HOU
@
4:10p
BOS
Park Factor
0.82×
Weather Mod
+0.0%
cold air · steady wind out · roof open
Combined
0.824
Temp
49.0°F
Wind
9.2 mph
out
Roof
open
Connelly Early
LHP
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Yordan Alvarez | 56 | 🟠 C | · | · | 10 | 0.381 | 93.5 | · | 33.3% | 393 | 47.1% | 41.7% | 38.2% | 46 |
| 2 |
|
Christian Walker | 49 | ⚪ D | · | · | 27 | 0.280 | 90.3 | · | 22.2% | 399 | 19.4% | 25.0% | 20.5% | 37 |
| 3 |
|
Isaac Paredes | 33 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 115 | 0.145 | 87.4 | · | 0.0% | 374 | 6.5% | 16.7% | 6.4% | 43 |
| 4 |
|
Yainer Diaz | 32 | ⚪ D | · | 🔥 HOT | 119 | 0.120 | 88.1 | · | 16.7% | 380 | 7.1% | 9.1% | 6.0% | 33 |
| 5 |
|
Brice Matthews | 26 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 161 | 0.208 | 86.9 | · | 40.0% | 411 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.6% | 24 |
| 6 |
|
Carlos Correa | 24 | ⚪ D | · | · | 174 | 0.129 | 89.7 | · | 50.0% | 384 | 5.9% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 33 |
| 7 |
|
Jose Altuve | 20 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 202 | 0.146 | 85.4 | · | 21.4% | 378 | 6.9% | 0.0% | 7.1% | 34 |
| 8 |
|
Cam Smith | 20 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 203 | 0.138 | 88.5 | · | 14.3% | 406 | 13.3% | 9.1% | 6.2% | 21 |
| 9 |
|
Joey Loperfido | 9 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 255 | 0.086 | 90.0 | · | 0.0% | · | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.2% | 14 |
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Willson Contreras | 43 | ⚪ D | · | · | 56 | 0.224 | 92.7 | · | 30.8% | 403 | 22.2% | 33.3% | 25.1% | 33 |
| 2 |
|
Wilyer Abreu | 28 | ⚪ D | · | · | 145 | 0.175 | 89.9 | · | 17.2% | 380 | 14.8% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 43 |
| 3 |
|
Carlos Narváez | 24 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 175 | 0.125 | 92.4 | · | 15.4% | 386 | 18.2% | 20.0% | 12.0% | 19 |
| 4 |
|
Caleb Durbin | 22 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 186 | 0.091 | 86.0 | · | 12.5% | 386 | 3.7% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 37 |
| 5 |
|
Ceddanne Rafaela | 17 | ⚪ D | · | · | 221 | 0.116 | 88.6 | · | 15.4% | 337 | 3.8% | 0.0% | 7.1% | 32 |
| 6 |
|
Marcelo Mayer | 16 | ⚪ D | · | · | 227 | 0.120 | 87.8 | · | 0.0% | 385 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.8% | 27 |
| 7 |
|
Jarren Duran | 15 | ⚪ D | · | · | 233 | 0.080 | 89.9 | · | 22.2% | 416 | 3.7% | 9.1% | 5.5% | 32 |
| 8 |
|
Trevor Story | 14 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 238 | 0.098 | 89.5 | · | 12.5% | 407 | 7.4% | 0.0% | 6.8% | 31 |
| 9 |
|
Roman Anthony | 11 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 247 | 0.084 | 92.2 | · | 6.7% | 391 | 4.2% | 0.0% | 4.5% | 20 |