2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs 1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs
CIN
@ 9:40p
SD
Petco Park · 13 ranked batters
Stadium Conditions

Petco Park

First pitch 9:40p · roof open
Park 0.95× Wind 4 mph cross 72°F open
-12
11 mph · in
75°F
9:40p
Suppress for HR environment
-12
11 mph · in
75°F
10:40p
Suppress for HR environment
-12
11 mph · in
75°F
11:40p
Suppress for HR environment
-12
11 mph · in
75°F
12:40a
Suppress for HR environment
-12
11 mph · in
75°F
1:40a
Suppress for HR environment
⚪ Neutral · Combined 0.95

72°F, wind 4 mph WSW (cross) — modifier: +0 — mild park boost, weather flat.

Lucas Giolito
Lucas Giolito RHP
1.66 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP +0.38 ·
8 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Nathaniel Lowe Nathaniel Lowe 60 🔵 C+ +600 🌧️ COOL 35 0.249 89.6 7.3% 37.5% vs RHP 398 20.6% 12.5% 18.0% 21
2 Jj Bleday Jj Bleday 58 🟠 C +475 🌧️ COOL 38 0.294 90.3 7.2% 36.4% vs RHP 386 0.0% 0.0% 28.4% 38
3 Spencer Steer Spencer Steer 49 ⚪ D +550 · 86 0.188 89.7 7.2% 11.1% vs RHP 393 9.7% 8.3% 17.6% 28
4 Sal Stewart Sal Stewart 49 ⚪ D +500 🌧️ COOL 87 0.200 90.7 7.6% 20.0% vs RHP 393 8.0% 0.0% 14.7% 33
5 Tyler Stephenson Tyler Stephenson 43 ⚪ D +700 · 118 0.149 90.6 6.7% 16.1% vs RHP 381 7.4% 10.0% 10.4% 28
6 Matt Mclain Matt Mclain 41 ⚪ D +750 🌤️ WARM 132 0.170 88.5 6.0% 11.6% vs RHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 18.8% 19
7 Blake Dunn Blake Dunn 36 ⚪ D +900 ❄ COLD 167 0.133 88.3 4.0% 15.4% vs RHP 381 5.6% 9.1% 9.2% 42
8 Eugenio Suarez Eugenio Suarez 33 ⚪ D +475 🌤️ WARM 177 0.119 86.5 5.5% 14.3% vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 25
Chase Burns
Chase Burns RHP
1.21 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP +0.24 ·
5 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Gavin Sheets Gavin Sheets 53 🟠 C +480 · 56 0.231 89.5 9.8% 33.3% vs RHP 398 12.5% 9.1% 19.2% 23
2 Manny Machado Manny Machado 49 ⚪ D +550 🌤️ WARM 81 0.168 89.8 8.9% 26.7% vs RHP 393 16.9% 25.0% 16.3% 37
3 Jackson Merrill Jackson Merrill 42 ⚪ D +900 🌧️ COOL 129 0.128 89.8 10.0% 10.5% vs RHP 410 10.3% 16.7% 10.2% 33
4 Freddy Fermin Freddy Fermin 29 ⚪ D +850 🌤️ WARM 197 0.098 86.4 4.8% 5.0% vs RHP 382 6.7% 16.7% 9.8% 19
5 Bryce Johnson Bryce Johnson 14 ⚪ D +900 · 229 0.068 79.2 · 0.0% vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 6
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