2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Ceddanne Rafaela 7 HRs · 2 Matt Olson 6 HRs · 3 Jeremy Peña 5 HRs · 4 Sal Stewart 5 HRs · 5 Jackson Merrill 4 HRs · 6 Ozzie Albies 4 HRs · 7 Mickey Moniak 4 HRs · 8 Kyle Stowers 4 HRs · 9 Kyle Manzardo 4 HRs · 10 Bryce Harper 3 HRs · 11 Ben Rice 3 HRs · 12 Dillon Dingler 3 HRs 1 Ceddanne Rafaela 7 HRs · 2 Matt Olson 6 HRs · 3 Jeremy Peña 5 HRs · 4 Sal Stewart 5 HRs · 5 Jackson Merrill 4 HRs · 6 Ozzie Albies 4 HRs · 7 Mickey Moniak 4 HRs · 8 Kyle Stowers 4 HRs · 9 Kyle Manzardo 4 HRs · 10 Bryce Harper 3 HRs · 11 Ben Rice 3 HRs · 12 Dillon Dingler 3 HRs

Dinger Tuesday Picks — June 16, 2026

The graded receipt for 2026-06-16: what the model ranked, what actually happened. Not gambling advice.

The record, in public

15.3%
Top-50 pick hit rate
1.4×
Vs 10.6% field rate
2,975
HRs graded live
128
Slates on the record
2026-03-26 through 2026-08-04. See the full track record →

Home runs, graded · June 16, 2026

29
HRs by scored batters
0/5
Top-5 picks that homered
2/15
Top-15 picks that homered
53.3 vs 45.7
Avg score: HR vs miss
RankBatterVs pitcherModel scoreTier
#8 Shohei Ohtani Drew Rasmussen 74 B AboveAvg
#10 Mike Trout Merrill Kelly 73 B AboveAvg
#17 Kyle Schwarber Tyler Phillips 70 B AboveAvg
#20 Pete Crow-Armstrong Ryan Feltner 68 C+ Value
#29 Brandon Lowe Jack Perkins 65 C+ Value
#30 Zach Neto Merrill Kelly 65 C+ Value
#31 Sal Stewart Kodai Senga 65 C+ Value
#35 Ben Rice Davis Martin 63 C+ Value
#36 Spencer Steer Kodai Senga 63 C+ Value
#39 Esteury Ruiz Jesús Luzardo 61 C+ Value
#40 Kody Clemens Kumar Rocker 61 C+ Value
#50 Spencer Jones Davis Martin 59 C BelowAvg
#58 Zack Gelof Mitch Keller 57 C BelowAvg
#60 Andrew Benintendi Gerrit Cole 57 C BelowAvg
#63 Paul Goldschmidt Davis Martin 55 C BelowAvg
#69 Curtis Mead Michael Wacha 54 C BelowAvg
#82 Bryan Reynolds Jack Perkins 53 C BelowAvg
#86 Garrett Mitchell Slade Cecconi 52 C BelowAvg
#89 Brice Turang Slade Cecconi 51 C BelowAvg
#98 TJ Rumfield Edward Cabrera 49 D Below
#106 Brandon Marsh Tyler Phillips 48 D Below
#114 Alec Bohm Tyler Phillips 47 D Below
#155 Jarren Duran Dylan Cease 39 D Below
#159 Lane Thomas Foster Griffin 38 D Below
#169 José Caballero Davis Martin 36 D Below
#170 George Springer Payton Tolle 36 D Below
#190 Trevor Larnach Kumar Rocker 32 D Below
#191 Davis Schneider Payton Tolle 32 D Below
#213 Andrés Giménez Payton Tolle 23 D Below

Outside the top 50

Zack Gelof, Andrew Benintendi, Paul Goldschmidt, Curtis Mead, Bryan Reynolds, Garrett Mitchell, Brice Turang, TJ Rumfield, Brandon Marsh, Alec Bohm, Jarren Duran, Lane Thomas, José Caballero, George Springer, Trevor Larnach, Davis Schneider, Andrés Giménez

How we approach a home run promo

A recurring home run promotion turns one day a week into a single-question day: which bat do you put the credit on? TheHomeRuns.org answers it the same way every other day — every MLB batter is scored on 30+ signals (barrel-rate matchup, the opposing starter's home-run rate, park factor, weather, recent form) and the board is ranked by home run probability. The model score you see on each pick is that composite, 0–100.

Two things we do not do. We do not publish promo terms — amounts, boosts, eligibility and availability are the sportsbook's, they change without notice, and we have no way to verify them, so check the book's own promotions page. And we do not hide bad days: every board is graded the next morning against real results, misses included, on the track record and in the dated archive. The whole reason this page is worth reading on a promo morning is that you can check what it said the last time.

Questions

What is Dinger Tuesday?

Dinger Tuesday is the name used for a recurring sportsbook promotion on home run props — books such as FanDuel have run recurring home run promos. The terms, eligibility and availability are set by the sportsbook and change without notice, so TheHomeRuns.org does not publish them: check the book's own promotions page for what is live today. We are not affiliated with, endorsed by or sponsored by any sportsbook. What we publish is the model's ranked home run board for the day, and the graded result of every past board.

Who should I pick today?

This page is the graded record for June 16, 2026, not a live board. Today's ranked picks are at https://thehomeruns.org/dinger-tuesday-picks. Every board on this site is graded in public the next morning, hits and misses. Not gambling advice.

How accurate are these home run picks?

Across 128 graded slates this season, 15.3% of our top-50 picks homered against a 10.6% league field rate — about 1.4x the field. Every board is graded in public the next morning, hits and misses, and the dated archive on this site stays up.

Graded promo-day archive

Not gambling advice. TheHomeRuns.org publishes model output and its graded record; nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager. We are not affiliated with, endorsed by or sponsored by FanDuel or any sportsbook, and we do not state any promotion's terms, credit amounts, odds or eligibility — check the sportsbook's own promotions page. 21+ where legal. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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