AZ
@
6:45p
STL
Stadium Conditions
Busch Stadium
First pitch 6:45p
· roof open
Park 0.83×
Wind 6 mph cross
64°F
open
-7
3 mph · in
80°F
6:45p
Suppress for HR environment
-7
3 mph · in
78°F
7:45p
Suppress for HR environment
-7
3 mph · cross
76°F
8:45p
Suppress for HR environment
-5
3 mph · cross
73°F
9:45p
Suppress for HR environment
-6
3 mph · cross
72°F
10:45p
Suppress for HR environment
⚪ Suppress · Combined 0.83
65°F, wind 5 mph S (cross) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.
AZ Bullpen Proxy
1.30 HR/9
· FIP-xFIP +0.00
·
7 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Jordan Walker | 62 | 🔵 C+ | +370 | 🌧️ COOL | 29 | 0.241 | 93.9 | 13.4% | 25.7% | 408 | 18.5% | 15.4% | 14.7% | 39 |
| 2 |
|
Alec Burleson | 57 | 🟠 C | +500 | 🌤️ WARM | 54 | 0.202 | 91.8 | 10.8% | 14.4% | 405 | 17.6% | 33.3% | 17.5% | 44 |
| 3 |
|
Ivan Herrera | 36 | ⚪ D | +575 | 🌤️ WARM | 169 | 0.169 | 89.8 | 7.0% | 16.7% | 406 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 15.1% | 34 |
| 4 |
|
Nathan Church | 36 | ⚪ D | +850 | · | 177 | 0.142 | 85.9 | 9.2% | 12.2% | 387 | 6.5% | 0.0% | 7.1% | 23 |
| 5 |
|
Jj Wetherholt | 35 | ⚪ D | +525 | 🌧️ COOL | 179 | 0.154 | 90.1 | 7.4% | 13.6% | 389 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 11.3% | 42 |
| 6 |
|
Pedro Pages | 29 | ⚪ D | +850 | 🌤️ WARM | 211 | 0.136 | 87.0 | 6.0% | 10.5% | 403 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.6% | 8 |
| 7 |
|
Masyn Winn | 23 | ⚪ D | +950 | 🌤️ WARM | 233 | 0.092 | 87.7 | 3.4% | 5.4% | 389 | 4.2% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 40 |
8 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Corbin Carroll | 61 | 🔵 C+ | +425 | · | 30 | 0.260 | 91.9 | 11.3% | 13.6% vs LHP | 406 | 17.2% | 15.4% | 16.4% | 38 |
| 2 |
|
Gabriel Moreno | 49 | ⚪ D | +750 | 🌧️ COOL | 88 | 0.206 | 90.1 | 9.7% | 20.0% vs LHP | 395 | 11.8% | 8.3% | 11.6% | 29 |
| 3 |
|
Ketel Marte ⚡ | 48 | ⚪ D | +320 | 🌤️ WARM | 90 | 0.187 | 91.4 | 10.2% | 29.4% vs LHP | 413 | 11.7% | 7.7% | 11.6% | 44 |
| 4 |
|
Jorge Barrosa ⚡ | 41 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 135 | 0.184 | 86.5 | 8.3% | 12.5% vs LHP | 376 | 2.9% | 0.0% | 19.2% | 8 |
| 5 |
|
Nolan Arenado ⚡ | 37 | ⚪ D | +575 | 🌧️ COOL | 165 | 0.155 | 85.3 | 7.6% | 20.0% vs LHP | 400 | 9.9% | 0.0% | 8.7% | 33 |
| 6 |
|
Ildemaro Vargas ⚡ | 36 | ⚪ D | +850 | · | 172 | 0.158 | 86.9 | 6.5% | 29.4% vs LHP | 399 | 7.3% | 0.0% | 9.8% | 24 |
| 7 |
|
Adrian Del Castillo | 34 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 191 | 0.117 | 89.3 | 8.1% | 0.0% vs LHP | 396 | 8.1% | 0.0% | 6.5% | 12 |
| 8 |
|
Geraldo Perdomo | 28 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 212 | 0.106 | 87.2 | 5.2% | 7.1% vs LHP | 379 | 4.8% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 31 |