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Study Day
📅 2026-07-05
0
Top-5 Hits
2
Top-15 Hits
31
HRs in Slate
94%
Coverage
242
Scored
What Happened
A high-volume day with 31 HRs across scored matchups.
Pitcher vulnerability was the dominant signal — multiple arms with elevated FIP and HR/FB rates.
Why It Worked
Pitcher Vulnerability
11 of the top 15 faced pitchers with FIP ≥ 4.50
Warm Weather
12 top-15 batters played in 75°F+ conditions
HR-Friendly Parks
14 top-15 matchups in parks with factor ≥ 1.05
Hot Bats
7 top-15 batters trending HOT or WARM
Stacking Opportunities
4 same-pitcher stacks for parlay potential
🔥 High Conviction Day
0 matchups met the Golden criteria (pitcher FIP > 5.0 AND HR/FB > 20%).
Stack Alerts:
Ryan Weathers: {'batter': 'Byron Buxton', 'rank': 1, 'score': 76.0}, {'batter': 'Kody Clemens', 'rank': 7, 'score': 72.0}
Tyler Mahle: {'batter': 'Hunter Goodman', 'rank': 2, 'score': 75.0}, {'batter': 'Mickey Moniak', 'rank': 10, 'score': 69.0}
Eury Pérez: {'batter': 'Nick Kurtz', 'rank': 3, 'score': 75.0}, {'batter': 'Max Muncy', 'rank': 12, 'score': 68.0}
JP Sears: {'batter': 'Shohei Ohtani', 'rank': 6, 'score': 73.0}, {'batter': 'Freddie Freeman', 'rank': 11, 'score': 68.0}
Top 15 Matchups
| # | Result | Batter | Pitcher | HR/FB | Score | FIP | Park | Form | Barrel | HR Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | — | Byron Buxton | Ryan Weathers | 25.7% | 76 | 4.2 | 1.25 | · | 14.8% | |
| 2 | — | Hunter Goodman | Tyler Mahle | 43.1% | 75 | 4.9 | 1.11 | 🌤️ | 11.9% | |
| 3 | — | Nick Kurtz | Eury Pérez | 39.5% | 75 | 4.6 | 1.24 | 🌤️ | 16.1% | |
| 4 | — | Yordan Alvarez | Mason Englert | 31.1% | 75 | 4.5 | 1.07 | 🌤️ | 14.1% | |
| 5 | — | Ben Rice | Joe Ryan | 41.9% | 73 | 3.1 | 1.25 | ❄ | 12.8% | |
| 6 | — | Shohei Ohtani | JP Sears | 24.7% | 73 | 7.9 | 1.21 | 🌧️ | 14.9% | |
| 7 | — | Kody Clemens | Ryan Weathers | 36.2% | 72 | 4.2 | 1.25 | 🌤️ | 12.4% | |
| 8 | — | Kyle Schwarber | Luinder Avila | 33.4% | 71 | 4.8 | 1.02 | 🌧️ | 11.5% | |
| 9 | — | Junior Caminero | Peter Lambert | 36.4% | 70 | 4.5 | 1.07 | 🌤️ | 9.6% | |
| 10 | — | Mickey Moniak | Tyler Mahle | 33.0% | 69 | 4.9 | 1.11 | · | 10.6% | |
| 11 | — | Freddie Freeman | JP Sears | 25.9% | 68 | 7.9 | 1.21 | · | 12.7% | |
| 12 | — | Max Muncy | Eury Pérez | 20.2% | 68 | 4.6 | 1.24 | ❄ | 13.8% | |
| 13 | — | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Matthew Liberatore | 36.6% | 66 | 5.0 | 1.07 | 🌧️ | 10.6% | |
| 14 | ✅ | Manny Machado | Emmet Sheehan | 33.6% | 66 | 4.6 | 1.21 | 🌤️ | 10.6% | 102.0 mph · 407ft · 25.0° |
| 15 | ✅ | Rafael Devers | Tanner Gordon | 30.7% | 65 | 4.2 | 1.11 | 🌤️ | 12.1% | 110.3 mph · 463ft · 35.0° |
All 31 HRs in Slate
Show all ranked picks that hit
| # | Batter | HR/FB | EV | Dist | LA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Manny Machado | 33.6% | 102.0 | 407ft | 25.0° |
| 15 | Rafael Devers | 30.7% | 110.3 | 463ft | 35.0° |
| 19 | Willson Contreras | 31.2% | 112.2 | 446ft | 29.0° |
| 29 | Jordan Walker | 17.9% | 109.2 | 409ft | 26.0° |
| 32 | Colson Montgomery | 23.7% | 109.7 | 390ft | 20.0° |
| 35 | Christian Walker | 17.8% | 99.1 | 351ft | 28.0° |
| 42 | Casey Schmitt | 12.8% | 96.6 | 395ft | 29.0° |
| 47 | Jonah Heim | 19.2% | 104.3 | 371ft | 25.0° |
| 51 | Jake Bauers | 16.6% | 102.2 | 400ft | 25.0° |
| 74 | Kyle Karros | 21.8% | 105.8 | 457ft | 35.0° |
| 77 | Spencer Steer | 13.4% | 100.7 | 374ft | 27.0° |
| 78 | Brandon Lowe | 16.9% | 107.6 | 396ft | 24.0° |
| 81 | Zach Neto | 16.6% | 103.9 | 396ft | 31.0° |
| 87 | Drake Baldwin | 14.2% | 101.3 | 383ft | 30.0° |
| 94 | Riley Greene | 17.4% | 111.2 | 431ft | 36.0° |
| 97 | Heriberto Hernández | 18.9% | 104.5 | 422ft | 34.0° |
| 105 | Jarren Duran | 12.2% | 103.6 | 422ft | 29.0° |
| 108 | Isaac Paredes | 10.9% | 101.9 | 401ft | 34.0° |
| 126 | Otto Lopez | 12.0% | 105.7 | 420ft | 30.0° |
| 128 | Bryan Reynolds | 12.4% | 100.9 | 399ft | 30.0° |
| 150 | Jake Burger | 11.8% | 106.6 | 447ft | 29.0° |
| 160 | Tyrone Taylor | 13.8% | 103.3 | 417ft | 28.0° |
| 163 | Kyle Teel | 9.5% | 104.6 | 378ft | 27.0° |
| 168 | Dylan Crews | 6.9% | 106.7 | 400ft | 27.0° |
| 172 | Drew Gilbert | 9.5% | 96.3 | 410ft | 28.0° |
| 183 | Tristan Peters | 8.9% | 103.3 | 376ft | 35.0° |
| 186 | Gabriel Arias | 7.4% | 108.6 | 446ft | 23.0° |
| 209 | Chase DeLauter | 7.2% | 107.5 | 425ft | 31.0° |
| 212 | Leo Jiménez | 6.5% | 102.2 | 405ft | 35.0° |
| 221 | Mitch Garver | 9.3% | 102.0 | 377ft | 24.0° |
| 222 | Ezequiel Duran | 7.8% | 104.2 | 423ft | 31.0° |