2026-09-20 · WSH @ STL
Anatomy of a Homer: Ivan Herrera's 439-footer
Ivan Herrera off Erik Tolman · Busch Stadium
111.1
Exit velo (mph)
25°
Launch angle
439
Distance (ft)
77.2
Bat speed (mph)
The situation
Bottom of the 8th, 0-1 count, bases empty, STL trailing 3-2. Win probability moved 32 points on one pitch.
The pitch
Erik Tolman threw a 4-seam fastball at 97.8 mph, in the strike zone, pitch 2 of the at-bat.
The swing
Bat speed 77.2 mph, attack angle 14°, contact at 111.1 mph off the bat, 25° launch.
The flight
439 feet, a barrel by classification.
The park
Busch Stadium, empirical park factor 0.80, 81 degrees, Partly Cloudy, 1 mph, Out To LF.
Where it was — 4-seam fastball, 97.8 mph (catcher's view)
What the board saw.
Our model ranked Ivan Herrera #204 on the morning slate; he hit 2nd.
See how the full board did on the track record.
Data: MLB Statcast, our empirical park factors, and the morning odds snapshot. Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.