MIL
@
7:15p
ATL
Stadium Conditions
Truist Park
First pitch 7:15p
· roof open
Park 0.95×
Wind 4 mph in
86°F
open
-8
10 mph · in
78°F
7:15p
Suppress for HR environment
-8
10 mph · in
78°F
8:15p
Suppress for HR environment
-8
10 mph · in
78°F
9:15p
Suppress for HR environment
-8
10 mph · in
78°F
10:15p
Suppress for HR environment
-8
10 mph · in
78°F
11:15p
Suppress for HR environment
⚪ Boost · Combined 1.14
86°F, wind 4 mph NNE (in) — modifier: +2. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.
8 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Jackson Chourio | 69 | 🔵 C+ | +400 | 🌧️ COOL | 15 | 0.262 | 92.1 | 10.2% | 60.0% vs LHP | 395 | 21.2% | 50.0% | 36.1% | 45 |
| 2 |
|
Brice Turang | 53 | 🟠 C | +950 | 🌧️ COOL | 63 | 0.208 | 90.9 | 8.1% | 12.5% vs LHP | 406 | 11.6% | 27.3% | 19.8% | 31 |
| 3 |
|
Garrett Mitchell | 48 | ⚪ D | +850 | 🌤️ WARM | 92 | 0.168 | 92.5 | 10.1% | 20.0% | 422 | 7.7% | 18.2% | 15.1% | 28 |
| 4 |
|
William Contreras | 40 | ⚪ D | +500 | 🌤️ WARM | 136 | 0.140 | 89.8 | 7.2% | 11.8% vs LHP | 420 | 9.1% | 18.2% | 8.1% | 39 |
| 5 |
|
Andrew Vaughn | 39 | ⚪ D | +525 | · | 139 | 0.193 | 89.4 | 4.9% | 22.2% vs LHP | 412 | 6.7% | 0.0% | 12.4% | 26 |
| 6 |
|
Christian Yelich | 38 | ⚪ D | +850 | · | 146 | 0.144 | 89.0 | 7.0% | 22.7% | 399 | 7.9% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 31 |
| 7 |
|
Blake Perkins | 36 | ⚪ D | +850 | 🌤️ WARM | 158 | 0.092 | 86.7 | 6.0% | 14.3% vs LHP | 399 | 11.1% | 33.3% | 12.8% | 9 |
| 8 |
|
Joey Ortiz | 20 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 211 | 0.052 | 87.3 | 4.7% | 0.0% vs LHP | 395 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.9% | 25 |
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Matt Olson | 58 | 🟠 C | +305 | · | 45 | 0.289 | 93.5 | 6.2% | 32.6% vs RHP | 409 | 23.3% | 15.4% | 27.3% | 30 |
| 2 |
|
Drake Baldwin | 50 | 🟠 C | +400 | 🌧️ COOL | 77 | 0.240 | 92.5 | 7.1% | 26.1% vs RHP | 407 | 23.1% | 0.0% | 18.6% | 5 |
| 3 |
|
Eli White | 45 | ⚪ D | +750 | 🌤️ WARM | 106 | 0.194 | 87.6 | 4.3% | 25.0% vs RHP | 366 | 22.2% | 33.3% | 14.7% | 16 |
| 4 |
|
Jorge Mateo | 37 | ⚪ D | +625 | 🌤️ WARM | 151 | 0.171 | 90.3 | 5.3% | 18.2% vs RHP | 399 | 14.3% | 0.0% | 9.5% | 10 |
| 5 |
|
Austin Riley | 35 | ⚪ D | +525 | · | 165 | 0.167 | 91.2 | 5.3% | 14.3% vs RHP | 409 | 8.3% | 0.0% | 8.8% | 24 |
| 6 |
|
Dominic Smith | 32 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 178 | 0.145 | 88.8 | 4.3% | 14.6% vs RHP | 390 | 8.6% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 29 |
| 7 |
|
Ozzie Albies | 30 | ⚪ D | +575 | · | 187 | 0.152 | 87.1 | 3.5% | 12.8% vs RHP | 390 | 12.3% | 0.0% | 8.0% | 32 |
| 8 |
|
Mauricio Dubon | 27 | ⚪ D | +850 | 🌧️ COOL | 195 | 0.144 | 86.6 | 4.1% | 15.2% vs RHP | 393 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.4% | 33 |
| 9 |
|
Mike Yastrzemski | 27 | ⚪ D | +850 | 🌧️ COOL | 197 | 0.136 | 90.5 | 3.2% | 14.3% vs RHP | 374 | 6.5% | 0.0% | 7.3% | 18 |