← Case Studies
Study Day
📅 2026-07-11
1
Top-5 Hits
3
Top-15 Hits
31
HRs in Slate
91%
Coverage
267
Scored
What Happened
A high-volume day with 31 HRs across scored matchups.
Pitcher vulnerability was the dominant signal — multiple arms with elevated FIP and HR/FB rates.
Why It Worked
Pitcher Vulnerability
10 of the top 15 faced pitchers with FIP ≥ 4.50
Warm Weather
11 top-15 batters played in 75°F+ conditions
HR-Friendly Parks
8 top-15 matchups in parks with factor ≥ 1.05
Hot Bats
5 top-15 batters trending HOT or WARM
Stacking Opportunities
2 same-pitcher stacks for parlay potential
🔥 High Conviction Day
0 matchups met the Golden criteria (pitcher FIP > 5.0 AND HR/FB > 20%).
Stack Alerts:
Brandon Pfaadt: {'batter': 'Shohei Ohtani', 'rank': 2, 'score': 74.0}, {'batter': 'Max Muncy', 'rank': 7, 'score': 66.0}, {'batter': 'Freddie Freeman', 'rank': 14, 'score': 62.0}
Tanner Bibee: {'batter': 'Kyle Stowers', 'rank': 10, 'score': 64.0}, {'batter': 'Heriberto Hernández', 'rank': 15, 'score': 61.0}
Top 15 Matchups
| # | Result | Batter | Pitcher | HR/FB | Score | FIP | Park | Form | Barrel | HR Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | — | Ben Rice | PJ Poulin | 37.6% | 74 | 4.9 | 1.06 | 🌤️ | 12.5% | |
| 2 | — | Shohei Ohtani | Brandon Pfaadt | 44.3% | 74 | 5.0 | 1.20 | · | 13.2% | |
| 3 | — | Dominic Canzone | Griffin Jax | 38.2% | 69 | 4.5 | 1.04 | · | 13.1% | |
| 4 | — | Junior Caminero | Logan Gilbert | 34.6% | 69 | 3.5 | 1.04 | · | 11.5% | |
| 5 | ✅ | James Wood | Cam Schlittler | 31.3% | 67 | 2.6 | 1.06 | · | 13.2% | 100.4 mph · 388ft · 37.0° |
| 6 | ✅ | Yordan Alvarez | Kumar Rocker | 29.0% | 66 | 4.0 | 0.93 | 🌤️ | 11.8% | 112.8 mph · 425ft · 28.0° |
| 7 | — | Max Muncy | Brandon Pfaadt | 24.8% | 66 | 5.0 | 1.20 | 🌧️ | 12.2% | |
| 8 | — | Kody Clemens | Ryan Johnson | 30.5% | 65 | 5.7 | 1.00 | · | 10.5% | |
| 9 | — | Juan Soto | BOS Bullpen Proxy | 27.3% | 68 | 4.0 | 0.98 | 🌧️ | 15.0% | |
| 10 | — | Kyle Stowers | Tanner Bibee | 33.7% | 64 | 5.0 | 1.08 | 🌤️ | 11.4% | |
| 11 | — | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Nick Lodolo | 29.1% | 64 | 5.4 | 1.04 | 🌧️ | 9.6% | |
| 12 | — | Matt Olson | Matthew Liberatore | 27.4% | 62 | 5.0 | 0.83 | 🌤️ | 11.7% | |
| 13 | ✅ | Pete Alonso | Noah Cameron | 20.7% | 62 | 3.9 | 1.14 | 🌧️ | 10.7% | 103.9 mph · 420ft · 25.0° |
| 14 | — | Freddie Freeman | Brandon Pfaadt | 19.9% | 62 | 5.0 | 1.20 | 🌧️ | 10.8% | |
| 15 | — | Heriberto Hernández | Tanner Bibee | 28.2% | 61 | 5.0 | 1.08 | 🌤️ | 10.7% |
All 31 HRs in Slate
Show all ranked picks that hit
| # | Batter | HR/FB | EV | Dist | LA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | James Wood | 31.3% | 100.4 | 388ft | 37.0° |
| 6 | Yordan Alvarez | 29.0% | 112.8 | 425ft | 28.0° |
| 13 | Pete Alonso | 20.7% | 103.9 | 420ft | 25.0° |
| 29 | JJ Bleday | 21.7% | 102.4 | 379ft | 35.0° |
| 32 | Esmerlyn Valdez | 29.4% | 103.7 | 380ft | 32.0° |
| 35 | Jake Bauers | 26.9% | 111.8 | 375ft | 22.0° |
| 37 | Coby Mayo | 27.7% | 110.4 | 440ft | 29.0° |
| 43 | Paul Goldschmidt | 16.9% | 103.2 | 395ft | 28.0° |
| 51 | Esmerlyn Valdez | 27.4% | 103.7 | 380ft | 32.0° |
| 55 | Gunnar Henderson | 17.7% | 102.5 | 417ft | 26.0° |
| 58 | Jake Bauers | 26.8% | 111.8 | 375ft | 22.0° |
| 61 | Nathaniel Lowe | 16.7% | 105.4 | 381ft | 26.0° |
| 62 | Royce Lewis | 14.1% | 107.7 | 419ft | 32.0° |
| 64 | Curtis Mead | 18.9% | 100.5 | 388ft | 33.0° |
| 77 | Trent Grisham | 11.6% | 106.3 | 398ft | 29.0° |
| 78 | Casey Schmitt | 10.9% | 104.9 | 415ft | 24.0° |
| 79 | Nolan Arenado | 22.2% | 98.9 | 356ft | 28.0° |
| 84 | Eugenio Suárez | 17.4% | 101.7 | 370ft | 34.0° |
| 133 | Carson Kelly | 9.6% | 103.0 | 410ft | 31.0° |
| 140 | Ty France | 14.1% | 102.9 | 377ft | 31.0° |
| 146 | Andruw Monasterio | 5.5% | 98.7 | 378ft | 29.0° |
| 147 | Kyle Karros | 18.9% | 105.9 | 435ft | 27.0° |
| 152 | Alex Bregman | 8.5% | 93.4 | 354ft | 33.0° |
| 163 | Taylor Ward | 8.3% | 96.6 | 354ft | 35.0° |
| 173 | James McCann | 9.4% | 101.5 | 399ft | 28.0° |
| 174 | Ezequiel Duran | 9.3% | 98.0 | 372ft | 24.0° |
| 195 | Mauricio Dubón | 7.7% | 105.2 | 401ft | 25.0° |
| 208 | Lars Nootbaar | 6.1% | 108.8 | 435ft | 25.0° |
| 215 | Masataka Yoshida | 7.8% | 104.2 | 360ft | 25.0° |
| 244 | Christian Vázquez | 6.4% | 103.4 | 392ft | 20.0° |
| 263 | Sal Frelick | 5.8% | 98.0 | 380ft | 25.0° |