BOS
@
7:10p
KC
Park Factor
0.91×
Weather Mod
-1.0%
cool air · steady wind in · roof open
Combined
0.817
Temp
64.0°F
Wind
9.2 mph
in
Roof
open
Sonny Gray
RHP
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bobby Witt Jr. | 65 | 🔵 C+ | · | 🌤️ WARM | 32 | 0.200 | 93.5 | 12.5% | 18.8% | 404 | 14.0% | 41.7% | 25.5% | 43 | |
| 2 |
|
Jac Caglianone | 63 | 🔵 C+ | · | 🌤️ WARM | 38 | 0.166 | 94.0 | 17.6% | 16.7% | 408 | 10.8% | 20.0% | 14.8% | 27 |
| 3 |
|
Salvador Perez | 44 | ⚪ D | · | · | 113 | 0.142 | 88.3 | 8.7% | 19.2% | 394 | 16.3% | 16.7% | 12.5% | 35 |
| 4 |
|
Isaac Collins | 42 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 125 | 0.122 | 89.5 | 10.1% | 12.5% | 377 | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 29 |
| 5 |
|
Vinnie Pasquantino | 42 | ⚪ D | · | · | 127 | 0.150 | 89.0 | 8.9% | 16.1% | 398 | 12.2% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 43 |
| 6 |
|
Carter Jensen | 40 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 143 | 0.177 | 90.5 | 10.0% | 23.1% | 387 | 14.3% | 0.0% | 11.8% | 23 |
| 7 |
|
Maikel Garcia | 30 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 203 | 0.144 | 90.6 | 5.2% | 4.2% | 398 | 7.3% | 0.0% | 7.7% | 49 |
| 8 |
|
Kyle Isbel | 27 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 212 | 0.129 | 87.1 | 4.4% | 20.0% | 390 | 7.7% | 0.0% | 8.1% | 26 |
| 9 |
|
Lane Thomas | 17 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 241 | 0.053 | 85.2 | 3.3% | 0.0% | 407 | 10.0% | 0.0% | 6.7% | 13 |
Seth Lugo
RHP
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Willson Contreras | 53 | 🟠 C | · | ❄ COLD | 68 | 0.201 | 90.9 | 16.0% | 23.5% | 411 | 19.0% | 15.4% | 16.0% | 25 |
| 2 |
|
Wilyer Abreu | 45 | ⚪ D | · | · | 107 | 0.169 | 90.1 | 11.0% | 15.4% | 391 | 14.3% | 15.4% | 7.8% | 37 |
| 3 |
|
Ceddanne Rafaela | 42 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 129 | 0.149 | 86.7 | 8.0% | 20.0% | 364 | 9.8% | 23.1% | 11.7% | 33 |
| 4 |
|
Jarren Duran | 30 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 205 | 0.122 | 89.8 | 8.5% | 23.5% | 397 | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 34 |
| 5 |
|
Roman Anthony | 29 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 207 | 0.092 | 92.3 | 9.2% | 5.9% | 391 | 2.9% | 0.0% | 5.8% | 1 |
| 6 |
|
Trevor Story | 27 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 213 | 0.100 | 88.9 | 3.6% | 17.6% | 412 | 7.7% | 10.0% | 6.3% | 19 |
| 7 |
|
Carlos Narváez | 24 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 220 | 0.111 | 91.2 | 7.9% | 11.8% | 386 | 8.3% | 0.0% | 5.3% | 14 |
| 8 |
|
Marcelo Mayer | 19 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 235 | 0.081 | 87.1 | 7.1% | 5.0% | 382 | 3.4% | 8.3% | 4.4% | 28 |
| 9 |
|
Caleb Durbin | 7 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 251 | 0.076 | 84.8 | 0.9% | 9.1% | 386 | 2.4% | 0.0% | 5.1% | 23 |