⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 6 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 7 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 8 James Wood 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs 1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 6 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 7 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 8 James Wood 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs
DET
@ 1:40p
CIN
Great American Ball Park · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
1.18×
Weather Mod
-1.0%
cold air · steady partial wind out · roof open
Combined
1.062
Temp
52.0°F
Wind
10.4 mph
slight_out
Roof
open
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Elly De La Cruz Elly De La Cruz 85 🟢 A · 🌤️ WARM 6 0.294 95.8 15.1% 25.0% 394 25.0% 30.0% 25.2% 36
2 Nathaniel Lowe Nathaniel Lowe 83 🟢 A · 🌤️ WARM 10 0.308 91.7 10.7% 42.9% 417 50.0% 50.0% 25.7% 16
3 Sal Stewart Sal Stewart 80 🟢 A · 🌧️ COOL 13 0.323 91.3 23.7% 28.0% 394 9.1% 11.1% 26.6% 38
4 Spencer Steer Spencer Steer 73 🟡 B · 🌤️ WARM 26 0.203 89.5 17.9% 10.5% 393 12.5% 20.0% 16.6% 23
5 Matt McLain Matt McLain 43 ⚪ D · · 134 0.112 87.8 10.3% 4.5% 420 4.2% 10.0% 7.6% 29
6 Ke'Bryan Hayes Ke'Bryan Hayes 39 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 158 0.061 90.1 7.3% 0.0% 363 11.1% 12.5% 5.0% 22
7 TJ Friedl TJ Friedl 32 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 193 0.065 86.5 1.5% 6.2% · 4.3% 11.1% 5.9% 32
8 Jose Trevino Jose Trevino 23 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 243 0.022 89.2 0.0% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 16
9 JJ Bleday JJ Bleday 13 ⚪ D · · 271 · · 0.0% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 0
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Kerry Carpenter Kerry Carpenter 75 🟡 B · · 23 0.268 93.2 12.2% 28.6% 382 20.0% 27.3% 27.8% 17
2 Spencer Torkelson Spencer Torkelson 68 🔵 C+ · 🌤️ WARM 39 0.188 90.4 13.2% 25.0% 406 14.8% 30.8% 17.4% 28
3 Riley Greene Riley Greene 64 🔵 C+ · 🌤️ WARM 48 0.174 89.8 14.5% 8.7% 406 11.1% 15.4% 12.1% 29
4 Jake Rogers Jake Rogers 58 🟠 C · · 67 0.176 88.8 16.7% 26.3% · 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 11
5 Kevin McGonigle Kevin McGonigle 55 🟠 C · · 77 0.206 88.1 12.2% 6.5% 408 0.0% 0.0% 11.7% 0
6 Matt Vierling Matt Vierling 38 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 166 0.157 88.1 2.5% 12.5% 350 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 27
7 Wenceel Pérez Wenceel Pérez 37 ⚪ D · · 168 0.076 90.8 9.7% 42.9% 360 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 28
8 Colt Keith Colt Keith 34 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 184 0.089 94.2 8.3% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 5.6% 27
9 Gleyber Torres Gleyber Torres 28 ⚪ D · · 217 0.052 83.2 5.3% 5.3% 364 3.7% 0.0% 5.2% 37
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.82

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.