⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 4 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 5 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 6 James Wood 4 HRs · 7 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 8 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 9 Julio Rodríguez 4 HRs · 10 Ketel Marte 4 HRs · 11 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 12 Michael Harris II 4 HRs 1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 4 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 5 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 6 James Wood 4 HRs · 7 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 8 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 9 Julio Rodríguez 4 HRs · 10 Ketel Marte 4 HRs · 11 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 12 Michael Harris II 4 HRs
CHC
@
TB
Tropicana Field · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
0.99×
Weather Mod
+0.0%
neutral
Combined
0.990
Wind
0 mph
dome
Colin Rea
Colin Rea RHP
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Junior Caminero Junior Caminero 67 🔵 C+ · 🌧️ COOL 14 0.271 92.4 12.0% 24.5% 392 22.2% 22.2% 21.9% 33
2 Jonathan Aranda Jonathan Aranda 61 🔵 C+ · 🌤️ WARM 22 0.173 93.0 11.5% 14.7% 398 22.2% 22.2% 16.5% 36
3 Brandon Lowe Brandon Lowe 53 🟠 C · ❄ COLD 59 0.221 91.1 11.5% 22.0% 400 11.1% 11.1% 25.8% 28
4 Yandy Diaz Yandy Diaz 53 🟠 C · 🌧️ COOL 62 0.182 93.0 9.2% 18.2% 379 28.6% 28.6% 12.5% 37
5 Christopher Morel Christopher Morel 49 ⚪ D · · 80 0.176 91.8 12.3% 14.5% 404 0.0% 0.0% 12.3% 0
6 Josh Lowe Josh Lowe 45 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 116 0.146 88.6 7.8% 12.9% 392 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 18
7 Taylor Walls Taylor Walls 29 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 211 0.099 87.0 5.7% 4.8% 388 0.0% 0.0% 5.3% 6
8 Jake Mangum Jake Mangum 19 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 237 0.072 87.3 5.2% 4.1% 405 0.0% 0.0% 3.9% 21
9 Chandler Simpson Chandler Simpson 15 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 242 0.051 84.3 0.0% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 40
Joe Boyle
Joe Boyle RHP
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Ian Happ Ian Happ 65 🔵 C+ · 🔥 HOT 18 0.178 90.0 10.3% 13.3% 393 45.5% 45.5% 16.1% 22
2 Seiya Suzuki Seiya Suzuki 57 🟠 C · · 40 0.233 91.3 13.0% 16.5% 398 0.0% 0.0% 17.3% 0
3 Dansby Swanson Dansby Swanson 57 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 45 0.173 90.5 10.9% 15.5% 403 18.2% 18.2% 10.0% 23
4 Matt Shaw Matt Shaw 55 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 55 0.168 84.9 8.4% 10.8% 387 30.0% 30.0% 11.7% 28
5 Michael Busch Michael Busch 54 🟠 C · ❄ COLD 56 0.261 92.2 13.2% 20.9% 397 0.0% 0.0% 16.4% 33
6 Pete Crow-Armstrong Pete Crow-Armstrong 52 🟠 C · ❄ COLD 66 0.234 89.5 11.5% 14.2% 395 9.1% 9.1% 12.9% 32
7 Carson Kelly Carson Kelly 48 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 88 0.179 88.8 9.9% 13.6% 386 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 21
8 Kyle Tucker Kyle Tucker 45 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 111 0.198 90.1 10.5% 11.8% 393 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 30
9 Nico Hoerner Nico Hoerner 24 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 230 0.097 86.7 4.8% 3.7% 379 0.0% 0.0% 3.7% 32
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.88

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.