BOS
@
8:15p
STL
Park Factor
0.93×
Weather Mod
-3.0%
cool air · steady wind in · roof open
Combined
0.651
Temp
64.2°F
Wind
11.2 mph
in
Roof
open
Dustin May
RHP
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Wilyer Abreu | 66 | 🔵 C+ | · | 🌤️ WARM | 19 | 0.223 | 90.8 | 10.6% | 15.2% | 400 | 27.3% | 30.0% | 23.6% | 32 |
| 2 |
|
Willson Contreras | 54 | 🟠 C | · | · | 61 | 0.190 | 90.6 | 11.3% | 15.2% | 407 | 10.0% | 11.1% | 19.3% | 25 |
| 3 |
|
Marcelo Mayer | 46 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 117 | 0.173 | 90.0 | 9.2% | 13.8% | 404 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 12.3% | 17 |
| 4 |
|
Ceddanne Rafaela | 46 | ⚪ D | · | · | 121 | 0.165 | 88.3 | 9.2% | 9.3% | 391 | 10.0% | 11.1% | 8.1% | 23 |
| 5 |
|
Carlos Narváez | 44 | ⚪ D | · | · | 131 | 0.179 | 91.1 | 9.2% | 13.6% | 387 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.6% | 18 |
| 6 |
|
Trevor Story | 42 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 146 | 0.170 | 91.4 | 9.5% | 15.2% | 388 | 9.1% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 32 |
| 7 |
|
Jarren Duran | 42 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 149 | 0.185 | 91.8 | 9.4% | 9.0% | 401 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.9% | 17 |
| 8 |
|
Masataka Yoshida | 38 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 184 | 0.122 | 90.2 | 7.7% | 10.5% | 383 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.8% | 13 |
| 9 |
|
Caleb Durbin | 29 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 227 | 0.130 | 85.2 | 6.1% | 7.3% | 390 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.7% | 26 |
Connelly Early
LHP
8 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Jordan Walker | 43 | ⚪ D | · | 🔥 HOT | 141 | 0.091 | 92.3 | 6.9% | 0.0% | 415 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 0.8% | 26 |
| 2 |
|
Ramón Urías | 37 | ⚪ D | · | 🔥 HOT | 197 | 0.142 | 89.2 | 5.9% | 0.0% | 381 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.3% | 13 |
| 3 |
|
Pedro Pagés | 36 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 203 | 0.133 | 88.0 | 5.7% | 0.0% | 400 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 1.3% | 11 |
| 4 |
|
Alec Burleson | 35 | ⚪ D | · | · | 205 | 0.169 | 91.0 | 6.5% | 0.0% | 408 | 9.1% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 37 |
| 5 |
|
Iván Herrera | 28 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 230 | 0.180 | 91.2 | 7.0% | 0.0% | 407 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.8% | 31 |
| 6 |
|
Masyn Winn | 19 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 247 | 0.110 | 88.3 | 4.6% | 0.0% | 388 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 27 |
| 7 |
|
José Fermín | 18 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 248 | 0.133 | 87.1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 367 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 2 |
| 8 |
|
Victor Scott II | 12 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 251 | 0.080 | 86.1 | 4.0% | 0.0% | 397 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 25 |