Jonathan Aranda
TB
· 146 appearances tracked
19
HRs
13.0%
HR Rate
16.9%
Avg HR/FB
90.9
Avg EV
0.177
ISO
#8
Best Rank
HR Profile
Season-to-date · live-tape thresholds
ISO0.160
Avg EV91.1
Barrel%8.5%
HR/FB vs RHP18.4%
Avg HR Dist390
Match%15.5%
Season HR%
12.8%
14D Pace
0.0%
Pitch Analysis
season · as of 2026-10-17
Pitch
Seen
Barrel%
HR
K%
Fastball
61.9%
9
Breaking
23.1%
10
Offspeed
15.0%
3
All
100%
10.0%
22
24.2%
Barrel vs. Whiff
BRL
K
Fastball
Breaking
Offspeed
Barrel & whiff rates by pitch family.
K% shown per family; true swing-whiff pending.
Batter vs. Pitcher
vs Shawn Armstrong · RHP · TB
SMALL SAMPLE · 3 PA · since 2026
—
AVG
—
SLG
0
HR
0-for-0 and 3 walks across 3 plate appearances since 2026. Thin sample — lean on the season profile.
Modifiers
1 of 4 active
Progressive Neutral
Pitcher form Cold
Platoon —
Weather -1
Edge by rate
· batter ●
vs pitcher-allowed ●
Barrel%
8.5
vs
—
HR/FB
18.4
vs
11.1 ▲ edge
K%
24.2
vs
—
Batter rates are season-to-date; pitcher-allowed shown where tracked. HR/FB compared head-to-head.
HR Days
19 this season · avg 384 ft
Date
Opp · Pitcher
Pitch
EV
Dist
Apr 27
Parker Messick · Progressive Field
—
103.6
373.0
May 25
@ BAL · Kyle Bradish
—
105.6
371.0
May 31
vs LAA · Jack Kochanowicz
—
109.2
409
HR by month
Apr
May
All Appearances
146 tracked · 19 HR · 32 top‑50
Date
Opp · Pitcher
BIP
Max EV
Result
HR
Sep 27
@ PHI · Zack Wheeler
1
107.5
1 BIP
Sep 26
@ PHI · Aaron Nola
2
97.6
2 BIP
Sep 25
@ PHI · Cristopher Sánchez
1
88.3
1 BIP
Sep 23
@ NYY · Gerrit Cole
2
98.4
2 BIP
Sep 22
@ NYY · Carlos Rodón
2
102.5
2 BIP
Sep 19
vs BOS · Brayan Bello
2
98.7
HR
2 BIP
Sep 18
vs BOS · Ranger Suarez
5
98.1
5 BIP
Sep 17
vs ATH · Jeffrey Springs
2
102.9
2 BIP
Sep 15
vs ATH · Jack Perkins
2
83.7
2 BIP
Sep 13
vs HOU · Hayden Wesneski
2
103.0
HR
2 BIP
Sep 12
vs HOU · Peter Lambert
3
102.6
3 BIP
Sep 11
vs HOU · Miguel Ullola
3
96.7
3 BIP
Sep 9
@ ATL · Reynaldo López
2
90.6
2 BIP
Sep 8
@ ATL · AJ Smith-Shawver
3
94.7
3 BIP
Sep 6
@ TEX · MacKenzie Gore
5
98.3
5 BIP
Sep 5
@ TEX · Jacob deGrom
3
103.7
HR
3 BIP
Sep 4
@ TEX · Trevor Williams
2
103.6
HR
2 BIP
Sep 3
@ TEX · Cal Quantrill
0
—
—
Sep 2
vs NYM · NYM Bullpen Proxy
3
101.1
3 BIP
Aug 31
vs NYM · Robert Stock
3
99.4
3 BIP
Aug 30
vs SD · Robbie Ray
4
98.0
4 BIP
Aug 29
vs SD · Walker Buehler
4
110.0
HR
4 BIP
Aug 28
vs SD · Casey Mize
3
105.7
3 BIP
Aug 26
@ DET · Troy Melton
3
101.1
3 BIP
Aug 25
@ DET · Jackson Jobe
2
95.4
2 BIP
Aug 24
@ DET · Framber Valdez
4
99.1
HR
4 BIP
Aug 23
@ BAL · Shane Baz
3
95.3
3 BIP
Aug 22
@ BAL · Brandon Young
2
92.1
2 BIP
Aug 20
vs TOR · Shane Bieber
2
101.2
2 BIP
Aug 19
vs TOR · Max Scherzer
3
88.5
3 BIP
Aug 18
vs TOR · José Soriano
3
109.7
3 BIP
Aug 17
vs BAL · Brandon Young
4
99.4
4 BIP
Aug 16
vs BAL · Trevor Rogers
1
99.2
1 BIP
Aug 15
vs BAL · Kyle Bradish
5
99.3
5 BIP
Aug 14
vs BAL · Chris Bassitt
4
110.9
4 BIP
Aug 12
@ ATH · Jack Perkins
2
98.3
2 BIP
Aug 11
@ ATH · Mason Barnett
4
100.6
4 BIP
Aug 10
@ ATH · Jacob Lopez
3
106.4
3 BIP
Aug 9
@ SEA · Emerson Hancock
4
96.0
4 BIP
Aug 8
@ SEA · George Kirby
3
88.8
3 BIP
Aug 7
@ SEA · Logan Gilbert
3
107.0
HR
3 BIP
Aug 5
@ COL · Tomoyuki Sugano
3
95.8
3 BIP
Aug 4
@ COL · Gabriel Hughes
4
98.0
4 BIP
Aug 3
@ COL · Michael Lorenzen
5
103.9
5 BIP
Aug 2
vs CWS · Anthony Kay
4
99.4
4 BIP
Jul 31
vs CWS · Erick Fedde
4
105.9
4 BIP
Jul 30
vs TEX · Cole Winn
3
104.5
3 BIP
Jul 29
vs TEX · MacKenzie Gore
2
101.5
2 BIP
Jul 28
vs TEX · Cal Quantrill
3
107.9
3 BIP
Jul 25
vs CLE · Tanner Bibee
2
104.2
2 BIP
Jul 24
vs CLE · Joey Cantillo
2
102.3
2 BIP
Jul 23
@ TOR · Shane Bieber
3
103.9
3 BIP
Jul 22
@ TOR · Braydon Fisher
1
98.8
1 BIP
Jul 21
@ TOR · Kevin Gausman
4
89.1
4 BIP
Jul 20
@ TOR · Dylan Cease
4
106.7
4 BIP
Jul 19
@ BOS · Sonny Gray
2
101.7
2 BIP
Jul 17
@ BOS · Jake Bennett
4
108.2
4 BIP
Jul 12
vs SEA · Emerson Hancock
3
100.5
HR
3 BIP
Jul 11
vs SEA · Logan Gilbert
3
106.6
3 BIP
Jul 10
vs SEA · Luis Castillo
5
101.2
5 BIP
Jul 9
vs NYY · Paul Blackburn
4
101.9
4 BIP
Jul 8
vs NYY · Gerrit Cole
3
102.4
3 BIP
Jul 7
vs NYY · Will Warren
3
88.0
3 BIP
Jul 6
vs NYY · Cam Schlittler
1
99.3
1 BIP
Jul 5
@ HOU · Peter Lambert
4
100.1
4 BIP
Jul 4
@ HOU · Hunter Brown
1
101.7
1 BIP
Jul 3
@ HOU · Spencer Arrighetti
3
94.5
3 BIP
Jul 2
@ KC · Stephen Kolek
5
103.8
5 BIP
Jul 1
@ KC · Seth Lugo
3
104.7
3 BIP
Jun 30
@ KC · Noah Cameron
3
96.4
3 BIP
Jun 28
vs AZ · Merrill Kelly
3
102.5
3 BIP
Jun 27
vs AZ · AZ Bullpen Proxy
2
101.7
HR
2 BIP
Jun 26
vs AZ · Zac Gallen
3
104.0
3 BIP
Jun 25
vs KC · Seth Lugo
5
108.0
5 BIP
Jun 24
vs KC · Noah Cameron
3
101.1
3 BIP
Jun 23
vs KC · Luinder Avila
3
105.7
3 BIP
Jun 22
vs KC · Michael Wacha
2
87.9
2 BIP
Jun 21
vs WSH · Andrew Alvarez
3
97.3
3 BIP
Jun 20
vs WSH · Cade Cavalli
4
105.0
4 BIP
Jun 19
vs WSH · PJ Poulin
3
95.2
HR
3 BIP
Jun 17
@ LAD · Shohei Ohtani
4
106.8
4 BIP
Jun 16
@ LAD · Justin Wrobleski
2
89.0
2 BIP
Jun 15
@ LAD · Eric Lauer
2
98.7
2 BIP
Jun 14
@ LAA · Grayson Rodriguez
4
108.7
4 BIP
Jun 13
@ LAA · José Soriano
3
98.3
3 BIP
Jun 12
@ LAA · Sam Aldegheri
5
102.8
5 BIP
Jun 10
vs BOS · Jake Bennett
3
105.9
3 BIP
Jun 8
vs BOS · Connelly Early
3
97.4
3 BIP
Jun 7
@ MIA · Sandy Alcantara
2
97.6
2 BIP
Jun 6
@ MIA · Lake Bachar
1
74.9
1 BIP
Jun 5
@ MIA · MIA Bullpen Proxy
3
94.4
3 BIP
Jun 3
vs DET · Troy Melton
2
85.4
2 BIP
Jun 2
vs DET · Jack Flaherty
2
103.7
2 BIP
Jun 1
vs DET · Ty Madden
2
89.1
2 BIP
May 31
vs LAA · Jack Kochanowicz
3
109.2
HR
3 BIP
May 30
vs LAA · Reid Detmers
3
107.2
3 BIP
May 29
vs LAA · Walbert Ureña
2
108.2
HR
2 BIP
May 27
@ BAL · Trey Gibson
2
111.4
2 BIP
May 26
@ BAL · Shane Baz
3
106.6
3 BIP
May 25
@ BAL · Kyle Bradish
4
106.0
HR
4 BIP
May 24
@ NYY · Ryan Weathers
2
103.3
2 BIP
May 22
@ NYY · Gerrit Cole
3
106.5
3 BIP
May 20
vs BAL · Shane Baz
2
102.8
2 BIP
May 19
vs BAL · Kyle Bradish
2
101.0
2 BIP
May 18
vs BAL · Trevor Rogers
5
99.4
5 BIP
May 17
vs MIA · Eury Pérez
3
97.9
3 BIP
May 16
vs MIA · Sandy Alcantara
3
104.2
3 BIP
May 15
vs MIA · Janson Junk
1
101.1
1 BIP
May 13
@ TOR · Dylan Cease
2
86.2
2 BIP
May 12
@ TOR · Patrick Corbin
4
102.4
4 BIP
May 11
@ TOR · Kevin Gausman
3
104.8
HR
3 BIP
May 10
@ BOS · Payton Tolle
2
107.5
2 BIP
May 9
@ BOS · Payton Tolle
0
—
—
May 8
@ BOS · Connelly Early
1
99.3
1 BIP
May 7
@ BOS · Jake Bennett
4
87.4
4 BIP
May 6
vs TOR · Patrick Corbin
1
102.6
1 BIP
May 5
vs TOR · Kevin Gausman
4
101.6
4 BIP
May 3
vs SF · Tyler Mahle
5
98.7
5 BIP
May 2
vs SF · Landen Roupp
2
105.9
2 BIP
May 1
vs SF · Robbie Ray
1
65.3
1 BIP
Apr 29
@ CLE · Gavin Williams
1
68.7
1 BIP
Apr 28
@ CLE · Tanner Bibee
3
102.8
3 BIP
Apr 27
@ CLE · Parker Messick
3
103.6
HR
3 BIP
Apr 26
vs MIN · Simeon Woods Richardson
3
92.2
3 BIP
Apr 25
vs MIN · Bailey Ober
3
94.6
3 BIP
Apr 24
vs MIN · Taj Bradley
3
105.8
HR
3 BIP
Apr 22
vs CIN · Brandon Williamson
0
—
—
Apr 21
vs CIN · Chase Burns
2
103.8
HR
2 BIP
Apr 20
vs CIN · Rhett Lowder
2
77.5
2 BIP
Apr 19
@ PIT · Mitch Keller
3
96.0
3 BIP
Apr 18
@ PIT · Paul Skenes
3
99.2
3 BIP
Apr 17
@ PIT · Bubba Chandler
1
91.9
1 BIP
Apr 15
@ CWS · Sean Burke
3
96.8
3 BIP
Apr 12
vs NYY · Cam Schlittler
1
85.7
1 BIP
Apr 11
vs NYY · Max Fried
4
101.7
4 BIP
Apr 10
vs NYY · Luis Gil
3
106.7
3 BIP
Apr 8
vs CHC · Colin Rea
4
92.3
4 BIP
Apr 7
vs CHC · Javier Assad
4
105.9
4 BIP
Apr 6
vs CHC · Jameson Taillon
3
103.5
HR
3 BIP
Apr 5
@ MIN · Simeon Woods Richardson
4
101.7
4 BIP
Apr 4
@ MIN · Mick Abel
2
102.0
2 BIP
Apr 1
@ MIL · Jacob Misiorowski
3
101.7
3 BIP
Mar 31
@ MIL · Brandon Woodruff
3
102.8
HR
3 BIP
Mar 30
@ MIL · Kyle Harrison
2
86.7
2 BIP
Mar 29
@ STL · Dustin May
5
105.2
5 BIP
Mar 28
@ STL · Michael McGreevy
2
107.0
2 BIP
Ballpark
Progressive Field · open-air
Park Factor
0.950
Wind
9 mph from W
Temp
50°F
Roof
Open
TimeWindTempFIT
8:00p
9 ↗
50°
-3
9:00p
9 ↗
50°
-1
10:00p
10 ↗
49°
+2
11:00p
10 ↗
49°
+4
12:00a
10 ↗
48°
+4
+1
Neutral alignment
true spray · live hourly FIT · open-air wind signal
HIT LOCATIONS'25–'26
Game-window avg wind · blowing out to pull (from WSW)
TONIGHT
board — not posted yet
next game —
Dueness now
0.83×
not yet due — gap ÷ cadence
Cadence
6 gm
median between HRs, game-days
Current gap
5 gm
since his last HR, Sep 19
Season
19 HR
146 games · 0 HR last 14d
Rhythm tightness
his gaps between HRs, in game-days — tight columns = metronome, spread = streaky
one dot per gap · 18 gaps · median 6 gm · MAD ± 4.0 gm · now marker = current gap
SunMonTueWedThuFriSat
Rhythm observation, not a prediction — the “g+n” counters and crossing marks only read his own history. See tonight’s board for the model’s actual ranking. Model picks · For entertainment.
Score Breakdown
Base 44 → 44
ISO (Power)
Barrel Matchup
Park Factor
Pitcher FIP
season hr rate
HR/FB Matchup
Exit Velocity
recent hr density 14d
Common questions about Jonathan Aranda
Will Jonathan Aranda hit a home run today?
Jonathan Aranda is on today's TheHomeRuns slate, ranked #2 among tonight's scored batters for home run likelihood, facing Shawn Armstrong at Progressive Field. That's a model ranking, not a prediction of a certain outcome — even the model's top-ranked bats homer in roughly one of five games. Not gambling advice.
How often does Jonathan Aranda hit home runs?
Across 146 scored games this season, Jonathan Aranda has 19 home runs — one every 7.7 games, or about 13% of his scored games.
Has Jonathan Aranda homered off Shawn Armstrong before?
Not yet — Jonathan Aranda has faced Shawn Armstrong 3 times without a home run.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.