⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 2 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 3 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 4 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 5 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 6 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 7 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 8 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 9 Yandy Díaz 4 HRs · 10 Ronald Acuña Jr. 4 HRs · 11 James Wood 4 HRs · 12 Michael Harris II 4 HRs 1 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 2 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 3 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 4 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 5 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 6 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 7 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 8 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 9 Yandy Díaz 4 HRs · 10 Ronald Acuña Jr. 4 HRs · 11 James Wood 4 HRs · 12 Michael Harris II 4 HRs
CHC
@ 7:10p
CWS
Rate Field · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
0.97×
Weather Mod
+0.0%
Unknown stadium
Combined
0.970
Jameson Taillon
Jameson Taillon RHP 💥 Meltdown
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Munetaka Murakami Munetaka Murakami 87 🟢 A +600 · 4 0.309 95.2 22.0% 36.7% 411 12.0% 18.2% 42.9% 23
2 Colson Montgomery Colson Montgomery 80 🟢 A +700 · 12 0.270 90.2 15.4% 32.0% 394 34.6% 30.0% 40.2% 28
3 Miguel Vargas Miguel Vargas 78 🟡 B +950 🌤️ WARM 17 0.233 89.7 15.2% 12.5% 391 25.0% 27.3% 29.1% 35
4 Drew Romo Drew Romo 72 🟡 B · · 23 0.420 84.3 15.4% 50.0% 373 0.0% 0.0% 37.6% 20
5 Jarred Kelenic Jarred Kelenic 58 🟠 C +800 · 55 · 96.8 23.1% 12.5% 446 50.0% 50.0% 12.4% 26
6 Sam Antonacci Sam Antonacci 47 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 95 0.140 88.5 10.7% 7.1% · 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 33
7 Andrew Benintendi Andrew Benintendi 43 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 116 0.125 89.1 11.6% 6.9% 391 8.3% 0.0% 8.1% 26
8 Chase Meidroth Chase Meidroth 33 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 176 0.120 87.4 4.3% 18.8% 383 3.6% 9.1% 15.6% 28
9 Tristan Peters Tristan Peters 23 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 224 0.062 87.6 3.9% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 26
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Ian Happ Ian Happ 78 🟡 B · 🔥 HOT 16 0.232 90.1 18.2% 36.4% 400 25.0% 23.1% 30.3% 24
2 Moisés Ballesteros Moisés Ballesteros 54 🟠 C · · 65 0.219 90.9 12.6% 27.3% 390 9.1% 9.1% 14.7% 25
3 Seiya Suzuki Seiya Suzuki 48 ⚪ D · · 89 0.226 88.6 8.6% 31.6% 414 12.0% 0.0% 15.0% 31
4 Michael Busch Michael Busch 40 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 132 0.125 87.9 9.3% 8.8% 408 6.8% 7.7% 6.5% 30
5 Dansby Swanson Dansby Swanson 38 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 145 0.166 90.6 8.8% 11.1% 393 13.6% 0.0% 6.2% 37
6 Pete Crow-Armstrong Pete Crow-Armstrong 35 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 160 0.133 90.9 8.4% 12.0% 383 9.3% 7.7% 7.2% 36
7 Alex Bregman Alex Bregman 32 ⚪ D · · 182 0.113 89.8 6.9% 23.1% 390 7.1% 7.7% 6.1% 36
8 Carson Kelly Carson Kelly 26 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 217 0.098 90.5 9.2% 0.0% 414 4.9% 0.0% 3.9% 23
9 Nico Hoerner Nico Hoerner 20 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 235 0.142 85.6 1.8% 6.5% 383 9.1% 0.0% 4.7% 49
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.79

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.