ATL
@
5:40p
SD
Stadium Conditions
Petco Park
First pitch 5:40p
· roof open
Park 0.91×
Wind 4 mph in
65°F
open
-11
9 mph · in
75°F
5:40p
Suppress for HR environment
-11
9 mph · in
73°F
6:40p
Suppress for HR environment
-12
9 mph · in
70°F
7:40p
Suppress for HR environment
-11
8 mph · in
69°F
8:40p
Suppress for HR environment
-11
8 mph · in
68°F
9:40p
Suppress for HR environment
⚪ Soft suppress · Combined 0.91
65°F, wind 4 mph WNW (in) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.
SD Bullpen Proxy
1.08 HR/9
· FIP-xFIP +0.00
·
7 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Drake Baldwin | 67 | 🔵 C+ | +390 | ❄ COLD | 20 | 0.223 | 92.2 | 17.9% | 31.1% | 407 | 21.1% | 0.0% | 25.2% | 11 |
| 2 |
|
Matt Olson | 66 | 🔵 C+ | +350 | ❄ COLD | 23 | 0.276 | 93.1 | 13.7% | 21.4% | 409 | 21.8% | 7.1% | 14.8% | 29 |
| 3 |
|
Austin Riley | 42 | ⚪ D | +400 | 🌤️ WARM | 130 | 0.159 | 91.1 | 9.9% | 12.0% | 409 | 7.8% | 0.0% | 8.5% | 23 |
| 4 |
|
Ozzie Albies | 36 | ⚪ D | +475 | 🌤️ WARM | 173 | 0.163 | 87.3 | 4.1% | 11.2% | 383 | 12.8% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 39 |
| 5 |
|
Dominic Smith | 36 | ⚪ D | +750 | ❄ COLD | 176 | 0.145 | 88.2 | 7.4% | 10.5% | 390 | 8.2% | 0.0% | 7.6% | 22 |
| 6 |
|
Mike Yastrzemski | 33 | ⚪ D | +750 | 🌧️ COOL | 193 | 0.147 | 90.6 | 3.6% | 12.0% | 374 | 8.2% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 15 |
| 7 |
|
Mauricio Dubon | 30 | ⚪ D | +700 | 🌧️ COOL | 205 | 0.139 | 86.4 | 5.7% | 9.0% | 393 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.1% | 37 |
7 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Gavin Sheets | 50 | 🟠 C | · | 🌧️ COOL | 81 | 0.226 | 89.1 | 7.3% | 21.3% | 394 | 13.2% | 18.2% | 20.5% | 27 |
| 2 |
|
Manny Machado | 50 | 🟠 C | +390 | 🌤️ WARM | 82 | 0.195 | 90.0 | 7.7% | 21.4% vs LHP | 399 | 18.1% | 25.0% | 19.8% | 34 |
| 3 |
|
Ty France | 48 | ⚪ D | +625 | 🌧️ COOL | 93 | 0.201 | 91.0 | 8.4% | 14.3% vs LHP | 393 | 13.0% | 11.1% | 18.6% | 19 |
| 4 |
|
Jackson Merrill | 39 | ⚪ D | +575 | 🌤️ WARM | 154 | 0.141 | 90.1 | 7.9% | 15.4% vs LHP | 407 | 11.3% | 16.7% | 8.7% | 37 |
| 5 |
|
Miguel Andujar | 31 | ⚪ D | +700 | ❄ COLD | 199 | 0.156 | 88.0 | 5.3% | 12.5% vs LHP | 394 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.5% | 2 |
| 6 |
|
Xander Bogaerts | 30 | ⚪ D | +700 | ❄ COLD | 207 | 0.111 | 88.0 | 6.3% | 7.1% vs LHP | 395 | 10.0% | 0.0% | 6.5% | 22 |
| 7 |
|
Freddy Fermin ⚡ | 26 | ⚪ D | +950 | 🌤️ WARM | 224 | 0.111 | 86.3 | 4.4% | 40.0% vs LHP | 382 | 5.6% | 0.0% | 11.8% | 4 |