CIN
@
9:40p
SD
Stadium Conditions
Petco Park
First pitch 9:40p
· roof open
Park 0.95×
Wind 4 mph cross
72°F
open
-12
11 mph · in
75°F
9:40p
Suppress for HR environment
-12
11 mph · in
75°F
10:40p
Suppress for HR environment
-12
11 mph · in
75°F
11:40p
Suppress for HR environment
-12
11 mph · in
75°F
12:40a
Suppress for HR environment
-12
11 mph · in
75°F
1:40a
Suppress for HR environment
⚪ Neutral · Combined 0.95
72°F, wind 4 mph WSW (cross) — modifier: +0 — mild park boost, weather flat.
8 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Nathaniel Lowe | 60 | 🔵 C+ | +600 | 🌧️ COOL | 35 | 0.249 | 89.6 | 7.3% | 37.5% vs RHP | 398 | 20.6% | 12.5% | 18.0% | 21 |
| 2 |
|
Jj Bleday | 58 | 🟠 C | +475 | 🌧️ COOL | 38 | 0.294 | 90.3 | 7.2% | 36.4% vs RHP | 386 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 28.4% | 38 |
| 3 |
|
Spencer Steer | 49 | ⚪ D | +550 | · | 86 | 0.188 | 89.7 | 7.2% | 11.1% vs RHP | 393 | 9.7% | 8.3% | 17.6% | 28 |
| 4 |
|
Sal Stewart | 49 | ⚪ D | +500 | 🌧️ COOL | 87 | 0.200 | 90.7 | 7.6% | 20.0% vs RHP | 393 | 8.0% | 0.0% | 14.7% | 33 |
| 5 |
|
Tyler Stephenson | 43 | ⚪ D | +700 | · | 118 | 0.149 | 90.6 | 6.7% | 16.1% vs RHP | 381 | 7.4% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 28 |
| 6 |
|
Matt Mclain | 41 | ⚪ D | +750 | 🌤️ WARM | 132 | 0.170 | 88.5 | 6.0% | 11.6% vs RHP | 398 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 18.8% | 19 |
| 7 |
|
Blake Dunn | 36 | ⚪ D | +900 | ❄ COLD | 167 | 0.133 | 88.3 | 4.0% | 15.4% vs RHP | 381 | 5.6% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 42 |
| 8 |
|
Eugenio Suarez | 33 | ⚪ D | +475 | 🌤️ WARM | 177 | 0.119 | 86.5 | 5.5% | 14.3% vs RHP | 394 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.9% | 25 |
5 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Gavin Sheets | 53 | 🟠 C | +480 | · | 56 | 0.231 | 89.5 | 9.8% | 33.3% vs RHP | 398 | 12.5% | 9.1% | 19.2% | 23 |
| 2 |
|
Manny Machado | 49 | ⚪ D | +550 | 🌤️ WARM | 81 | 0.168 | 89.8 | 8.9% | 26.7% vs RHP | 393 | 16.9% | 25.0% | 16.3% | 37 |
| 3 |
|
Jackson Merrill | 42 | ⚪ D | +900 | 🌧️ COOL | 129 | 0.128 | 89.8 | 10.0% | 10.5% vs RHP | 410 | 10.3% | 16.7% | 10.2% | 33 |
| 4 |
|
Freddy Fermin | 29 | ⚪ D | +850 | 🌤️ WARM | 197 | 0.098 | 86.4 | 4.8% | 5.0% vs RHP | 382 | 6.7% | 16.7% | 9.8% | 19 |
| 5 |
|
Bryce Johnson | 14 | ⚪ D | +900 | · | 229 | 0.068 | 79.2 | · | 0.0% vs RHP | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.6% | 6 |