BOS
@
7:15p
ATL
Park Factor
1.04×
Weather Mod
+1.0%
hot air · light wind in · roof open
Combined
1.144
Temp
83.6°F
Wind
5.8 mph
in
Roof
open
Payton Tolle
LHP
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Matt Olson | 83 | 🟢 A | · | · | 8 | 0.344 | 93.3 | 18.3% | 17.4% | 413 | 28.6% | 27.3% | 27.3% | 30 |
| 2 |
|
Drake Baldwin | 79 | 🟡 B | · | 🌤️ WARM | 15 | 0.225 | 92.3 | 17.5% | 54.5% | 401 | 26.2% | 36.4% | 37.8% | 33 |
| 3 | Michael Harris II | 61 | 🔵 C+ | · | 🌧️ COOL | 44 | 0.193 | 94.7 | 16.7% | 33.3% | 394 | 17.5% | 9.1% | 15.3% | 29 | |
| 4 |
|
Austin Riley | 51 | 🟠 C | · | 🌤️ WARM | 76 | 0.154 | 90.9 | 10.0% | 27.3% | 405 | 9.5% | 18.2% | 18.5% | 29 |
| 5 |
|
Sandy León | 46 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 100 | 0.223 | 90.7 | 7.7% | 14.3% | 389 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 16.0% | 3 |
| 6 |
|
Ozzie Albies | 42 | ⚪ D | · | · | 124 | 0.193 | 86.5 | 3.9% | 17.6% | 386 | 16.7% | 9.1% | 11.9% | 38 |
| 7 |
|
Mauricio Dubón | 32 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 179 | 0.151 | 87.4 | 5.4% | 0.0% | 389 | 3.7% | 9.1% | 5.6% | 35 |
| 8 | José Azócar | 30 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 192 | 0.141 | 83.4 | 3.8% | 37.5% | 365 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 13.3% | 5 | |
| 9 |
|
Ha-Seong Kim | 23 | ⚪ D | · | · | 225 | 0.098 | 84.8 | · | 7.1% | · | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.7% | 11 |
Bryce Elder
RHP
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Willson Contreras | 58 | 🟠 C | · | 🌧️ COOL | 54 | 0.201 | 90.7 | 16.0% | 23.5% | 409 | 17.5% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 27 |
| 2 |
|
Wilyer Abreu | 52 | 🟠 C | · | · | 71 | 0.169 | 90.1 | 10.9% | 15.4% | 391 | 15.0% | 15.4% | 12.6% | 33 |
| 3 |
|
Ceddanne Rafaela | 42 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 125 | 0.149 | 86.9 | 8.5% | 20.0% | 364 | 10.3% | 23.1% | 10.4% | 32 |
| 4 |
|
Jarren Duran | 41 | ⚪ D | · | · | 128 | 0.122 | 89.6 | 9.0% | 23.5% | 397 | 7.5% | 15.4% | 10.2% | 35 |
| 5 |
|
Mickey Gasper | 39 | ⚪ D | · | · | 138 | 0.079 | 93.3 | 13.3% | 18.2% | · | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.0% | 15 |
| 6 |
|
Andruw Monasterio | 34 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 170 | 0.138 | 90.2 | 7.7% | 0.0% | 388 | 16.7% | 0.0% | 4.1% | 16 |
| 7 |
|
Marcelo Mayer | 28 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 204 | 0.081 | 87.4 | 7.6% | 5.0% | 382 | 3.7% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 26 |
| 8 |
|
Masataka Yoshida | 16 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 246 | 0.055 | 87.8 | · | 0.0% | · | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.2% | 24 |
| 9 |
|
Caleb Durbin | 12 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 253 | 0.076 | 84.9 | 0.9% | 9.1% | 386 | 2.5% | 0.0% | 4.5% | 27 |