⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 4 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 5 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 6 James Wood 4 HRs · 7 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 8 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 9 Julio Rodríguez 4 HRs · 10 Ketel Marte 4 HRs · 11 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 12 Michael Harris II 4 HRs 1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 4 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 5 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 6 James Wood 4 HRs · 7 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 8 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 9 Julio Rodríguez 4 HRs · 10 Ketel Marte 4 HRs · 11 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 12 Michael Harris II 4 HRs
PIT
@ 2:20p
CHC
Wrigley Field · 16 ranked batters
Park Factor
1.03×
Weather Mod
+1.0%
cold air · steady partial wind out · roof open
Combined
1.133
Temp
46.4°F
Wind
13.3 mph
slight_out
Roof
open
7 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Oneil Cruz Oneil Cruz 69 🔵 C+ · · 14 0.178 95.8 14.4% 17.7% 410 30.0% 33.3% 21.9% 30
2 Bryan Reynolds Bryan Reynolds 60 🔵 C+ · 🌤️ WARM 39 0.157 91.2 10.8% 13.4% 400 18.2% 20.0% 13.9% 29
3 Marcell Ozuna Marcell Ozuna 44 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 129 0.168 89.9 11.5% 15.0% 411 0.0% 0.0% 11.3% 20
4 Ryan O'Hearn Ryan O'Hearn 42 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 143 0.156 89.4 9.4% 13.5% 392 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% 31
5 Joey Bart Joey Bart 40 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 167 0.091 88.4 11.0% 7.1% 402 0.0% 0.0% 7.6% 7
6 Nick Gonzales Nick Gonzales 35 ⚪ D · · 204 0.102 88.8 7.2% 5.0% 396 0.0% 0.0% 5.1% 30
7 Nick Yorke Nick Yorke 32 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 217 0.087 85.6 4.7% 6.3% 393 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 18
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Ian Happ Ian Happ 58 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 47 0.178 90.0 7.9% 13.3% 393 41.7% 45.5% 15.8% 20
2 Alex Bregman Alex Bregman 54 🟠 C · 🔥 HOT 67 0.189 90.1 6.3% 11.2% 386 8.3% 9.1% 10.0% 37
3 Seiya Suzuki Seiya Suzuki 51 🟠 C · · 82 0.233 91.3 10.0% 16.5% 398 0.0% 0.0% 17.1% 0
4 Pete Crow-Armstrong Pete Crow-Armstrong 50 🟠 C · 🌧️ COOL 88 0.234 89.5 8.8% 14.2% 395 8.3% 9.1% 12.7% 32
5 Michael Busch Michael Busch 49 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 93 0.261 92.2 10.1% 20.9% 397 0.0% 0.0% 16.2% 32
6 Moisés Ballesteros Moisés Ballesteros 49 ⚪ D · 🔥 HOT 96 0.175 89.1 6.3% 22.2% 401 0.0% 0.0% 13.4% 18
7 Dansby Swanson Dansby Swanson 49 ⚪ D · · 99 0.173 90.5 8.4% 15.5% 403 16.7% 18.2% 9.8% 23
8 Carson Kelly Carson Kelly 43 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 140 0.179 88.8 7.6% 13.6% 386 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 22
9 Nico Hoerner Nico Hoerner 26 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 237 0.097 86.7 3.7% 3.7% 379 8.3% 9.1% 3.6% 34
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

13 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.88

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.