ATL
@
7:10p
SD
Stadium Conditions
Petco Park
First pitch 7:10p
· roof open
Park 0.92×
Wind 10 mph in
74°F
open
-13
11 mph · in
75°F
7:10p
Suppress for HR environment
-13
11 mph · in
75°F
8:10p
Suppress for HR environment
-13
11 mph · in
75°F
9:10p
Suppress for HR environment
-13
11 mph · in
75°F
10:10p
Suppress for HR environment
-13
11 mph · in
75°F
11:10p
Suppress for HR environment
⚪ Suppress · Combined 0.64
74°F, wind 10 mph NW (in) — modifier: -3. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.
7 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Matt Olson | 68 | 🔵 C+ | +330 | 🌧️ COOL | 17 | 0.282 | 93.1 | 11.7% | 31.8% vs RHP | 409 | 22.4% | 15.4% | 28.9% | 29 |
| 2 |
|
Drake Baldwin | 62 | 🔵 C+ | +350 | ❄ COLD | 31 | 0.232 | 92.2 | 13.3% | 29.2% vs RHP | 407 | 21.8% | 0.0% | 26.7% | 11 |
| 3 |
|
Austin Riley | 44 | ⚪ D | +500 | · | 121 | 0.163 | 91.0 | 10.0% | 14.3% vs RHP | 409 | 8.0% | 0.0% | 9.6% | 22 |
| 4 |
|
Ozzie Albies | 41 | ⚪ D | +575 | · | 140 | 0.167 | 87.2 | 6.5% | 11.8% vs RHP | 383 | 13.2% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 39 |
| 5 |
|
Mike Yastrzemski | 39 | ⚪ D | +625 | 🌧️ COOL | 154 | 0.149 | 90.7 | 6.0% | 16.2% vs RHP | 374 | 8.5% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 15 |
| 6 |
|
Dominic Smith | 39 | ⚪ D | +625 | 🌧️ COOL | 155 | 0.147 | 88.5 | 8.7% | 14.6% vs RHP | 390 | 8.5% | 0.0% | 8.5% | 24 |
| 7 |
|
Mauricio Dubon | 34 | ⚪ D | +950 | 🌧️ COOL | 177 | 0.140 | 86.3 | 7.6% | 14.7% vs RHP | 393 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.3% | 37 |
6 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Ty France | 59 | 🟠 C | +575 | 🌧️ COOL | 41 | 0.211 | 91.0 | 10.6% | 35.0% vs RHP | 393 | 14.3% | 12.5% | 28.2% | 19 |
| 2 |
|
Gavin Sheets | 58 | 🟠 C | +475 | · | 48 | 0.230 | 89.1 | 9.0% | 34.2% vs RHP | 394 | 13.6% | 18.2% | 22.6% | 31 |
| 3 |
|
Manny Machado | 53 | 🟠 C | +400 | · | 73 | 0.185 | 89.9 | 9.3% | 25.7% vs RHP | 397 | 17.1% | 16.7% | 13.9% | 39 |
| 4 |
|
Jackson Merrill | 47 | ⚪ D | +425 | · | 101 | 0.141 | 90.1 | 9.8% | 13.0% vs RHP | 407 | 11.6% | 16.7% | 8.4% | 44 |
| 5 |
|
Miguel Andujar | 38 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 157 | 0.157 | 88.0 | 6.6% | 16.7% vs RHP | 394 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 12.8% | 2 |
| 6 |
|
Xander Bogaerts ⚡ | 37 | ⚪ D | +700 | 🌧️ COOL | 163 | 0.113 | 88.0 | 7.8% | 20.0% vs RHP | 395 | 10.3% | 0.0% | 8.9% | 25 |