TheHomeRuns.org — CLE @ CWS

Playable air · 1.06×

CLE @ CWS

Rate Field · 8:00p · 18 ranked batters

Park 1.06× Wind 2 mph out 69°F Roof open

Hourly window

+5 ↑

7:00p

+5 ↑

8:00p

+5 ↑

9:00p

+5 ↑

10:00p

+5 ↑

11:00p

conditions hold steady across the window · +5 FIT

Best of game Austin Hedges conv 30 · vs Smith ⟷ Brenton Doyle conv 59 · vs Messick → edge: Munetaka Murakami

ATTACK Hagen Smith LHP · PIT

leak 86

0.32 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.32 · leakiest side of this game

1 Austin Hedges — D ●●●●●

2 Brayan Rocchio — D ●●●○○

3 Jo Adell — D ●●●○○

FADE Parker Messick LHP · CLE

leak 61

0.83 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.19 · stingy — thin edge

1 Brenton Doyle — D ●●●●●

2 Munetaka Murakami — C+ ●●●●○

3 Randal Grichuk — C ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Munetaka Murakami: Match 30.7% · 14D pace 25.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Munetaka Murakami ✶ vs Messick — 0.271 · 93.9 · 10.4% 25.0% 30.7% F B O C+ 63

· CWS Randal Grichuk vs Messick Edge — 0.279 · 91.3 · 7.6% 33.3% 20.7% F B O C 56

· CWS Miguel Vargas COOL vs Messick Edge — 0.224 · 90.1 · 8.2% 0.0% 27.1% F B O C 55

· CWS Colson Montgomery COOL vs Messick — 0.205 · 88.6 · 7.9% 0.0% 15.5% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· CWS Brenton Doyle vs Messick Edge — 0.129 · 89.1 · 5.8% 100.0% 17.3% F B O D 43

· — Austin Hedges vs Smith Edge — 0.130 · 85.8 · 4.6% 50.0% 10.5% F B O D 37

· CWS Kyle Teel vs Messick — 0.151 · 85.7 · 7.7% 33.3% 10.5% F B O D 44

· — Brayan Rocchio COOL vs Smith Edge — 0.139 · 87.0 · 3.6% 33.3% 8.1% F B O D 36

· — Jo Adell vs Smith Edge — 0.160 · 90.4 · 6.4% 25.0% 13.8% F B O D 44

· — Angel Martinez vs Smith Edge — 0.211 · 87.5 · 5.8% 0.0% 19.6% F B O D 42

· — Travis Bazzana vs Smith — 0.163 · 87.6 · 4.9% 0.0% 16.7% F B O D 40

· CWS Tommy Pham vs Messick Edge — 0.100 · 93.6 · 5.3% 0.0% 15.6% F B O D 39

· — Chase Delauter vs Smith — 0.170 · 91.4 · 5.4% 0.0% 15.1% F B O D 38

· — Nathaniel Lowe vs Smith — 0.190 · 89.6 · 6.2% 0.0% 13.8% F B O D 45

· CWS Chase Meidroth COOL vs Messick Edge — 0.139 · 87.2 · 4.9% 0.0% 12.0% F B O D 37

· CWS Braden Montgomery vs Messick Edge — 0.124 · 88.9 · 4.8% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 35

· — Steven Kwan COOL vs Smith — 0.067 · 83.9 · 1.4% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 22

· — Jose Ramirez vs Smith Edge — 0.133 · 88.6 · 4.4% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Parker Messick — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Hagen Smith — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Murakami Grichuk Vargas Teel Doyle Adell Hedges Rocchio

Legend

attack side — vs Smith fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Munetaka Murakami — · 63

Randal Grichuk — · 56

Stadium conditions

Rate Field

First pitch 7:00p · roof open

Park 1.06× Wind 2 mph out 69°F open

↑

6 mph · out

42°F

7:00p · peak

↑

6 mph · out

42°F

8:00p

↑

6 mph · out

42°F

9:00p

↑

6 mph · out

42°F

10:00p

↑

6 mph · out

42°F

11:00p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.06× 69°F, wind 2 mph WNW (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Parker Messick · LHP 0.83 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.19 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami ✶ 63 C+ — WARM 1 0.271 93.9 10.4% 26.9%vs LHP 401 19.0% 25.0% 30.7% 25

2 Randal Grichuk 56 C — · 2 0.279 91.3 7.6% 25.6%vs LHP 391 15.6% 33.3% 20.7% 36

3 Miguel Vargas 55 C — COOL 3 0.224 90.1 8.2% 26.1%vs LHP 393 19.7% 0.0% 27.1% 38

4 Colson Montgomery 50 C — COOL 4 0.205 88.6 7.9% 28.6%vs LHP 397 20.0% 0.0% 15.5% 20

5 Kyle Teel 44 D — · 7 0.151 85.7 7.7% 20.8% 404 15.4% 33.3% 10.5% 22

6 Brenton Doyle 43 D — · 8 0.129 89.1 5.8% 29.4%vs LHP 390 9.1% 100.0% 17.3% 25

7 Tommy Pham 39 D — WARM 11 0.100 93.6 5.3% 20.0% 412 0.0% 0.0% 15.6% 12

8 Chase Meidroth 37 D — COOL 13 0.139 87.2 4.9% 25.0%vs LHP 382 8.6% 0.0% 12.0% 35

9 Braden Montgomery 35 D — · 16 0.124 88.9 4.8% 6.7%vs LHP 395 5.9% 0.0% 7.6% 30

vs Hagen Smith · LHP 0.32 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.32 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Nathaniel Lowe 45 D — WARM 5 0.190 89.6 6.2% 18.3% 395 14.4% 0.0% 13.8% 27

2 Jo Adell 44 D — WARM 6 0.160 90.4 6.4% 32.6%vs LHP 418 13.7% 25.0% 13.8% 42

3 Angel Martinez 42 D — · 9 0.211 87.5 5.8% 24.1%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 19.6% 31

4 Travis Bazzana 40 D — WARM 10 0.163 87.6 4.9% 6.2%vs LHP 393 12.4% 0.0% 16.7% 38

5 Chase Delauter 38 D — · 12 0.170 91.4 5.4% 15.8%vs LHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 15.1% 32

6 Austin Hedges 37 D — WARM 14 0.130 85.8 4.6% 12.5%vs LHP 388 7.5% 50.0% 10.5% 11

7 Brayan Rocchio 36 D — COOL 15 0.139 87.0 3.6% 12.2%vs LHP 381 8.7% 33.3% 8.1% 33

8 Jose Ramirez 32 D — · 17 0.133 88.6 4.4% 14.7%vs LHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 43

9 Steven Kwan 22 D — COOL 18 0.067 83.9 1.4% 0.0%vs LHP 367 2.0% 0.0% 7.0% 41

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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