AZ
@
1:40p
CIN
Stadium Conditions
Great American Ball Park
First pitch 1:40p
· roof open
Park 1.13×
Wind 5 mph out
79°F
open
-2
7 mph · in
78°F
1:40p
Neutral for HR environment
-2
7 mph · in
78°F
2:40p
Neutral for HR environment
-2
7 mph · in
78°F
3:40p
Neutral for HR environment
-2
7 mph · in
78°F
4:40p
Neutral for HR environment
-2
7 mph · in
78°F
5:40p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Boost · Combined 1.25
79°F, wind 5 mph SE (out) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.
8 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Corbin Carroll | 75 | 🟡 B | · | 🌤️ WARM | 10 | 0.256 | 91.9 | 9.5% | 11.1% vs LHP | 409 | 18.4% | 38.5% | 27.9% | 40 |
| 2 |
|
Gabriel Moreno | 61 | 🔵 C+ | · | 🌧️ COOL | 41 | 0.205 | 89.5 | 8.5% | 22.2% vs LHP | 403 | 11.5% | 16.7% | 20.4% | 32 |
| 3 |
|
Ketel Marte | 59 | 🟠 C | · | · | 48 | 0.192 | 90.8 | 8.5% | 30.8% vs LHP | 416 | 11.8% | 16.7% | 16.5% | 42 |
| 4 |
|
Nolan Arenado ⚡ | 52 | 🟠 C | · | · | 76 | 0.178 | 85.4 | 6.7% | 25.0% vs LHP | 400 | 11.3% | 7.7% | 14.4% | 31 |
| 5 |
|
Ildemaro Vargas | 47 | ⚪ D | · | · | 98 | 0.168 | 86.7 | 5.2% | 35.7% vs LHP | 399 | 8.3% | 0.0% | 15.1% | 24 |
| 6 |
|
Jordan Lawlar | 44 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 124 | 0.138 | 89.9 | 6.8% | 12.5% | 424 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 12.0% | 3 |
| 7 |
|
Tommy Troy | 38 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 160 | 0.098 | 85.0 | 7.0% | 7.7% | 392 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.5% | 27 |
| 8 |
|
Geraldo Perdomo | 36 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 174 | 0.102 | 87.4 | 4.4% | 7.1% vs LHP | 372 | 3.7% | 0.0% | 8.4% | 40 |
8 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Nathaniel Lowe | 72 | 🟡 B | · | ❄ COLD | 17 | 0.237 | 89.0 | 11.4% | 32.1% vs RHP | 398 | 18.9% | 0.0% | 19.7% | 21 |
| 2 |
|
Jj Bleday | 70 | 🟡 B | · | ❄ COLD | 19 | 0.294 | 90.0 | 11.2% | 34.6% vs RHP | 387 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 22.2% | 38 |
| 3 |
|
Sal Stewart | 65 | 🔵 C+ | · | · | 26 | 0.200 | 90.7 | 12.3% | 19.1% vs RHP | 394 | 9.3% | 8.3% | 17.1% | 31 |
| 4 |
|
Matt Mclain | 54 | 🟠 C | · | 🔥 HOT | 64 | 0.163 | 88.5 | 10.3% | 10.9% vs RHP | 398 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 21.0% | 23 |
| 5 |
|
Noelvi Marte | 54 | 🟠 C | · | 🔥 HOT | 65 | 0.117 | 88.5 | 7.5% | 20.0% | 420 | 10.0% | 40.0% | 19.2% | 18 |
| 6 |
|
Eugenio Suarez | 47 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 97 | 0.131 | 86.6 | 8.4% | 20.0% vs RHP | 388 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 16.4% | 28 |
| 7 |
|
Blake Dunn | 45 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 119 | 0.116 | 88.5 | 6.3% | 14.3% vs RHP | 381 | 5.0% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 33 |
| 8 |
|
Jose Trevino | 39 | ⚪ D | · | · | 157 | 0.105 | 84.7 | 5.6% | 16.7% vs RHP | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 12.1% | 0 |