2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Brandon Marsh 5 HRs · 2 Bryce Harper 5 HRs · 3 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 4 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 5 Ketel Marte 5 HRs · 6 Junior Caminero 5 HRs · 7 Joc Pederson 5 HRs · 8 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 9 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 10 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs · 11 Caleb Durbin 4 HRs · 12 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs 1 Brandon Marsh 5 HRs · 2 Bryce Harper 5 HRs · 3 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 4 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 5 Ketel Marte 5 HRs · 6 Junior Caminero 5 HRs · 7 Joc Pederson 5 HRs · 8 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 9 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 10 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs · 11 Caleb Durbin 4 HRs · 12 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs
PIT
@ 6:40p
PHI
Citizens Bank Park · 15 ranked batters
Stadium Conditions

Citizens Bank Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open
Park 1.17× Wind 3 mph out 69°F open
+16
10 mph · out
87°F
6:40p
Strong boost for HR environment
+14
10 mph · out
85°F
7:40p
Boost for HR environment
+13
9 mph · out
83°F
8:40p
Boost for HR environment
+15
10 mph · out
80°F
9:40p
Strong boost for HR environment
+15
10 mph · out
78°F
10:40p
Strong boost for HR environment
⚪ Boost · Combined 1.17

69°F, wind 3 mph SW (out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

Bubba Chandler
Bubba Chandler RHP
1.02 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP -0.35 ·
8 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Kyle Schwarber Kyle Schwarber 80 🟢 A +1000 🌤️ WARM 1 0.337 93.6 12.4% 47.6% vs RHP 404 27.3% 33.3% 42.8% 23
2 Bryce Harper Bryce Harper 70 🟡 B +290 · 6 0.251 90.2 9.6% 42.1% vs RHP 400 22.5% 38.5% 41.0% 36
3 Brandon Marsh Brandon Marsh 59 🟠 C +400 🌤️ WARM 41 0.185 89.9 7.9% 25.0% vs RHP 394 14.3% 38.5% 26.5% 32
4 Bryson Stott Bryson Stott 49 ⚪ D +475 · 92 0.154 89.2 7.3% 11.1% vs RHP 393 9.3% 7.7% 11.0% 36
5 Alec Bohm Alec Bohm 46 ⚪ D +700 🌤️ WARM 112 0.131 89.7 5.7% 16.7% vs RHP 385 10.4% 8.3% 8.4% 36
6 Trea Turner Trea Turner 43 ⚪ D +500 · 130 0.101 88.7 6.2% 13.3% vs RHP 394 10.1% 8.3% 8.0% 35
7 J.T. Realmuto J.T. Realmuto 40 ⚪ D +625 · 148 0.119 · 6.2% 17.9% vs RHP · 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 26
8 Justin Crawford Justin Crawford 37 ⚪ D +950 ❄ COLD 175 0.094 87.0 2.9% 6.9% vs RHP 382 3.4% 0.0% 8.7% 26
Cristopher Sánchez
Cristopher Sánchez LHP
0.63 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP -0.02 ·
7 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Brandon Lowe Brandon Lowe 64 🔵 C+ +575 🌤️ WARM 17 0.260 90.8 10.7% 19.1% vs LHP 392 18.1% 25.0% 28.2% 35
2 Bryan Reynolds Bryan Reynolds 55 🟠 C +750 · 55 0.185 91.4 9.6% 27.8% vs LHP 410 12.8% 16.7% 26.4% 31
3 Ryan O'Hearn Ryan O'Hearn 52 🟠 C +950 · 69 0.187 89.7 7.7% 18.8% vs LHP 382 16.7% 16.7% 20.3% 38
4 Marcell Ozuna Marcell Ozuna 47 ⚪ D +525 🔥 HOT 99 0.120 89.7 8.8% 21.4% vs LHP 413 9.1% 25.0% 17.5% 11
5 Konnor Griffin Konnor Griffin 46 ⚪ D +750 🌤️ WARM 106 0.139 87.6 8.7% 11.1% vs LHP 401 7.3% 33.3% 16.1% 8
6 Nick Gonzales Nick Gonzales 34 ⚪ D +850 · 192 0.077 85.8 5.2% 0.0% vs LHP 403 4.0% 9.1% 7.3% 29
7 Jake Mangum Jake Mangum 30 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 210 0.052 83.7 3.4% 0.0% vs LHP 410 2.4% 0.0% 7.3% 32
🏟️
Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

12 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.3.33 · build 534

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.