TheHomeRuns.org — MIL @ LAD

Playable air · 1.05×

MIL @ LAD

Dodger Stadium · 8:00p · 18 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind 5 mph out 77°F Roof open

Hourly window

-2 ↑

5:00p

-2 ↑

6:00p

-2 ↑

7:00p

-2 ↑

8:00p

-2 ↑

9:00p

conditions hold steady across the window · -2 FIT

Best of game Andy Pages conv 12 · vs Gasser ⟷ Jackson Chourio conv 7 · vs Snell → edge: Shohei Ohtani

ATTACK Robert Gasser LHP · MIL

leak 17

1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.04 · leakiest side of this game

1 Andy Pages — C ●●○○○

2 Teoscar Hernandez — D ●●○○○

3 Mookie Betts — C ●○○○○

FADE Blake Snell LHP · LAD

leak 3

0.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.42 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jackson Chourio — D ●○○○○

2 Brice Turang — D ●○○○○

3 Jake Bauers — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Shohei Ohtani: Match 16.5%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· LAD Andy Pages vs Gasser Edge — 0.193 · 88.9 · 7.8% 0.0% 24.2% F B O C 51

· LAD Mookie Betts vs Gasser Edge — 0.197 · 90.2 · 7.7% 0.0% 18.8% F B O C 50

· LAD Shohei Ohtani ✶ HOT vs Gasser — 0.236 · 93.3 · 11.1% 0.0% 16.5% F B O C 59

Below the fade line · 15 long shots

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez vs Gasser Edge — 0.158 · 90.3 · 9.0% 0.0% 20.2% F B O D 45

· LAD Will Smith COOL vs Gasser Edge — 0.166 · 89.1 · 9.7% 0.0% 17.9% F B O D 49

· MIL Jackson Chourio vs Snell Edge — 0.195 · 91.6 · 6.9% 0.0% 13.5% F B O D 46

· MIL Brice Turang vs Snell — 0.181 · 90.3 · 5.4% 0.0% 12.2% F B O D 41

· MIL Jake Bauers COOL vs Snell — 0.218 · 92.1 · 7.3% 0.0% 12.1% F B O D 49

· LAD Kyle Tucker COOL vs Gasser — 0.151 · 88.5 · 6.9% 0.0% 11.9% F B O D 43

· LAD Tommy Edman COOL vs Gasser Edge — 0.138 · 87.3 · 6.3% 0.0% 11.9% F B O D 41

· LAD Miguel Rojas vs Gasser Edge — 0.124 · 87.3 · 6.0% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 39

· LAD Freddie Freeman vs Gasser — 0.142 · 89.5 · 7.8% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 43

· MIL Garrett Mitchell COOL vs Snell — 0.153 · 93.2 · 6.7% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 39

· MIL William Contreras vs Snell Edge — 0.147 · 90.3 · 5.7% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 38

· MIL Christian Yelich COOL vs Snell — 0.142 · 88.9 · 6.1% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 37

· MIL David Hamilton vs Snell — 0.091 · 86.8 · 3.6% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 28

· MIL Joey Ortiz vs Snell Edge — 0.132 · 89.2 · 3.9% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 33

· MIL Sal Frelick COOL vs Snell — 0.089 · 85.7 · 3.0% 0.0% 5.7% F B O D 26

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Blake Snell — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Robert Gasser — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Ohtani

Legend

attack side — vs Gasser fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Dodger Stadium

First pitch 5:00p · roof open

Park 1.05× Wind 5 mph out 77°F open

-2

↑

4 mph · in

78°F

5:00p · peak

-2

↑

4 mph · in

78°F

6:00p

-2

↑

4 mph · in

78°F

7:00p

-2

↑

4 mph · in

78°F

8:00p

-2

↑

4 mph · in

78°F

9:00p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.05× 77°F, wind 5 mph SW (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Blake Snell · LHP 0.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.42 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers 49 D — COOL 5 0.218 92.1 7.3% 25.8%vs LHP 401 18.9% 0.0% 12.1% 21

2 Jackson Chourio 46 D — · 6 0.195 91.6 6.9% 27.3%vs LHP 400 16.7% 0.0% 13.5% 33

3 Brice Turang 41 D — · 10 0.181 90.3 5.4% 14.3%vs LHP 406 11.8% 0.0% 12.2% 29

4 Garrett Mitchell 39 D — COOL 13 0.153 93.2 6.7% 12.5%vs LHP 417 7.8% 0.0% 7.2% 23

5 William Contreras 38 D — · 14 0.147 90.3 5.7% 11.4%vs LHP 407 11.8% 0.0% 6.8% 32

6 Christian Yelich 37 D — COOL 15 0.142 88.9 6.1% 13.3%vs LHP 395 9.2% 0.0% 6.8% 22

7 Joey Ortiz 33 D — WARM 16 0.132 89.2 3.9% 9.1%vs LHP 392 7.4% 0.0% 5.9% 24

8 David Hamilton 28 D — WARM 17 0.091 86.8 3.6% 16.7%vs LHP 386 3.9% 0.0% 6.6% 17

9 Sal Frelick 26 D — COOL 18 0.089 85.7 3.0% 7.7%vs LHP 396 3.2% 0.0% 5.7% 22

vs Robert Gasser · LHP 1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.04 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shohei Ohtani ✶ 59 C — HOT 1 0.236 93.3 11.1% 30.0%vs LHP 407 17.2% 0.0% 16.5% 13

2 Andy Pages 51 C — WARM 2 0.193 88.9 7.8% 20.5%vs LHP 391 15.2% 0.0% 24.2% 13

3 Mookie Betts 50 C — · 3 0.197 90.2 7.7% 16.7%vs LHP 389 13.6% 0.0% 18.8% 45

4 Will Smith 49 D — COOL 4 0.166 89.1 9.7% 9.5%vs LHP 400 11.1% 0.0% 17.9% 27

5 Teoscar Hernandez 45 D — · 7 0.158 90.3 9.0% 21.9%vs LHP 395 0.0% 0.0% 20.2% 32

6 Kyle Tucker 43 D — COOL 8 0.151 88.5 6.9% 11.1%vs LHP 392 9.9% 0.0% 11.9% 43

7 Freddie Freeman 43 D — · 9 0.142 89.5 7.8% 12.8%vs LHP 399 9.0% 0.0% 8.1% 37

8 Tommy Edman 41 D — COOL 11 0.138 87.3 6.3% 23.5%vs LHP 396 10.0% 0.0% 11.9% 36

9 Miguel Rojas 39 D — WARM 12 0.124 87.3 6.0% 12.1%vs LHP 398 8.7% 0.0% 8.7% 23

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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