MLB Home Run Predictions — April 19, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-04-19: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for April 19, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
21
HRs by scored batters
3/5
Top-5 picks that homered
4/15
Top-15 picks that homered
51.9 vs 42.8
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Ben Rice | Cole Ragans | 90 | A+ Premium |
| #2 | Aaron Judge | Cole Ragans | 90 | A+ Premium |
| #4 | Yordan Alvarez | Matthew Liberatore | 87 | A Excellent |
| #7 | Kyle Schwarber | Grant Holmes | 85 | A Excellent |
| #20 | Mickey Moniak | Roki Sasaki | 72 | B AboveAvg |
| #32 | Trent Grisham | Cole Ragans | 66 | C+ Value |
| #40 | Michael Harris II | Andrew Painter | 65 | C+ Value |
| #48 | Colson Montgomery | Jeffrey Springs | 63 | C+ Value |
| #64 | Miguel Vargas | Jeffrey Springs | 58 | C BelowAvg |
| #68 | José Ramírez | Trevor Rogers | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #92 | Dillon Dingler | Garrett Crochet | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #113 | Curtis Mead | Robbie Ray | 47 | D Below |
| #141 | Kyle Karros | Roki Sasaki | 43 | D Below |
| #157 | Willson Contreras | Framber Valdez | 39 | D Below |
| #164 | Taylor Ward | Joey Cantillo | 37 | D Below |
| #197 | Junior Caminero | Mitch Keller | 30 | D Below |
| #217 | Randy Arozarena | MacKenzie Gore | 25 | D Below |
| #228 | J.P. Crawford | MacKenzie Gore | 23 | D Below |
| #230 | MJ Melendez | Javier Assad | 23 | D Below |
| #234 | Jorge Barrosa | Kevin Gausman | 22 | D Below |
| #249 | Nick Yorke | Shane McClanahan | 15 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Miguel Vargas, José Ramírez, Dillon Dingler, Curtis Mead, Kyle Karros, Willson Contreras, Taylor Ward, Junior Caminero, Randy Arozarena, J.P. Crawford, MJ Melendez, Jorge Barrosa, Nick Yorke
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.