BOS
@
1:35p
BAL
Park Factor
1.28×
Weather Mod
-2.0%
cold air · steady crosswind · roof open
Combined
1.024
Temp
47.0°F
Wind
8.1 mph
cross
Roof
open
Connelly Early
LHP
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Adley Rutschman | 77 | 🟡 B | · | 🌤️ WARM | 18 | 0.320 | 89.7 | 8.3% | 14.3% | 394 | 8.3% | 100.0% | 31.0% | 12 |
| 2 |
|
Gunnar Henderson | 75 | 🟡 B | · | · | 22 | 0.261 | 90.8 | 12.0% | 60.0% | 388 | 30.4% | 18.2% | 30.4% | 38 |
| 3 |
|
Samuel Basallo | 67 | 🔵 C+ | · | · | 40 | 0.189 | 92.2 | 11.8% | 28.6% | 415 | 18.2% | 22.2% | 27.1% | 28 |
| 4 |
|
Jeremiah Jackson | 63 | 🔵 C+ | · | · | 50 | 0.198 | 88.6 | 9.4% | 33.3% | 399 | 15.4% | 18.2% | 31.0% | 39 |
| 5 |
|
Pete Alonso | 48 | ⚪ D | · | · | 102 | 0.146 | 94.3 | 7.2% | 0.0% | 403 | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 36 |
| 6 |
|
Taylor Ward | 48 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 103 | 0.151 | 90.6 | 5.9% | 16.7% | 394 | 3.8% | 8.3% | 11.9% | 46 |
| 7 |
|
Dylan Beavers | 48 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 106 | 0.134 | 87.5 | 5.8% | 16.7% | 406 | 10.0% | 12.5% | 10.0% | 26 |
| 8 |
|
Tyler O'Neill | 36 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 176 | 0.091 | 86.8 | 4.3% | 11.1% | 391 | 9.1% | 0.0% | 11.9% | 3 |
| 9 |
|
Blaze Alexander | 18 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 261 | 0.017 | 92.0 | 2.8% | 0.0% | · | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.6% | 14 |
Kyle Bradish
RHP
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Willson Contreras | 69 | 🔵 C+ | · | · | 36 | 0.185 | 91.5 | 14.3% | 25.0% | 398 | 17.4% | 27.3% | 27.7% | 28 |
| 2 |
|
Andruw Monasterio | 61 | 🔵 C+ | · | 🌤️ WARM | 56 | 0.189 | 92.7 | 4.3% | 0.0% | · | 33.3% | 33.3% | 12.1% | 21 |
| 3 |
|
Wilyer Abreu | 58 | 🟠 C | · | 🌧️ COOL | 68 | 0.188 | 90.4 | 12.0% | 21.7% | 380 | 17.4% | 10.0% | 15.1% | 38 |
| 4 |
|
Roman Anthony | 47 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 108 | 0.100 | 92.7 | 10.9% | 7.7% | 391 | 5.0% | 0.0% | 8.5% | 23 |
| 5 |
|
Marcelo Mayer | 44 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 123 | 0.143 | 87.9 | 11.8% | 0.0% | 385 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.8% | 27 |
| 6 |
|
Jarren Duran | 43 | ⚪ D | · | · | 133 | 0.093 | 89.6 | 12.1% | 12.5% | 424 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.1% | 32 |
| 7 |
|
Caleb Durbin | 38 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 167 | 0.106 | 87.0 | 1.5% | 20.0% | · | 4.3% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 35 |
| 8 |
|
Connor Wong | 37 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 169 | 0.167 | 87.7 | 4.5% | 0.0% | · | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.7% | 17 |
| 9 |
|
Ceddanne Rafaela | 34 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 186 | 0.096 | 88.0 | 6.7% | 22.2% | 337 | 4.5% | 0.0% | 11.0% | 32 |