BOS
@
7:40p
KC
Park Factor
0.89×
Weather Mod
-2.0%
cold air · steady crosswind · roof open
Combined
0.713
Temp
51.0°F
Wind
8.1 mph
cross
Roof
open
Connelly Early
LHP
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bobby Witt Jr. | 61 | 🔵 C+ | · | 🌤️ WARM | 38 | 0.200 | 93.5 | 12.0% | 12.5% | 404 | 13.3% | 33.3% | 16.6% | 43 | |
| 2 |
|
Jac Caglianone | 58 | 🟠 C | +950 | · | 47 | 0.166 | 94.2 | 17.7% | 20.0% | 408 | 10.3% | 10.0% | 13.9% | 28 |
| 3 |
|
Salvador Perez | 43 | ⚪ D | +700 | · | 115 | 0.142 | 88.4 | 8.5% | 20.0% | 394 | 15.6% | 16.7% | 10.0% | 33 |
| 4 |
|
Isaac Collins | 40 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 131 | 0.122 | 89.3 | 10.0% | 20.0% | 377 | 7.5% | 0.0% | 7.2% | 27 |
| 5 |
|
Carter Jensen | 39 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 141 | 0.177 | 90.1 | 9.6% | 0.0% | 387 | 13.3% | 0.0% | 9.1% | 24 |
| 6 |
|
Vinnie Pasquantino | 38 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 150 | 0.150 | 88.9 | 8.7% | 0.0% | 398 | 11.6% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 39 |
| 7 |
|
Maikel Garcia | 30 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 200 | 0.144 | 90.3 | 5.0% | 28.6% | 398 | 7.0% | 0.0% | 9.2% | 49 |
| 8 |
|
Kyle Isbel | 27 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 211 | 0.129 | 87.1 | 4.3% | 20.0% | 390 | 7.5% | 0.0% | 10.8% | 25 |
| 9 |
|
Lane Thomas | 16 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 253 | 0.053 | 85.4 | 3.1% | 10.0% | 407 | 9.1% | 0.0% | 6.2% | 14 |
Michael Wacha
RHP
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Willson Contreras | 55 | 🟠 C | +850 | ❄ COLD | 60 | 0.201 | 90.7 | 15.8% | 27.8% | 413 | 20.5% | 15.4% | 21.1% | 28 |
| 2 |
|
Wilyer Abreu | 45 | ⚪ D | · | · | 107 | 0.169 | 90.1 | 10.4% | 14.6% | 391 | 13.6% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 40 |
| 3 |
|
Jarren Duran | 38 | ⚪ D | · | · | 148 | 0.122 | 90.1 | 9.9% | 23.5% | 391 | 9.1% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 33 |
| 4 |
|
Ceddanne Rafaela | 36 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 162 | 0.149 | 86.7 | 7.8% | 20.0% | 364 | 9.3% | 15.4% | 14.5% | 27 |
| 5 |
|
Trevor Story | 34 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 182 | 0.100 | 88.9 | 3.6% | 17.6% | 412 | 7.5% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 14 |
| 6 |
|
Carlos Narváez | 26 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 216 | 0.111 | 91.2 | 7.8% | 11.8% | 386 | 7.7% | 0.0% | 7.4% | 12 |
| 7 |
|
Roman Anthony | 25 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 224 | 0.092 | 92.3 | 9.2% | 5.9% | 391 | 2.9% | 0.0% | 5.9% | 26 |
| 8 |
|
Marcelo Mayer | 25 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 226 | 0.081 | 87.1 | 7.9% | 4.5% | 382 | 3.3% | 9.1% | 5.6% | 28 |
| 9 |
|
Caleb Durbin | 9 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 261 | 0.076 | 84.7 | 0.8% | 9.1% | 386 | 2.3% | 0.0% | 7.1% | 21 |