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs
SEA
@ 7:05p
BAL
Camden Yards · 17 ranked batters
Stadium Conditions

Camden Yards

First pitch 7:05p · roof open
Park 1.13× Wind 7 mph out 94°F open
+2
5 mph · cross
73°F
7:05p
Neutral for HR environment
+2
5 mph · cross
73°F
8:05p
Neutral for HR environment
+2
5 mph · cross
73°F
9:05p
Neutral for HR environment
+2
5 mph · cross
73°F
10:05p
Neutral for HR environment
+2
5 mph · cross
73°F
11:05p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Boost · Combined 1.70

94°F, wind 7 mph WNW (out) — modifier: +5. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

Kyle Bradish
Kyle Bradish RHP
0.99 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP +0.10 ·
8 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Luke Raley Luke Raley 78 🟡 B +1000 🌧️ COOL 5 0.264 90.2 13.1% 40.6% vs RHP 384 19.6% 22.2% 34.0% 26
2 Dominic Canzone Dominic Canzone 76 🟡 B · 🌤️ WARM 7 0.261 93.1 12.3% 30.0% vs RHP 404 12.0% 33.3% 33.6% 29
3 Colt Emerson Colt Emerson 68 🔵 C+ · 🌤️ WARM 10 0.306 88.0 6.8% 50.0% vs RHP 357 10.0% 16.7% 39.5% 18
4 Julio Rodríguez Julio Rodríguez 63 🔵 C+ +750 🌤️ WARM 17 0.196 90.4 9.3% 18.2% vs RHP 410 20.4% 18.2% 25.1% 39
5 Randy Arozarena Randy Arozarena 53 🟠 C +950 🌤️ WARM 36 0.169 91.6 8.5% 17.9% vs RHP 385 9.4% 9.1% 13.8% 41
6 Josh Naylor Josh Naylor 45 ⚪ D +950 🌧️ COOL 71 0.113 87.7 6.9% 16.2% vs RHP 391 10.4% 18.2% 9.5% 39
7 Cole Young Cole Young 43 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 77 0.121 87.6 6.9% 7.9% vs RHP 393 6.2% 9.1% 8.1% 46
8 Jhonny Pereda Jhonny Pereda 42 ⚪ D · · 80 0.109 90.7 6.5% 16.7% vs RHP 390 12.5% 0.0% 10.6% 22
Bryan Woo
Bryan Woo RHP
0.76 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP -0.73 ·
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Pete Alonso Pete Alonso 60 🔵 C+ +900 · 21 0.195 95.0 9.1% 22.7% vs RHP 396 17.9% 25.0% 22.2% 40
2 Coby Mayo Coby Mayo 59 🟠 C +850 🌤️ WARM 23 0.187 91.8 8.6% 13.0% vs RHP 407 16.4% 44.4% 18.8% 22
3 Colton Cowser Colton Cowser 58 🟠 C +1000 · 26 0.173 85.9 9.3% 24.0% vs RHP 418 17.9% 37.5% 21.4% 32
4 Adley Rutschman Adley Rutschman 56 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 29 0.215 90.4 8.2% 17.9% vs RHP 400 14.7% 11.1% 14.6% 35
5 Samuel Basallo Samuel Basallo 55 🟠 C +950 🌧️ COOL 33 0.210 92.1 9.2% 27.6% vs RHP 401 13.6% 0.0% 16.0% 23
6 Gunnar Henderson Gunnar Henderson 52 🟠 C · 🌧️ COOL 43 0.199 89.1 7.8% 15.9% vs RHP 390 18.5% 0.0% 13.2% 43
7 Jackson Holliday Jackson Holliday 50 🟠 C +900 🌤️ WARM 51 0.164 88.8 10.2% 18.2% vs RHP 378 4.0% 9.1% 17.4% 26
8 Taylor Ward Taylor Ward 35 ⚪ D · · 97 0.100 89.6 5.8% 5.7% vs RHP 386 4.4% 8.3% 7.0% 38
9 Leody Taveras Leody Taveras 33 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 103 0.118 86.8 5.5% 13.6% vs RHP 409 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 34
🏟️
Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

14 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.3.16 · build 501

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.