10
HRs allowed
11.8%
HR rate (pool)
18.2%
Overall HR/FB
4.38
FIP
4.17
xFIP
+0.22
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
80
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 80th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
15.3%
Hard-Hit% allowed
67.5%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 99.4 EV · 381 ft
max EV allowed 112.8
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR
15D · 4 HR ↑
30D · 5 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Stephen Kolek.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
28.3%
81.5
26.0°
1
-0.0
Sinker Hard
21.7%
85.3
7.1°
1
+1.3
Slider Breaking
16.4%
84.0
14.3°
2
-1.0
Cutter Hard
12.3%
82.4
10.8°
3
-1.1
Changeup Offspeed
11.9%
82.0
1.4°
0
-0.7
Sweeper Breaking
9.3%
88.7
9.1°
1
+2.8
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups85
HRs allowed (pool)10
Pool HR rate11.8%
Pool HR/game day1.0
Top-15 matchups5
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB18.2% 80
HR/9—
FIP4.38 64
xFIP4.17
FIP − xFIP+0.22 61
Barrel% allowed15.3%
Hard-Hit% allowed67.5%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-10-17
Fastball
Hard · 28.3% usage
-0.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.5 mph
Avg launch angle26.0°
HRs allowed1
Pitches237
Sinker
Hard · 21.7% usage
+1.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.3 mph
Avg launch angle7.1°
HRs allowed1
Pitches182
Slider
Breaking · 16.4% usage
-1.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.0 mph
Avg launch angle14.3°
HRs allowed2
Pitches137
Cutter
Hard · 12.3% usage
-1.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.4 mph
Avg launch angle10.8°
HRs allowed3
Pitches103
Changeup
Offspeed · 11.9% usage
-0.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.0 mph
Avg launch angle1.4°
HRs allowed0
Pitches100
Sweeper
Breaking · 9.3% usage
+2.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against88.7 mph
Avg launch angle9.1°
HRs allowed1
Pitches78
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Stephen Kolek.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
10 allowed · scored pool
avg 99.4 EV · 381 ft
5 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 10 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-02
8
1
112.5
2026-06-21
8
3
109.7
2026-06-14
6
0
108.1
2026-06-09
9
0
112.5
2026-06-03
9
1
107.6
2026-05-29
9
3
108.8
2026-05-23
9
0
108.7
2026-05-17
9
0
112.8
2026-05-12
9
1
100.9
2026-05-05
9
1
107.6
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Stephen Kolek isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Stephen Kolek isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
49
5
10%
9
3
33%
9
1
11%
9
1
11%
9
0
0%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Stephen Kolek
How many home runs has Stephen Kolek allowed this season?
Stephen Kolek has allowed 10 home runs across 10 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Stephen Kolek?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Stephen Kolek include Alec Burleson (1), Blake Dunn (1), Brandon Nimmo (1) and 15 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.