2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs 1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs
ATL
@ 7:40p
CWS
Rate Field · 16 ranked batters
Stadium Conditions

Rate Field

First pitch 7:40p · roof unknown
Park 0.96× Wind unknown unknown
Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.
⚪ Neutral · Combined 0.96

Unknown stadium — mild park boost, weather flat.

Anthony Kay
Anthony Kay LHP
1.54 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP +0.65 ·
8 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Matt Olson Matt Olson 77 🟡 B · 🌤️ WARM 6 0.303 93.8 12.6% 18.8% vs LHP 409 24.6% 25.0% 25.3% 39
2 Jorge Mateo Jorge Mateo 61 🔵 C+ · 🌤️ WARM 19 0.179 90.4 11.1% 22.2% vs LHP 399 16.7% 28.6% 21.9% 20
3 Austin Riley Austin Riley 51 🟠 C · · 49 0.172 90.8 10.5% 21.4% vs LHP 409 9.4% 0.0% 12.3% 28
4 Eli White Eli White 49 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 57 0.164 87.3 8.6% 11.1% vs LHP 355 16.7% 0.0% 12.8% 5
5 Ozzie Albies Ozzie Albies 48 ⚪ D · · 61 0.166 86.8 6.9% 14.8% vs LHP 390 13.8% 16.7% 11.0% 41
6 Mauricio Dubon Mauricio Dubon 41 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 82 0.146 86.6 8.3% 5.0% vs LHP 393 0.0% 0.0% 13.9% 31
7 Ha-Seong Kim Ha-Seong Kim 20 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 123 0.000 85.0 5.3% 0.0% vs LHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 9
8 Sandy Leon Sandy Leon 12 ⚪ D · · 126 0.000 82.1 · 0.0% 0 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 8
Martín Pérez
Martín Pérez LHP
0.95 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP +0.08 ·
8 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Randal Grichuk Randal Grichuk 67 🔵 C+ · 🌧️ COOL 12 0.284 90.2 10.1% 27.8% vs LHP 384 20.0% 20.0% 28.4% 20
2 Miguel Vargas Miguel Vargas 65 🔵 C+ · · 14 0.246 89.8 10.4% 41.2% vs LHP 391 24.0% 25.0% 32.0% 38
3 Colson Montgomery Colson Montgomery 65 🔵 C+ · · 15 0.243 89.8 10.3% 28.6% vs LHP 394 28.3% 33.3% 28.4% 22
4 Everson Pereira Everson Pereira 51 🟠 C · · 48 0.229 87.8 9.4% 22.2% 407 9.5% 0.0% 17.8% 0
5 Chase Meidroth Chase Meidroth 33 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 104 0.123 87.6 6.4% 10.0% vs LHP 384 5.9% 0.0% 7.2% 38
6 Sam Antonacci Sam Antonacci 29 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 111 0.095 87.9 7.1% 3.0% 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.4% 35
7 Edgar Quero Edgar Quero 25 ⚪ D · 🔥 HOT 118 0.053 90.5 3.9% 11.1% vs LHP 389 5.4% 16.7% 8.2% 18
8 Luisangel Acuna Luisangel Acuna 18 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 124 0.017 89.4 4.9% 0.0% vs LHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 16
🏟️
Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

13 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.3.16 · build 501

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.