2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Wyatt Langford 6 HRs · 3 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 4 Kazuma Okamoto 5 HRs · 5 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 6 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 9 Brandon Lowe 4 HRs · 10 Brandon Marsh 4 HRs · 11 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs · 12 Joc Pederson 4 HRs 1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Wyatt Langford 6 HRs · 3 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 4 Kazuma Okamoto 5 HRs · 5 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 6 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 9 Brandon Lowe 4 HRs · 10 Brandon Marsh 4 HRs · 11 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs · 12 Joc Pederson 4 HRs
MIA
@ 7:15p
STL
Busch Stadium · 14 ranked batters
Stadium Conditions

Busch Stadium

First pitch 7:15p · roof open
Park 0.83× Wind 1 mph in 70°F open
-5
2 mph · cross
75°F
7:15p
Suppress for HR environment
-5
3 mph · slight_out
74°F
8:15p
Suppress for HR environment
-3
3 mph · slight_out
73°F
9:15p
Neutral for HR environment
-2
3 mph · out
72°F
10:15p
Neutral for HR environment
-2
3 mph · out
71°F
11:15p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Suppress · Combined 0.83

70°F, wind 1 mph WNW (in) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

Michael McGreevy
Michael McGreevy RHP
1.34 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP +0.54 ·
7 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Owen Caissie Owen Caissie 56 🟠 C +525 🌤️ WARM 54 0.192 91.3 12.0% 26.5% vs RHP 391 13.5% 33.3% 20.0% 20
2 Kyle Stowers Kyle Stowers 51 🟠 C +390 🌤️ WARM 76 0.203 90.6 10.3% 20.0% vs RHP 401 9.4% 18.2% 19.7% 23
3 Heriberto Hernández Heriberto Hernández 42 ⚪ D +500 🔥 HOT 119 0.181 92.2 9.7% 19.1% vs RHP 409 0.0% 0.0% 17.2% 26
4 Otto Lopez Otto Lopez 36 ⚪ D +750 🌧️ COOL 155 0.140 89.8 8.0% 11.1% vs RHP 400 6.4% 8.3% 7.0% 43
5 Xavier Edwards Xavier Edwards 32 ⚪ D +950 🌧️ COOL 183 0.134 87.1 7.1% 4.7% vs RHP 396 6.5% 0.0% 6.1% 34
6 Jakob Marsee Jakob Marsee 28 ⚪ D +950 🌧️ COOL 201 0.100 86.6 5.8% 7.7% vs RHP 379 6.6% 8.3% 6.3% 30
7 Javier Sanoja Javier Sanoja 23 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 217 0.104 87.0 3.5% 0.0% vs RHP 369 4.3% 0.0% 5.4% 30
Max Meyer
Max Meyer RHP
0.80 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP -0.30 ·
7 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Jordan Walker Jordan Walker 53 🟠 C +425 🌧️ COOL 66 0.235 93.9 10.8% 30.2% vs RHP 408 17.9% 7.7% 14.7% 36
2 Alec Burleson Alec Burleson 47 ⚪ D +500 · 92 0.201 91.7 9.5% 23.1% vs RHP 405 17.3% 18.2% 9.8% 42
3 Ivan Herrera Ivan Herrera 33 ⚪ D +700 🌤️ WARM 172 0.166 89.9 7.7% 19.4% vs RHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 15.6% 34
4 Nathan Church Nathan Church 32 ⚪ D +850 · 182 0.141 85.9 8.8% 22.7% vs RHP 387 6.4% 0.0% 6.9% 20
5 Jj Wetherholt Jj Wetherholt 31 ⚪ D +575 🌧️ COOL 185 0.149 90.0 7.9% 19.6% vs RHP 389 0.0% 0.0% 10.4% 41
6 Pedro Pages Pedro Pages 27 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 203 0.134 87.0 7.1% 20.0% vs RHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 8
7 Masyn Winn Masyn Winn 23 ⚪ D +950 · 215 0.091 87.7 5.4% 13.6% vs RHP 389 4.1% 9.1% 6.8% 37
🏟️
Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

11 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.3.16 · build 516

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.