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Study Day
📅 2026-08-22
1
Top-5 Hits
1
Top-15 Hits
32
HRs in Slate
86%
Coverage
251
Scored
What Happened
A high-volume day with 32 HRs across scored matchups.
Pitcher vulnerability was the dominant signal — multiple arms with elevated FIP and HR/FB rates.
Why It Worked
Pitcher Vulnerability
6 of the top 15 faced pitchers with FIP ≥ 4.50
Warm Weather
13 top-15 batters played in 75°F+ conditions
HR-Friendly Parks
8 top-15 matchups in parks with factor ≥ 1.05
Hot Bats
6 top-15 batters trending HOT or WARM
Stacking Opportunities
3 same-pitcher stacks for parlay potential
🔥 High Conviction Day
0 matchups met the Golden criteria (pitcher FIP > 5.0 AND HR/FB > 20%).
Stack Alerts:
Jared Jones: {'batter': 'Max Muncy', 'rank': 4, 'score': 69.0}, {'batter': 'Shohei Ohtani', 'rank': 5, 'score': 69.0}
Andrew Painter: {'batter': 'Jordan Walker', 'rank': 7, 'score': 68.0}, {'batter': 'Alec Burleson', 'rank': 11, 'score': 63.0}
Ryan Johnson: {'batter': 'Joc Pederson', 'rank': 8, 'score': 65.0}, {'batter': 'Corey Seager', 'rank': 12, 'score': 63.0}
Top 15 Matchups
| # | Result | Batter | Pitcher | HR/FB | Score | FIP | Park | Form | Barrel | HR Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | — | Yordan Alvarez | Jacob Lopez | 19.2% | 72 | 5.2 | 1.16 | 🌧️ | 10.0% | |
| 2 | — | Max Muncy | Hunter Brown | 37.1% | 71 | 4.7 | 1.16 | · | 9.7% | |
| 3 | ✅ | Kyle Schwarber | Quinn Mathews | 33.1% | 70 | 4.4 | 1.10 | 🌧️ | 10.7% | 108.4 mph · 367ft · 26.0° |
| 4 | — | Max Muncy | Jared Jones | 36.4% | 69 | 4.2 | 1.08 | · | 10.9% | |
| 5 | — | Shohei Ohtani | Jared Jones | 36.1% | 69 | 4.2 | 1.08 | · | 11.8% | |
| 6 | — | Munetaka Murakami | Christian Scott | 35.6% | 69 | 3.4 | 1.02 | · | 12.2% | |
| 7 | — | Jordan Walker | Andrew Painter | 32.8% | 68 | 5.5 | 1.10 | 🌧️ | 10.4% | |
| 8 | — | Joc Pederson | Ryan Johnson | 25.2% | 65 | 6.7 | 1.03 | 🌤️ | 11.0% | |
| 9 | — | Pete Crow-Armstrong | SEA Bullpen Proxy | 26.7% | 68 | 3.9 | 1.00 | · | 12.7% | |
| 10 | — | Ben Rice | Dylan Cease | 32.5% | 63 | 2.4 | 1.05 | 🌤️ | 8.9% | |
| 11 | — | Alec Burleson | Andrew Painter | 25.6% | 63 | 5.5 | 1.10 | 🌤️ | 9.8% | |
| 12 | — | Corey Seager | Ryan Johnson | 23.5% | 63 | 6.7 | 1.03 | · | 12.9% | |
| 13 | — | Matt Olson | Logan Henderson | 31.4% | 62 | 3.5 | 0.91 | 🌤️ | 11.5% | |
| 14 | — | Pete Alonso | Shane McClanahan | 22.7% | 62 | 3.5 | 1.01 | 🌤️ | 10.9% | |
| 15 | — | Oneil Cruz | Tarik Skubal | 33.5% | 61 | 2.8 | 1.08 | 🌤️ | 11.0% |
All 31 HRs in Slate
Show all ranked picks that hit
| # | Batter | HR/FB | EV | Dist | LA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Kyle Schwarber | 33.1% | 108.4 | 367ft | 26.0° |
| 20 | Mickey Moniak | 19.7% | 105.2 | 407ft | 42.0° |
| 26 | Bryce Harper | 14.0% | 102.4 | 390ft | 26.0° |
| 41 | Heriberto Hernández | 23.3% | 109.2 | 393ft | 22.0° |
| 45 | Luis García Jr. | 19.7% | 108.6 | 387ft | 22.0° |
| 46 | Jake Bauers | 19.2% | 106.5 | 413ft | 27.0° |
| 69 | Nolan Arenado | 18.9% | 98.7 | 368ft | 34.0° |
| 70 | Jackson Merrill | 17.9% | 105.5 | 411ft | 33.0° |
| 71 | Randy Arozarena | 17.5% | 104.4 | 404ft | 29.0° |
| 73 | Jo Adell | 15.1% | 108.6 | 450ft | 27.0° |
| 87 | Carson Benge | 11.8% | 105.5 | 403ft | 31.0° |
| 96 | Elly De La Cruz | 11.7% | 115.2 | 427ft | 36.0° |
| 100 | Donovan Walton | 10.9% | 103.4 | 422ft | 28.0° |
| 101 | JJ Wetherholt | 9.8% | 103.8 | 417ft | 29.0° |
| 107 | Jj Bleday | 12.3% | 102.8 | 370ft | 24.0° |
| 114 | Luis Robert Jr. | 16.2% | 109.0 | 417ft | 25.0° |
| 118 | Salvador Perez | 11.0% | 106.3 | 424ft | 27.0° |
| 122 | Daulton Varsho | 8.1% | 97.6 | 358ft | 30.0° |
| 128 | Hao-Yu Lee | 10.9% | 110.0 | 446ft | 27.0° |
| 132 | Bo Bichette | 9.2% | 100.3 | 378ft | 40.0° |
| 140 | Willy Adames | 8.8% | 109.4 | 403ft | 27.0° |
| 146 | Liam Hicks | 9.9% | 108.9 | 388ft | 19.0° |
| 161 | Tim Tawa | 8.6% | 100.4 | 391ft | 24.0° |
| 163 | Michael Busch | 8.2% | 100.4 | 408ft | 29.0° |
| 166 | Tristan Peters | 9.7% | 98.1 | 366ft | 26.0° |
| 167 | Matt Mclain | 9.5% | 100.9 | 395ft | 31.0° |
| 189 | Alex Bregman | 14.2% | 104.7 | 415ft | 22.0° |
| 192 | Braden Montgomery | 9.0% | 109.0 | 419ft | 30.0° |
| 194 | Brooks Lee | 8.5% | 97.5 | 366ft | 36.0° |
| 235 | Jakob Marsee | 6.3% | 100.3 | 379ft | 36.0° |
| 246 | Luke Keaschall | 6.7% | 101.6 | 396ft | 28.0° |