⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 4 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 5 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 6 James Wood 4 HRs · 7 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 8 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 9 Julio Rodríguez 4 HRs · 10 Ketel Marte 4 HRs · 11 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 12 Michael Harris II 4 HRs 1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 4 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 5 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 6 James Wood 4 HRs · 7 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 8 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 9 Julio Rodríguez 4 HRs · 10 Ketel Marte 4 HRs · 11 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 12 Michael Harris II 4 HRs
NYM
@
SF
Oracle Park · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
0.87×
Weather Mod
-1.0%
cool air · light crosswind · roof open
Combined
0.783
Temp
58.9°F
Wind
5.0 mph
cross
Roof
open
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Pete Alonso Pete Alonso 59 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 41 0.252 93.5 12.5% 19.3% 408 14.3% 14.3% 12.0% 19
2 Juan Soto Juan Soto 51 🟠 C · ❄ COLD 88 0.262 93.8 12.3% 25.1% 400 12.5% 12.5% 13.7% 15
3 Mark Vientos Mark Vientos 48 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 104 0.179 91.4 9.8% 14.9% 394 16.7% 16.7% 10.6% 12
4 Brandon Nimmo Brandon Nimmo 45 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 127 0.174 91.9 8.6% 15.0% 388 14.3% 14.3% 10.6% 16
5 Brett Baty Brett Baty 41 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 153 0.181 90.7 10.3% 22.5% 399 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% 18
6 Francisco Lindor Francisco Lindor 34 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 195 0.199 90.5 8.6% 15.0% 390 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 21
7 Starling Marte Starling Marte 33 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 206 0.140 87.6 8.1% 12.7% 397 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 13
8 Tyrone Taylor Tyrone Taylor 28 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 228 0.097 86.5 5.6% 2.0% 402 16.7% 16.7% 3.9% 9
9 Jeff McNeil Jeff McNeil 24 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 234 0.168 87.2 6.5% 8.5% 392 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 17
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Willy Adames Willy Adames 53 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 72 0.196 88.9 10.0% 15.1% 401 16.7% 16.7% 10.8% 13
2 Matt Chapman Matt Chapman 49 ⚪ D · · 98 0.198 92.2 8.8% 14.8% 399 16.7% 16.7% 10.7% 18
3 Dominic Smith Dominic Smith 42 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 150 0.132 87.7 5.8% 8.3% 396 28.6% 28.6% 8.0% 16
4 Jung Hoo Lee Jung Hoo Lee 38 ⚪ D · 🔥 HOT 178 0.141 87.1 5.4% 4.9% 381 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 18
5 Wilmer Flores Wilmer Flores 36 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 189 0.138 85.9 6.2% 10.7% 378 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 17
6 Casey Schmitt Casey Schmitt 33 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 207 0.163 89.5 8.4% 12.1% 394 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 16
7 Heliot Ramos Heliot Ramos 28 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 223 0.144 91.8 8.3% 11.9% 403 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 14
8 Tyler Fitzgerald Tyler Fitzgerald 26 ⚪ D · 🔥 HOT 229 0.111 84.5 6.0% 6.3% 380 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 4
9 Patrick Bailey Patrick Bailey 23 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 237 0.103 88.2 6.7% 4.9% 379 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 17
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.88

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.