⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 6 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 7 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 8 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 9 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 10 James Wood 4 HRs · 11 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 12 Ketel Marte 4 HRs 1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 6 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 7 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 8 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 9 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 10 James Wood 4 HRs · 11 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 12 Ketel Marte 4 HRs
SF
@ 6:45p
WSH
Nationals Park · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
0.94×
Weather Mod
+1.0%
warm air · steady crosswind · roof open
Combined
1.038
Temp
79.9°F
Wind
9.2 mph
cross
Roof
open
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 James Wood James Wood 82 🟢 A · 🌤️ WARM 13 0.270 94.7 23.8% 50.0% 395 40.0% 25.0% 28.9% 33
2 CJ Abrams CJ Abrams 73 🟡 B · · 28 0.339 91.9 14.0% 37.5% 379 25.0% 25.0% 28.3% 36
3 Joey Wiemer Joey Wiemer 42 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 122 0.244 91.0 10.0% 40.0% 391 0.0% 0.0% 14.7% 10
4 Luis García Jr. 36 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 153 0.134 90.8 8.5% 11.1% 405 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 33
5 Jacob Young Jacob Young 34 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 164 0.189 88.4 7.1% 25.0% 383 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 33
6 Brady House Brady House 33 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 171 0.143 88.7 9.8% 15.4% 395 0.0% 0.0% 7.6% 32
7 Daylen Lile Daylen Lile 17 ⚪ D · · 241 0.060 88.4 3.2% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 5.1% 47
8 Jorbit Vivas Jorbit Vivas 9 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 256 0.027 80.0 0.0% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 26
9 Nasim Nuñez Nasim Nuñez 8 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 257 0.018 85.1 0.0% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 33
Zack Littell
Zack Littell RHP 💥 Meltdown
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Willy Adames Willy Adames 64 🔵 C+ · · 49 0.247 88.4 12.0% 17.6% 375 14.3% 11.1% 20.8% 35
2 Casey Schmitt Casey Schmitt 47 ⚪ D · · 102 0.163 93.3 10.7% 10.0% 385 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 20
3 Rafael Devers Rafael Devers 42 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 121 0.095 90.7 10.9% 12.5% 408 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 31
4 Matt Chapman Matt Chapman 40 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 129 0.122 88.7 3.8% 16.7% 349 7.1% 0.0% 9.3% 38
5 Jung Hoo Lee Jung Hoo Lee 37 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 141 0.139 88.9 2.0% 7.7% 361 7.1% 11.1% 8.9% 36
6 Harrison Bader Harrison Bader 30 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 184 0.077 87.1 8.3% 14.3% 408 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 18
7 Heliot Ramos Heliot Ramos 24 ⚪ D · · 219 0.031 89.3 5.1% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 25
8 Luis Arraez Luis Arraez 24 ⚪ D · · 221 0.075 85.4 0.0% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% 40
9 Patrick Bailey Patrick Bailey 21 ⚪ D · · 230 0.000 89.1 5.3% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 27
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.85

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.