Trevor Story
BOS
· 42 appearances tracked
3
HRs
7.1%
HR Rate
12.2%
Avg HR/FB
88.9
Avg EV
0.127
ISO
#14
Best Rank
HR Profile
Season-to-date · live-tape thresholds
ISO0.097
Avg EV88.9
Barrel%5.3%
HR/FB vs RHP17.6%
Avg HR Dist412
Match%11.5%
Season HR%
7.1%
14D Pace
0.0%
Pitch Analysis
season · as of 2026-08-30
Pitch
Seen
Barrel%
HR
K%
Fastball
55.7%
2
Breaking
32.7%
1
Offspeed
11.6%
0
All
100%
3.7%
3
32.6%
Barrel vs. Whiff
BRL
K
Fastball
Breaking
Offspeed
Barrel & whiff rates by pitch family.
Batter vs. Pitcher
vs Will Warren · RHP · BOS
SMALL SAMPLE · 10 PA · since 2024
.500
AVG
1.200
SLG
2
HR
5-for-10 with 2 homers across 10 plate appearances since 2024. Thin sample — lean on the season profile.
Modifiers
2 of 4 active
Yankee Stadium +HR
Pitcher form Steady
Platoon —
Weather +2
Edge by rate
· batter ●
vs pitcher-allowed ●
Barrel%
5.3
vs
—
HR/FB
17.6
vs
17.7 ▼ risk
K%
32.6
vs
—
Batter rates are season-to-date; pitcher-allowed shown where tracked. HR/FB compared head-to-head.
HR Days
recent home runs
No home runs captured on a scored slate yet.
All Appearances
42 tracked · 3 HR · 3 top‑50
Date
Opp · Pitcher
BIP
Max EV
Result
HR
May 22
vs MIN · Connor Prielipp
0
—
—
May 20
@ KC · Michael Wacha
0
—
—
May 18
@ KC · Seth Lugo
0
—
—
May 14
vs PHI · Jesús Luzardo
2
75.4
2 BIP
May 13
vs PHI · Andrew Painter
3
106.6
HR
3 BIP
May 12
vs PHI · Zack Wheeler
3
101.4
3 BIP
May 10
vs TB · Nick Martinez
1
100.1
1 BIP
May 9
vs TB · Nick Martinez
0
—
—
May 8
vs TB · Jesse Scholtens
1
77.0
1 BIP
May 7
vs TB · Griffin Jax
2
97.3
2 BIP
May 6
@ DET · Jack Flaherty
2
102.0
2 BIP
May 5
@ DET · Framber Valdez
3
100.3
3 BIP
May 4
@ DET · Tarik Skubal
2
98.9
2 BIP
May 3
vs HOU · Cody Bolton
0
—
—
May 2
vs HOU · Spencer Arrighetti
3
80.3
3 BIP
May 1
vs HOU · Mike Burrows
4
103.4
4 BIP
Apr 29
@ TOR · Eric Lauer
3
102.8
3 BIP
Apr 27
@ TOR · Dylan Cease
3
93.5
3 BIP
Apr 25
@ BAL · Trevor Rogers
4
97.3
4 BIP
Apr 24
@ BAL · Brandon Young
3
104.6
3 BIP
Apr 23
vs NYY · Cam Schlittler
3
95.8
3 BIP
Apr 22
vs NYY · Max Fried
2
92.6
2 BIP
Apr 21
vs NYY · Luis Gil
3
101.8
3 BIP
Apr 20
vs DET · Jack Flaherty
2
104.6
2 BIP
Apr 19
vs DET · Framber Valdez
1
102.2
1 BIP
Apr 18
vs DET · Tarik Skubal
1
67.4
1 BIP
Apr 17
vs DET · Casey Mize
2
104.0
2 BIP
Apr 15
@ MIN · Simeon Woods Richardson
4
101.8
HR
4 BIP
Apr 12
@ STL · Andre Pallante
5
103.0
5 BIP
Apr 11
@ STL · Kyle Leahy
3
96.4
3 BIP
Apr 10
@ STL · Dustin May
3
104.2
3 BIP
Apr 8
vs MIL · Shane Drohan
3
95.2
3 BIP
Apr 7
vs MIL · Jacob Misiorowski
3
102.2
3 BIP
Apr 6
vs MIL · Brandon Woodruff
5
98.7
5 BIP
Apr 5
vs SD · Walker Buehler
3
87.8
3 BIP
Apr 4
vs SD · Randy Vásquez
3
101.7
3 BIP
Apr 1
@ HOU · Mike Burrows
2
99.3
2 BIP
Mar 31
@ HOU · Hunter Brown
3
96.1
3 BIP
Mar 30
@ HOU · Lance McCullers Jr.
2
96.5
2 BIP
Mar 29
@ CIN · Rhett Lowder
3
106.5
3 BIP
Mar 28
@ CIN · Brady Singer
2
109.6
HR
2 BIP
Mar 26
@ CIN · Andrew Abbott
4
108.1
4 BIP
Ballpark
Yankee Stadium · open-air
Park Factor
1.063
Wind
7 mph from NW
Temp
78°F
Roof
Open
TimeWindTempFIT
1:35p
7 ↗
78°
+6
2:35p
7 ↗
78°
+6
3:35p
7 ↗
78°
+6
4:35p
7 ↗
78°
+6
5:35p
7 ↗
78°
+6
+6
Slight green alignment
proxy spray · live hourly FIT · open-air wind signal
HIT LOCATIONS'25–'26
Game-window avg wind · blowing out to pull (from NW)
TONIGHT
board — not posted yet
next game Sun 8/30
Dueness now
0.17×
not yet due — gap ÷ cadence
Cadence
23 gm
median between HRs, game-days
Current gap
4 gm
since his last HR, May 13
Season
3 HR
42 games · 0 HR last 14d
Rhythm tightness
his gaps between HRs, in game-days — tight columns = metronome, spread = streaky
one dot per gap · 2 gaps · median 23 gm · MAD ± 5.0 gm · now marker = current gap
SunMonTueWedThuFriSat
Rhythm observation, not a prediction — the “g+n” counters and crossing marks only read his own history. See tonight’s board for the model’s actual ranking. Model picks · For entertainment.
Score Breakdown
Base 38 → 38
ISO (Power)
Barrel Matchup
Park Factor
Pitcher FIP
season hr rate
HR/FB Matchup
Exit Velocity
recent hr density 14d
Common questions about Trevor Story
Will Trevor Story hit a home run today?
Trevor Story is on today's TheHomeRuns slate, ranked #153 among tonight's scored batters for home run likelihood, facing Will Warren at Yankee Stadium. That's a model ranking, not a prediction of a certain outcome — even the model's top-ranked bats homer in roughly one of five games. Not gambling advice.
How often does Trevor Story hit home runs?
Across 42 scored games this season, Trevor Story has 3 home runs — one every 14.0 games, or about 7% of his scored games.
Has Trevor Story homered off Will Warren before?
Yes — Trevor Story has taken Will Warren deep 2 times in 10 career plate appearances against him.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.