2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Junior Caminero 7 HRs · 2 Dansby Swanson 6 HRs · 3 Ketel Marte 6 HRs · 4 Brandon Marsh 5 HRs · 5 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 6 Joc Pederson 5 HRs · 7 Hunter Goodman 5 HRs · 8 Bryce Harper 5 HRs · 9 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 10 Kerry Carpenter 4 HRs · 11 Michael Busch 4 HRs · 12 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs 1 Junior Caminero 7 HRs · 2 Dansby Swanson 6 HRs · 3 Ketel Marte 6 HRs · 4 Brandon Marsh 5 HRs · 5 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 6 Joc Pederson 5 HRs · 7 Hunter Goodman 5 HRs · 8 Bryce Harper 5 HRs · 9 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 10 Kerry Carpenter 4 HRs · 11 Michael Busch 4 HRs · 12 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs
SD
@ 10:10p
LAD
Dodger Stadium · 15 ranked batters
Stadium Conditions

Dodger Stadium

First pitch 7:10p · roof open
Park 1.22× Wind 2 mph slight_out 61°F open
+13
6 mph · out
72°F
7:10p
Boost for HR environment
+11
5 mph · out
70°F
8:10p
Boost for HR environment
+10
4 mph · out
69°F
9:10p
Boost for HR environment
+10
4 mph · out
68°F
10:10p
Boost for HR environment
+8
3 mph · out
67°F
11:10p
Boost for HR environment
⚪ Elevated · Combined 1.09

61°F, wind 2 mph SE (slight_out) — modifier: -1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

Randy Vásquez
Randy Vásquez RHP
1.71 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP +0.60 ·
8 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Shohei Ohtani Shohei Ohtani 75 🟡 B +186 · 3 0.245 93.8 15.0% 25.5% vs RHP 406 18.5% 25.0% 35.1% 34
2 Max Muncy Max Muncy 71 🟡 B +280 ❄ COLD 5 0.244 90.2 14.1% 25.4% vs RHP 409 19.4% 20.0% 22.8% 55
3 Freddie Freeman Freddie Freeman 64 🔵 C+ +330 · 12 0.198 90.7 12.6% 19.0% vs RHP 396 14.6% 16.7% 17.5% 36
4 Mookie Betts Mookie Betts 63 🔵 C+ +425 · 14 0.194 90.4 10.7% 20.0% vs RHP 385 13.6% 33.3% 28.9% 40
5 Andy Pages Andy Pages 62 🔵 C+ +350 🌧️ COOL 17 0.202 89.2 11.1% 24.5% vs RHP 389 15.7% 8.3% 18.8% 37
6 Teoscar Hernandez Teoscar Hernandez 55 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 24 0.177 90.0 11.9% 25.0% vs RHP 383 0.0% 0.0% 20.7% 5
7 Kyle Tucker Kyle Tucker 50 🟠 C +475 🌤️ WARM 43 0.135 89.1 8.9% 11.3% vs RHP 399 6.2% 10.0% 9.6% 21
8 Alex Freeland Alex Freeland 46 ⚪ D +700 ❄ COLD 62 0.103 88.8 8.8% 10.3% vs RHP 373 3.2% 0.0% 9.2% 21
Roki Sasaki
Roki Sasaki RHP 💥 Meltdown
1.71 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP +0.92 ·
7 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Manny Machado Manny Machado 68 🔵 C+ +370 🌤️ WARM 7 0.205 90.0 10.7% 27.9% vs RHP 395 19.0% 33.3% 34.4% 33
2 Ty France Ty France 67 🔵 C+ +575 · 8 0.226 91.2 11.4% 34.8% vs RHP 393 17.2% 27.3% 40.5% 26
3 Gavin Sheets Gavin Sheets 66 🔵 C+ +400 🌤️ WARM 9 0.234 89.3 10.0% 35.7% vs RHP 397 13.9% 25.0% 41.0% 24
4 Jackson Merrill Jackson Merrill 52 🟠 C +475 ❄ COLD 32 0.131 89.9 10.2% 12.2% vs RHP 407 10.3% 0.0% 10.5% 35
5 Miguel Andujar Miguel Andujar 47 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 55 0.152 88.3 7.1% 16.7% vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 13.3% 20
6 Xander Bogaerts Xander Bogaerts 47 ⚪ D +625 🌧️ COOL 58 0.106 88.0 8.0% 18.4% vs RHP 395 9.1% 0.0% 11.7% 30
7 Freddy Fermin Freddy Fermin 44 ⚪ D +750 ❄ COLD 69 0.108 86.3 5.6% 4.0% vs RHP 382 4.3% 0.0% 9.4% 12
🏟️
Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

12 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.3.44 · build 545

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.