TheHomeRuns.org — MIL @ TB

Neutral air · 1.05×

MIL @ TB

Tropicana Field · 8:00p · 18 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Junior Caminero conv 12 · vs Misiorowski ⟷ Brice Turang conv 9 · vs Proxy → edge: Jake Bauers

ATTACK Jacob Misiorowski RHP · MIL

leak 86

0.72 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.03 · leakiest side of this game

1 Junior Caminero — C ●●○○○

2 Jonathan Aranda — D ●○○○○

3 Nick Fortes — D ●○○○○

FADE TB Bullpen Proxy

leak 53

1.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Brice Turang — D ●○○○○

2 Jackson Chourio — C ●○○○○

3 Jake Bauers — C+ ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jake Bauers: Match 15.9%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TB Junior Caminero vs Misiorowski — 0.247 · 92.7 · 7.3% 0.0% 23.1% F B O C 54

· — Jackson Chourio vs Proxy — 0.195 · 91.6 · 12.3% 0.0% 16.3% F B O C 56

· — Jake Bauers ✶ COOL vs Proxy — 0.218 · 92.1 · 13.9% 0.0% 15.9% F B O C+ 61

Below the fade line · 15 long shots

· — Brice Turang vs Proxy — 0.181 · 90.3 · 7.7% 0.0% 17.7% F B O D 48

· TB Jonathan Aranda COOL vs Misiorowski Edge — 0.160 · 91.1 · 6.3% 0.0% 17.4% F B O D 42

· TB Nick Fortes vs Misiorowski — 0.117 · 85.4 · 3.1% 0.0% 16.2% F B O D 31

· TB Jonny Deluca vs Misiorowski — 0.162 · 85.8 · 3.8% 0.0% 16.0% F B O D 35

· TB Yandy Diaz vs Misiorowski — 0.153 · 90.9 · 5.4% 0.0% 11.8% F B O D 35

· — Garrett Mitchell COOL vs Proxy — 0.153 · 93.2 · 11.7% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 49

· TB Cedric Mullins vs Misiorowski Edge — 0.138 · 88.1 · 4.2% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 35

· — Christian Yelich COOL vs Proxy — 0.142 · 88.9 · 9.6% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 44

· TB Richie Palacios COOL vs Misiorowski Edge — 0.139 · 86.2 · 4.0% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 33

· — William Contreras vs Proxy — 0.147 · 90.3 · 8.5% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 44

· — Joey Ortiz vs Proxy — 0.132 · 89.2 · 4.0% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 36

· — David Hamilton vs Proxy — 0.091 · 86.8 · 3.4% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 31

· — Sal Frelick COOL vs Proxy — 0.089 · 85.7 · 2.3% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 29

· TB Taylor Walls vs Misiorowski Edge — 0.075 · 85.6 · 2.9% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 24

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Misiorowski Edge — 0.049 · 83.7 · — 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 16

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Jacob Misiorowski — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for TB Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Bauers

Legend

attack side — vs Misiorowski fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Tropicana Field

First pitch 8:00p · roof unknown

Park 1.05× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Neutral · Combined 1.05× Dome — weather irrelevant. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jacob Misiorowski · RHP 0.72 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.03 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero 54 C — · 2 0.247 92.7 7.3% 41.5%vs RHP 413 24.5% 0.0% 23.1% 39

2 Jonathan Aranda 42 D — COOL 6 0.160 91.1 6.3% 18.4%vs RHP 390 12.8% 0.0% 17.4% 21

3 Yandy Diaz 35 D — · 9 0.153 90.9 5.4% 23.7%vs RHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 11.8% 39

4 Jonny Deluca 35 D — · 10 0.162 85.8 3.8% 25.0%vs RHP 387 0.0% 0.0% 16.0% 32

5 Cedric Mullins 35 D — WARM 11 0.138 88.1 4.2% 16.5%vs RHP 386 11.5% 0.0% 9.8% 18

6 Richie Palacios 33 D — COOL 12 0.139 86.2 4.0% 19.2%vs RHP 385 8.4% 0.0% 9.1% 25

7 Nick Fortes 31 D — WARM 14 0.117 85.4 3.1% 19.1%vs RHP 386 6.1% 0.0% 16.2% 17

8 Taylor Walls 24 D — WARM 17 0.075 85.6 2.9% 2.1%vs RHP 383 0.8% 0.0% 6.5% 14

9 Chandler Simpson 16 D — COOL 18 0.049 83.7 — 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 42

vs TB Bullpen Proxy 1.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers ✶ 61 C+ — COOL 1 0.218 92.1 13.9% 24.1% 401 18.9% 0.0% 15.9% 21

2 Jackson Chourio 56 C — · 3 0.195 91.6 12.3% 18.2% 400 16.7% 0.0% 16.3% 33

3 Garrett Mitchell 49 D — COOL 4 0.153 93.2 11.7% 20.8% 417 7.8% 0.0% 10.8% 23

4 Brice Turang 48 D — · 5 0.181 90.3 7.7% 20.6% 406 11.8% 0.0% 17.7% 29

5 Christian Yelich 44 D — COOL 7 0.142 88.9 9.6% 17.1% 395 9.2% 0.0% 9.5% 22

6 William Contreras 44 D — · 8 0.147 90.3 8.5% 10.9% 407 11.8% 0.0% 9.0% 32

7 Joey Ortiz 36 D — WARM 13 0.132 89.2 4.0% 11.4% 392 7.4% 0.0% 8.2% 24

8 David Hamilton 31 D — WARM 15 0.091 86.8 3.4% 5.3% 386 3.9% 0.0% 7.3% 17

9 Sal Frelick 29 D — COOL 16 0.089 85.7 2.3% 4.3% 396 3.2% 0.0% 7.2% 22

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.