TheHomeRuns.org — LAD @ MIL

Suppressed air · 0.95×

LAD @ MIL

American Family Field · 8:00p · 18 ranked batters

Park 0.95× Wind 6 mph cross 76°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+0 ↑

7:00p

+0 ↑

8:00p

+0 ↑

9:00p

+0 ↑

10:00p

+0 ↑

11:00p

conditions hold steady across the window · +0 FIT

Best of game Brice Turang conv 8 · vs Skubal ⟷ Andy Pages conv 61 · vs Misiorowski → edge: Andy Pages

ATTACK Tarik Skubal LHP · DET

leak 95

0.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.07 · leakiest side of this game

1 Brice Turang — D ●○○○○

2 Jake Bauers — D ●○○○○

3 Jackson Chourio — D ●○○○○

FADE Jacob Misiorowski RHP · MIL

leak 42

0.72 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.03 · stingy — thin edge

1 Andy Pages — D ●●●●●

2 Will Smith — D ●○○○○

3 Mookie Betts — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Andy Pages: Match 22.0% · 14D pace 100.0% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

Below the fade line · 18 long shots

· LAD Andy Pages ✶ vs Misiorowski — 0.193 · 88.9 · 5.7% 100.0% 22.0% F B O D 43

· LAD Will Smith COOL vs Misiorowski — 0.166 · 89.1 · 7.1% 0.0% 17.3% F B O D 38

· LAD Mookie Betts vs Misiorowski — 0.197 · 90.2 · 5.6% 0.0% 17.0% F B O D 41

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez vs Misiorowski — 0.158 · 90.3 · 6.6% 0.0% 16.9% F B O D 34

· — Brice Turang vs Skubal — 0.181 · 90.3 · 7.2% 0.0% 16.5% F B O D 41

· — Jake Bauers COOL vs Skubal — 0.218 · 92.1 · 9.7% 0.0% 16.4% F B O D 49

· — Jackson Chourio vs Skubal Edge — 0.195 · 91.6 · 9.2% 0.0% 15.4% F B O D 46

· LAD Enrique Hernandez vs Misiorowski — 0.178 · 89.0 · 5.8% 0.0% 15.4% F B O D 34

· LAD Max Muncy COOL vs Misiorowski Edge — 0.238 · 89.9 · 7.2% 0.0% 15.1% F B O D 48

· LAD Shohei Ohtani HOT vs Misiorowski Edge — 0.236 · 93.3 · 8.1% 0.0% 14.8% F B O D 49

· LAD Kyle Tucker COOL vs Misiorowski Edge — 0.151 · 88.5 · 5.1% 0.0% 11.3% F B O D 34

· — Garrett Mitchell COOL vs Skubal — 0.153 · 93.2 · 8.9% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 39

· — William Contreras vs Skubal Edge — 0.147 · 90.3 · 7.6% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 36

· LAD Freddie Freeman vs Misiorowski Edge — 0.142 · 89.5 · 5.8% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 33

· — Andrew Vaughn COOL vs Skubal Edge — 0.138 · 90.1 · 5.9% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 32

· — Joey Ortiz vs Skubal Edge — 0.132 · 89.2 · 5.2% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 31

· — Cooper Pratt COOL vs Skubal Edge — 0.087 · 87.0 · 4.7% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 27

· — Luis Lara COOL vs Skubal Edge — 0.078 · 88.0 · 4.8% 0.0% 5.7% F B O D 26

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Jacob Misiorowski — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Tarik Skubal — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Pages

Legend

attack side — vs Skubal fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Andy Pages — · 43

Stadium conditions

American Family Field

First pitch 7:00p · roof retractable

Park 0.95× Wind 6 mph cross 76°F retractable

↑

5 mph · out

38°F

7:00p · peak

↑

5 mph · out

38°F

8:00p

↑

5 mph · out

38°F

9:00p

↑

5 mph · out

38°F

10:00p

↑

5 mph · out

38°F

11:00p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.95× 76°F, wind 6 mph SSW (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Jacob Misiorowski · RHP 0.72 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.03 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shohei Ohtani 49 D — HOT 2 0.236 93.3 8.1% 24.3%vs RHP 407 17.2% 0.0% 14.8% 13

2 Max Muncy 48 D — COOL 3 0.238 89.9 7.2% 25.4%vs RHP 410 21.4% 0.0% 15.1% 34

3 Andy Pages ✶ 43 D — WARM 5 0.193 88.9 5.7% 20.8%vs RHP 391 15.2% 100.0% 22.0% 13

4 Mookie Betts 41 D — · 6 0.197 90.2 5.6% 16.7%vs RHP 389 13.6% 0.0% 17.0% 45

5 Will Smith 38 D — COOL 9 0.166 89.1 7.1% 14.0%vs RHP 400 11.1% 0.0% 17.3% 27

6 Teoscar Hernandez 34 D — · 11 0.158 90.3 6.6% 15.8%vs RHP 395 0.0% 0.0% 16.9% 32

7 Enrique Hernandez 34 D — · 12 0.178 89.0 5.8% 40.0%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 15.4% 19

8 Kyle Tucker 34 D — COOL 13 0.151 88.5 5.1% 11.0%vs RHP 392 9.9% 0.0% 11.3% 43

9 Freddie Freeman 33 D — · 14 0.142 89.5 5.8% 13.2%vs RHP 399 9.0% 0.0% 7.8% 37

vs Tarik Skubal · LHP 0.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.07 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers 49 D — COOL 1 0.218 92.1 9.7% 25.8%vs LHP 401 18.9% 0.0% 16.4% 21

2 Jackson Chourio 46 D — · 4 0.195 91.6 9.2% 27.3%vs LHP 400 16.7% 0.0% 15.4% 33

3 Brice Turang 41 D — · 7 0.181 90.3 7.2% 14.3%vs LHP 406 11.8% 0.0% 16.5% 29

4 Garrett Mitchell 39 D — COOL 8 0.153 93.2 8.9% 12.5%vs LHP 417 7.8% 0.0% 9.8% 23

5 William Contreras 36 D — · 10 0.147 90.3 7.6% 11.4%vs LHP 407 11.8% 0.0% 7.8% 32

6 Andrew Vaughn 32 D — COOL 15 0.138 90.1 5.9% 8.0%vs LHP 410 7.4% 0.0% 7.0% 8

7 Joey Ortiz 31 D — WARM 16 0.132 89.2 5.2% 9.1%vs LHP 392 7.4% 0.0% 6.8% 24

8 Cooper Pratt 27 D — COOL 17 0.087 87.0 4.7% 8.3%vs LHP 399 6.4% 0.0% 6.6% 27

9 Luis Lara 26 D — COOL 18 0.078 88.0 4.8% 0.0%vs LHP 373 3.6% 0.0% 5.7% 29

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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