10
HRs allowed
11.8%
HR rate (pool)
18.2%
Overall HR/FB
4.38
FIP
4.17
xFIP
+0.22
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
84
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 84th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
67.5%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 99.4 EV · 381 ft
max EV allowed 112.8
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR
15D · 4 HR ↑
30D · 5 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Stephen Kolek.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
28.4%
81.5
26.0°
1
-0.1
Sinker Hard
21.7%
85.3
7.1°
1
+1.2
Slider Breaking
16.2%
84.0
14.3°
2
-0.9
Cutter Hard
12.2%
82.4
10.8°
3
-1.1
Changeup Offspeed
12.1%
82.0
1.4°
0
-0.7
Sweeper Breaking
9.3%
88.7
9.1°
1
+2.8
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups85
HRs allowed (pool)10
Pool HR rate11.8%
Pool HR/game day1.0
Top-15 matchups5
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB18.2% 84
HR/9—
FIP4.38 63
xFIP4.17
FIP − xFIP+0.22 61
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed67.5%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Fastball
Hard · 28.4% usage
-0.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.5 mph
Avg launch angle26.0°
HRs allowed1
Pitches238
Sinker
Hard · 21.7% usage
+1.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.3 mph
Avg launch angle7.1°
HRs allowed1
Pitches182
Slider
Breaking · 16.2% usage
-0.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.0 mph
Avg launch angle14.3°
HRs allowed2
Pitches136
Cutter
Hard · 12.2% usage
-1.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.4 mph
Avg launch angle10.8°
HRs allowed3
Pitches102
Changeup
Offspeed · 12.1% usage
-0.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.0 mph
Avg launch angle1.4°
HRs allowed0
Pitches101
Sweeper
Breaking · 9.3% usage
+2.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against88.7 mph
Avg launch angle9.1°
HRs allowed1
Pitches78
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Stephen Kolek.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
10 allowed · scored pool
avg 99.4 EV · 381 ft
5 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 10 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-02
8
1
112.5
2026-06-21
8
3
109.7
2026-06-14
6
0
108.1
2026-06-09
9
0
112.5
2026-06-03
9
1
107.6
2026-05-29
9
3
108.8
2026-05-23
9
0
108.7
2026-05-17
9
0
112.8
2026-05-12
9
1
100.9
2026-05-05
9
1
107.6
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Stephen Kolek isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.