2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs 1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs
COL
@ 8:05p
CHC
Wrigley Field · 17 ranked batters
Stadium Conditions

Wrigley Field

First pitch 8:05p · roof open
Park 1.01× Wind 11 mph in 61°F open
-4
5 mph · in
68°F
8:05p
Neutral for HR environment
-4
5 mph · in
68°F
9:05p
Neutral for HR environment
-4
5 mph · in
68°F
10:05p
Neutral for HR environment
-4
5 mph · in
68°F
11:05p
Neutral for HR environment
-4
5 mph · in
68°F
12:05a
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Suppress · Combined 0.60

61°F, wind 11 mph SSE (in) — modifier: -4. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

COL Bullpen Proxy
1.40 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP +0.00 ·
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Ian Happ Ian Happ 75 🟡 B +475 🌧️ COOL 10 0.255 90.1 14.6% 22.1% 403 23.9% 23.1% 28.6% 33
2 Pete Crow-Armstrong Pete Crow-Armstrong 67 🔵 C+ +390 · 22 0.210 91.6 11.5% 14.4% 395 18.1% 46.2% 22.2% 42
3 Seiya Suzuki Seiya Suzuki 56 🟠 C +475 🔥 HOT 59 0.176 89.3 9.5% 18.5% 409 11.8% 27.3% 19.7% 27
4 Michael Busch Michael Busch 54 🟠 C +475 · 72 0.163 88.7 11.6% 11.8% 400 11.0% 15.4% 14.2% 28
5 Matt Shaw Matt Shaw 44 ⚪ D +900 🌤️ WARM 125 0.177 86.6 5.9% 13.8% 357 10.5% 0.0% 11.0% 9
6 Alex Bregman Alex Bregman 39 ⚪ D +700 ❄ COLD 157 0.137 88.0 5.1% 10.7% 395 7.0% 7.7% 8.2% 41
7 Dansby Swanson Dansby Swanson 39 ⚪ D +475 ❄ COLD 158 0.125 89.0 6.6% 9.9% 398 10.0% 0.0% 7.7% 23
8 Carson Kelly Carson Kelly 36 ⚪ D +625 🌧️ COOL 177 0.092 88.8 6.6% 6.7% 418 4.8% 10.0% 7.4% 20
9 Nico Hoerner Nico Hoerner 26 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 213 0.096 85.8 1.1% 5.1% 383 5.6% 0.0% 7.1% 45
Javier Assad
Javier Assad RHP
0.88 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP -0.21 ·
8 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Hunter Goodman Hunter Goodman 69 🔵 C+ +320 · 19 0.285 91.3 8.8% 40.0% vs RHP 403 25.4% 33.3% 25.1% 30
2 Tj Rumfield Tj Rumfield 40 ⚪ D +950 🌧️ COOL 146 0.185 85.0 5.5% 18.8% vs RHP 409 0.0% 0.0% 20.3% 39
3 Ezequiel Tovar Ezequiel Tovar 37 ⚪ D +850 🌤️ WARM 169 0.137 88.1 6.3% 17.5% vs RHP 422 6.1% 8.3% 6.6% 22
4 Jake Mccarthy Jake Mccarthy 34 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 185 0.157 84.9 5.1% 13.8% vs RHP 418 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 24
5 Kyle Karros Kyle Karros 33 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 186 0.118 89.1 5.8% 10.5% vs RHP 408 5.6% 0.0% 5.8% 32
6 Edouard Julien Edouard Julien 32 ⚪ D +950 🌤️ WARM 190 0.106 91.4 5.8% 12.0% vs RHP 389 3.3% 0.0% 8.4% 19
7 Tyler Freeman Tyler Freeman 27 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 210 0.105 87.6 2.7% 5.0% vs RHP 369 4.0% 0.0% 6.6% 16
8 Sterlin Thompson Sterlin Thompson 16 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 231 0.052 87.0 · 0.0% vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 13
🏟️
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