MIA
@
7:15p
ATL
Park Factor
1.13×
Weather Mod
+3.0%
hot air · steady wind out · roof open
Combined
1.470
Temp
84.9°F
Wind
8.2 mph
out
Roof
open
Chris Paddack
RHP
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Ronald Acuña Jr. | 68 | 🔵 C+ | · | · | 5 | 0.228 | 88.0 | 6.5% | 23.1% | 411 | 50.0% | 100.0% | 25.3% | 42 |
| 2 |
|
Matt Olson | 66 | 🔵 C+ | · | · | 7 | 0.212 | 92.5 | 7.0% | 16.0% | 424 | 18.8% | 27.3% | 33.1% | 36 |
| 3 |
|
Drake Baldwin | 60 | 🔵 C+ | · | · | 17 | 0.195 | 89.4 | 6.5% | 18.1% | 394 | 31.2% | 18.2% | 19.2% | 44 |
| 4 | Michael Harris II | 52 | 🟠 C | · | · | 32 | 0.160 | 92.1 | 6.4% | 12.5% | 399 | 12.5% | 9.1% | 13.1% | 29 | |
| 5 |
|
Dominic Smith | 48 | ⚪ D | · | · | 45 | 0.132 | 91.5 | 4.9% | 8.3% | 396 | 15.4% | 11.1% | 14.2% | 25 |
| 6 |
|
Ozzie Albies | 48 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 47 | 0.124 | 86.0 | 3.0% | 7.2% | 376 | 12.5% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 38 |
| 7 |
|
Austin Riley | 40 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 78 | 0.168 | 89.1 | 3.9% | 12.4% | · | 0.0% | 0.0% | 13.7% | 38 |
| 8 |
|
Mike Yastrzemski | 39 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 83 | 0.170 | 89.8 | 2.6% | 9.6% | · | 0.0% | 0.0% | 12.2% | 27 |
| 9 |
|
Mauricio Dubón | 37 | ⚪ D | · | · | 92 | 0.114 | 88.3 | 4.5% | 5.5% | 393 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.1% | 41 |
Bryce Elder
RHP
7 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Otto Lopez | 54 | 🟠 C | · | 🌤️ WARM | 29 | 0.121 | 93.0 | 13.2% | 0.0% | 385 | 11.8% | 16.7% | 0.8% | 38 |
| 2 |
|
Connor Norby | 48 | ⚪ D | · | · | 48 | 0.138 | 87.4 | 10.5% | 0.0% | 376 | 11.8% | 16.7% | 1.2% | 29 |
| 3 | Heriberto Hernández | 40 | ⚪ D | · | · | 81 | 0.172 | 90.4 | 6.1% | 0.0% | · | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.5% | 24 | |
| 4 |
|
Liam Hicks | 36 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 101 | 0.099 | 88.8 | 6.1% | 0.0% | 367 | 20.0% | 9.1% | 0.5% | 38 |
| 5 |
|
Jakob Marsee | 32 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 113 | 0.187 | 88.3 | 2.0% | 0.0% | · | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 37 |
| 6 |
|
Graham Pauley | 31 | ⚪ D | · | · | 116 | 0.143 | 81.7 | 3.4% | 0.0% | · | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 24 |
| 7 |
|
Xavier Edwards ⚡ | 27 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 128 | 0.070 | 89.8 | 3.4% | 0.0% | 377 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 41 |