BOS
@
7:15p
ATL
Park Factor
1.04×
Weather Mod
+0.0%
warm air · light wind out · roof open
Combined
1.040
Temp
73°F
Wind
4.6 mph
out
Roof
open
Connelly Early
LHP
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Matt Olson | 92 | 🔥 A+ | · | 🌤️ WARM | 3 | 0.344 | 93.5 | 18.4% | 18.2% | 413 | 29.3% | 36.4% | 35.1% | 32 |
| 2 |
|
Drake Baldwin | 79 | 🟡 B | · | 🌤️ WARM | 13 | 0.225 | 92.0 | 15.7% | 55.6% | 400 | 24.4% | 27.3% | 48.3% | 32 |
| 3 | Michael Harris II | 63 | 🔵 C+ | · | 🌧️ COOL | 39 | 0.193 | 94.6 | 16.2% | 16.7% | 390 | 15.4% | 9.1% | 15.6% | 27 | |
| 4 |
|
Austin Riley | 59 | 🟠 C | · | 🔥 HOT | 58 | 0.154 | 90.7 | 10.2% | 27.3% | 405 | 9.8% | 18.2% | 19.2% | 30 |
| 5 |
|
Sandy León | 49 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 95 | 0.223 | 90.8 | 7.1% | 14.3% | 387 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 16.6% | 2 |
| 6 |
|
Ozzie Albies | 46 | ⚪ D | · | · | 110 | 0.193 | 86.4 | 4.0% | 18.8% | 386 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 12.6% | 39 |
| 7 |
|
Mauricio Dubón | 36 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 171 | 0.151 | 87.5 | 5.6% | 0.0% | 389 | 3.8% | 9.1% | 5.8% | 37 |
| 8 | José Azócar | 34 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 180 | 0.141 | 83.4 | 3.8% | 37.5% | 365 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 13.9% | 3 | |
| 9 |
|
Ha-Seong Kim | 30 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 200 | 0.098 | 85.6 | 4.7% | 7.1% | 372 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.7% | 7 |
Spencer Strider
RHP
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Willson Contreras | 62 | 🔵 C+ | +950 | 🌧️ COOL | 43 | 0.201 | 91.0 | 16.3% | 25.0% | 409 | 17.9% | 7.7% | 14.8% | 26 |
| 2 |
|
Wilyer Abreu | 54 | 🟠 C | · | · | 72 | 0.169 | 90.2 | 11.1% | 15.8% | 391 | 15.4% | 15.4% | 13.6% | 34 |
| 3 |
|
Mickey Gasper | 50 | 🟠 C | · | · | 89 | 0.079 | 94.1 | 20.0% | 12.5% | · | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.3% | 10 |
| 4 |
|
Jarren Duran | 46 | ⚪ D | · | · | 109 | 0.122 | 89.5 | 9.2% | 23.5% | 397 | 7.7% | 23.1% | 16.1% | 37 |
| 5 |
|
Ceddanne Rafaela | 45 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 115 | 0.149 | 86.8 | 8.7% | 21.1% | 364 | 10.5% | 23.1% | 17.4% | 32 |
| 6 |
|
Carlos Narváez | 36 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 173 | 0.111 | 91.5 | 8.3% | 11.8% | 386 | 9.1% | 0.0% | 7.8% | 14 |
| 7 |
|
Andruw Monasterio | 35 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 178 | 0.138 | 90.8 | 6.1% | 0.0% | 388 | 20.0% | 0.0% | 6.8% | 13 |
| 8 |
|
Marcelo Mayer | 26 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 219 | 0.081 | 87.3 | 6.7% | 0.0% | 385 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.2% | 27 |
| 9 |
|
Caleb Durbin | 15 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 245 | 0.076 | 85.0 | 0.9% | 9.1% | 386 | 2.6% | 0.0% | 7.4% | 29 |