← Case Studies
Study Day
📅 2026-07-08
0
Top-5 Hits
3
Top-15 Hits
24
HRs in Slate
71%
Coverage
247
Scored
What Happened
Pitcher vulnerability was the dominant signal — multiple arms with elevated FIP and HR/FB rates.
Why It Worked
Pitcher Vulnerability
11 of the top 15 faced pitchers with FIP ≥ 4.50
Warm Weather
12 top-15 batters played in 75°F+ conditions
HR-Friendly Parks
10 top-15 matchups in parks with factor ≥ 1.05
Hot Bats
6 top-15 batters trending HOT or WARM
Stacking Opportunities
3 same-pitcher stacks for parlay potential
🔥 High Conviction Day
0 matchups met the Golden criteria (pitcher FIP > 5.0 AND HR/FB > 20%).
Stack Alerts:
Roki Sasaki: {'batter': 'Hunter Goodman', 'rank': 1, 'score': 81.0}, {'batter': 'Jake Mccarthy', 'rank': 15, 'score': 62.0}
COL Bullpen Proxy: {'batter': 'Shohei Ohtani', 'rank': 2, 'score': 76.0}, {'batter': 'Max Muncy', 'rank': 10, 'score': 68.0}
Dean Kremer: {'batter': 'Pete Crow-Armstrong', 'rank': 12, 'score': 63.0}, {'batter': 'Ian Happ', 'rank': 13, 'score': 63.0}, {'batter': 'Michael Conforto', 'rank': 14, 'score': 62.0}
Top 15 Matchups
| # | Result | Batter | Pitcher | HR/FB | Score | FIP | Park | Form | Barrel | HR Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | — | Hunter Goodman | Roki Sasaki | 46.7% | 81 | 5.8 | 1.21 | 🌤️ | 14.6% | |
| 2 | — | Shohei Ohtani | COL Bullpen Proxy | 32.3% | 76 | 4.8 | 1.21 | · | 16.5% | |
| 3 | — | Junior Caminero | Gerrit Cole | 35.3% | 72 | 4.6 | 1.04 | 🌤️ | 11.5% | |
| 4 | — | Yordan Alvarez | Foster Griffin | 32.3% | 71 | 4.2 | 1.06 | 🌤️ | 13.7% | |
| 5 | — | James Wood | Spencer Arrighetti | 35.5% | 70 | 4.7 | 1.06 | 🌧️ | 13.0% | |
| 6 | — | Juan Soto | Steven Cruz | 48.5% | 69 | 5.9 | 1.01 | 🌧️ | 12.9% | |
| 7 | ✅ | Kyle Schwarber | Chase Burns | 38.0% | 69 | 3.3 | 1.01 | 🌤️ | 13.5% | 105.6 mph · 387ft · 25.0° |
| 8 | — | Ben Rice | Shane McClanahan | 36.1% | 69 | 3.3 | 1.04 | · | 11.8% | |
| 9 | — | Dominic Canzone | Tyler Phillips | 33.6% | 67 | 4.6 | 1.07 | · | 11.7% | |
| 10 | — | Max Muncy | COL Bullpen Proxy | 19.2% | 68 | 4.8 | 1.21 | 🌧️ | 13.9% | |
| 11 | — | Kody Clemens | Slade Cecconi | 27.0% | 64 | 4.4 | 1.00 | 🌤️ | 10.3% | |
| 12 | ✅ | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Dean Kremer | 25.7% | 63 | 5.2 | 1.08 | ❄ | 11.3% | 106.7 mph · 419ft · 35.0° |
| 13 | — | Ian Happ | Dean Kremer | 20.8% | 63 | 5.2 | 1.08 | 🌧️ | 12.5% | |
| 14 | ✅ | Michael Conforto | Dean Kremer | 33.6% | 62 | 5.2 | 1.08 | 🌧️ | 12.6% | 94.5 mph · 368ft · 32.0° |
| 15 | — | Jake Mccarthy | Roki Sasaki | 31.4% | 62 | 5.8 | 1.21 | 🌤️ | 8.7% |
All 24 HRs in Slate
Show all ranked picks that hit
| # | Batter | HR/FB | EV | Dist | LA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Kyle Schwarber | 38.0% | 105.6 | 387ft | 25.0° |
| 12 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | 25.7% | 106.7 | 419ft | 35.0° |
| 14 | Michael Conforto | 33.6% | 94.5 | 368ft | 32.0° |
| 18 | Pete Alonso | 17.0% | 106.2 | 411ft | 24.0° |
| 21 | Kyle Karros | 26.5% | 107.9 | 417ft | 20.0° |
| 27 | Seiya Suzuki | 27.3% | 101.1 | 401ft | 31.0° |
| 30 | CJ Abrams | 24.3% | 104.1 | 415ft | 28.0° |
| 38 | Kyle Stowers | 25.9% | 105.4 | 416ft | 26.0° |
| 55 | Spencer Torkelson | 18.0% | 99.0 | 363ft | 29.0° |
| 62 | Mike Trout | 16.1% | 110.6 | 438ft | 23.0° |
| 69 | Sal Stewart | 18.9% | 100.3 | 358ft | 32.0° |
| 78 | Elly De La Cruz | 13.0% | 104.1 | 387ft | 21.0° |
| 80 | Rhys Hoskins | 18.6% | 105.7 | 383ft | 27.0° |
| 87 | Edouard Julien | 10.8% | 106.2 | 423ft | 27.0° |
| 92 | JJ Bleday | 16.2% | 103.7 | 384ft | 39.0° |
| 103 | Kazuma Okamoto | 20.4% | 99.1 | 328ft | 34.0° |
| 128 | Carson Kelly | 8.9% | 106.6 | 404ft | 31.0° |
| 135 | Noelvi Marte | 17.1% | 94.7 | 371ft | 31.0° |
| 156 | Alec Burleson | 7.2% | 109.4 | 443ft | 35.0° |
| 172 | Jo Adell | 8.6% | 110.3 | 433ft | 21.0° |
| 192 | Joey Bart | 10.7% | 106.3 | 422ft | 26.0° |
| 198 | Brayan Rocchio | 7.6% | 104.9 | 401ft | 30.0° |
| 217 | George Springer | 8.0% | 104.3 | 415ft | 23.0° |
| 234 | José Fermín | 6.2% | 100.6 | 404ft | 25.0° |