MLB Home Run Predictions — May 26, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-05-26: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for May 26, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #6 | James Wood | Joey Cantillo | 77 | B AboveAvg |
| #7 | Juan Soto | Chase Burns | 75 | B AboveAvg |
| #8 | Munetaka Murakami | Joe Ryan | 74 | B AboveAvg |
| #15 | Hunter Goodman | Eric Lauer | 70 | B AboveAvg |
| #27 | Bryce Harper | Randy Vásquez | 65 | C+ Value |
| #36 | Samuel Basallo | Griffin Jax | 62 | C+ Value |
| #40 | Andy Pages | Kyle Freeland | 61 | C+ Value |
| #44 | Casey Schmitt | Eduardo Rodriguez | 60 | C+ Value |
| #46 | Jake Bauers | Michael McGreevy | 60 | C+ Value |
| #55 | Ketel Marte | Tyler Mahle | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #57 | Yordan Álvarez | Jack Leiter | 56 | C BelowAvg |
| #58 | Matt Olson | Ranger Suarez | 56 | C BelowAvg |
| #68 | Michael Harris II | Ranger Suarez | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #69 | Cody Bellinger | Bailey Falter | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #70 | Will Smith | Kyle Freeland | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #77 | Jarren Duran | Spencer Strider | 49 | D Below |
| #79 | Tyler Soderstrom | Emerson Hancock | 48 | D Below |
| #81 | Amed Rosario | Bailey Falter | 48 | D Below |
| #94 | Bobby Witt Jr. | Cam Schlittler | 46 | D Below |
| #98 | Garrett Mitchell | Michael McGreevy | 46 | D Below |
| #102 | Trent Grisham | Bailey Falter | 45 | D Below |
| #105 | Manny Machado | Aaron Nola | 45 | D Below |
| #112 | Ramón Laureano | Aaron Nola | 44 | D Below |
| #123 | Willy Adames | Eduardo Rodriguez | 43 | D Below |
| #131 | Ceddanne Rafaela | Spencer Strider | 42 | D Below |
| #133 | Spencer Horwitz | Jordan Wicks | 42 | D Below |
| #135 | Jesús Sánchez | Sandy Alcantara | 41 | D Below |
| #148 | Jo Adell | Keider Montero | 40 | D Below |
| #160 | Jazz Chisholm Jr. | Bailey Falter | 38 | D Below |
| #171 | Kyle Karros | Eric Lauer | 37 | D Below |
| #173 | Evan Carter | Jason Alexander | 37 | D Below |
| #174 | Ernie Clement | Sandy Alcantara | 37 | D Below |
| #179 | Trea Turner | Randy Vásquez | 35 | D Below |
| #183 | Cam Smith | Jack Leiter | 34 | D Below |
| #188 | Adrian Del Castillo | Tyler Mahle | 33 | D Below |
| #189 | Joc Pederson | Jason Alexander | 33 | D Below |
| #216 | Yohendrick Piñango | Sandy Alcantara | 28 | D Below |
| #220 | Vaughn Grissom | Keider Montero | 26 | D Below |
| #232 | Wenceel Pérez | Jack Kochanowicz | 22 | D Below |
| #238 | Anthony Volpe | Bailey Falter | 22 | D Below |
| #244 | Isiah Kiner-Falefa | Spencer Strider | 20 | D Below |
| #245 | J. T. Realmuto | Randy Vásquez | 19 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Ketel Marte, Yordan Álvarez, Matt Olson, Michael Harris II, Cody Bellinger, Will Smith, Jarren Duran, Tyler Soderstrom, Amed Rosario, Bobby Witt Jr., Garrett Mitchell, Trent Grisham, Manny Machado, Ramón Laureano, Willy Adames, Ceddanne Rafaela, Spencer Horwitz, Jesús Sánchez, Jo Adell, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Kyle Karros, Evan Carter, Ernie Clement, Trea Turner, Cam Smith, Adrian Del Castillo, Joc Pederson, Yohendrick Piñango, Vaughn Grissom, Wenceel Pérez, Anthony Volpe, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, J. T. Realmuto