2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Wyatt Langford 6 HRs · 2 Junior Caminero 6 HRs · 3 Joc Pederson 5 HRs · 4 Mookie Betts 5 HRs · 5 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 6 Hunter Goodman 4 HRs · 7 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs · 8 Curtis Mead 4 HRs · 9 TJ Rumfield 4 HRs · 10 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 11 Kyle Schwarber 4 HRs · 12 Paul Goldschmidt 4 HRs 1 Wyatt Langford 6 HRs · 2 Junior Caminero 6 HRs · 3 Joc Pederson 5 HRs · 4 Mookie Betts 5 HRs · 5 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 6 Hunter Goodman 4 HRs · 7 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs · 8 Curtis Mead 4 HRs · 9 TJ Rumfield 4 HRs · 10 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 11 Kyle Schwarber 4 HRs · 12 Paul Goldschmidt 4 HRs
DET
@ 7:05p
NYY
Yankee Stadium · 13 ranked batters
Stadium Conditions

Yankee Stadium

First pitch 7:05p · roof open
Park 1.21× Wind 4 mph slight_out 67°F open
+14
9 mph · out
82°F
7:05p
Boost for HR environment
+13
8 mph · slight_out
79°F
8:05p
Boost for HR environment
+12
7 mph · slight_out
77°F
9:05p
Boost for HR environment
+10
6 mph · slight_out
75°F
10:05p
Boost for HR environment
+9
5 mph · slight_out
73°F
11:05p
Boost for HR environment
⚪ Boost · Combined 1.21

67°F, wind 4 mph E (slight_out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

Ryan Weathers
Ryan Weathers LHP 💥 Meltdown
1.69 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP +1.07 ·
8 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Dillon Dingler Dillon Dingler 74 🟡 B +390 🌧️ COOL 2 0.295 90.5 12.5% 27.8% vs LHP 397 21.8% 25.0% 39.6% 38
2 Kerry Carpenter Kerry Carpenter 66 🔵 C+ · · 10 0.247 90.8 11.4% 21.1% 378 17.2% 27.3% 35.0% 25
3 Spencer Torkelson Spencer Torkelson 60 🔵 C+ +330 🌧️ COOL 28 0.189 89.9 12.7% 6.7% vs LHP 394 14.8% 8.3% 20.2% 29
4 Riley Greene Riley Greene 55 🟠 C +425 🌤️ WARM 45 0.151 91.8 12.5% 14.3% vs LHP 393 9.6% 7.7% 11.7% 38
5 Colt Keith Colt Keith 49 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 76 0.122 88.8 9.4% 8.1% 372 4.3% 20.0% 15.6% 32
6 Matt Vierling Matt Vierling 48 ⚪ D +575 · 87 0.137 87.2 8.5% 10.5% vs LHP 377 8.9% 14.3% 11.2% 26
7 Kevin Mcgonigle Kevin Mcgonigle 47 ⚪ D +525 · 90 0.135 88.1 9.8% 10.0% vs LHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% 38
8 Zach Mckinstry Zach Mckinstry 37 ⚪ D +950 🌧️ COOL 154 0.085 84.7 5.2% 4.2% 387 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 31
Casey Mize
Casey Mize RHP
0.59 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP -0.89 ·
5 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Ben Rice Ben Rice 68 🔵 C+ +235 🌧️ COOL 7 0.298 91.6 10.0% 36.0% vs RHP 390 24.3% 25.0% 28.8% 39
2 Paul Goldschmidt Paul Goldschmidt 62 🔵 C+ +500 🌧️ COOL 21 0.255 86.9 9.1% 23.1% vs RHP 391 19.6% 36.4% 34.4% 34
3 Cody Bellinger Cody Bellinger 48 ⚪ D +400 🌧️ COOL 88 0.180 89.1 7.2% 11.9% vs RHP 379 11.8% 7.7% 10.4% 34
4 Austin Wells Austin Wells 39 ⚪ D +425 🌧️ COOL 143 0.089 89.4 6.6% 12.0% vs RHP 377 7.5% 0.0% 7.6% 16
5 Jose Caballero Jose Caballero 38 ⚪ D +750 · 145 0.142 84.3 4.9% 15.4% vs RHP 375 0.0% 0.0% 15.0% 29
🏟️
Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

10 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.3.31 · build 532

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.