Morning Wizard (Trial)
2026-07-12 · 247 matchups scored
1 of 9 steps done
Step 1 of 9
15 candidates · replay — locks off
Park + Weather
Today's most HR-friendly environments — parks and weather conditions that favor the long ball.
KC
BAL
KC @ BAL
Crosswind
1.286
1.17×
84.2°F
7 mph
open
#6 Pete Alonso
No HR
2nd signal
park · top
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·
#11 Samuel Basallo
HR that night
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·
#26 Jac Caglianone
No HR
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BOS
NYM
BOS @ NYM
Wind out
1.279
0.98×
83.8°F
8.0 mph
open
#16 Juan Soto
No HR
2nd signal
park · splits
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·
#75 Andruw Monasterio
No HR
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·
#76 Wilyer Abreu
No HR
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AZ
LAD
AZ @ LAD
Wind out
1.216
1.22×
77.5°F
5.1 mph
open
#1 Shohei Ohtani
HR that night
3rd signal
park · form · top
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·
#13 Ketel Marte
No HR
2nd signal
park · pitcher
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·
#14 Max Muncy
No HR
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HOU
TEX
HOU @ TEX
Crosswind
1.216
0.94×
93.8°F
4 mph
retractable
#7 Yordan Alvarez
No HR
2nd signal
park · top
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·
#20 Joc Pederson
No HR
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·
#36 Jake Burger
No HR
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CHC
CIN
CHC @ CIN
Wind out
1.190
1.08×
83.8°F
2.0 mph
open
#5 Elly De La Cruz
No HR
2nd signal
park · top
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·
#9 Sal Stewart
No HR
2nd signal
park · top
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·
#10 Pete Crow-Armstrong
No HR
2nd signal
park · top
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Step 2 of 9
0 candidates · replay — locks off
Susceptible Pitchers
Pitchers on today's slate with the highest HR-susceptibility scores — they give up dingers at elevated rates.
No susceptible pitchers on today's slate — the arms are locked in today.
Step 3 of 9
3 candidates · replay — locks off
FIP-xFIP Gap Risk
Pitchers pitching today whose FIP is running above xFIP, pointing to HR over-allowance.
View full report →
Step 4 of 9
5 candidates · replay — locks off
Splits Edge
Batter-pitcher matchups where handedness creates a significant HR/FB advantage over the batter's overall rate.
Steven Kwan
vs Tyler Phillips
No HR
+255%
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Trea Turner
vs Tarik Skubal
No HR
+179%
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Isaac Collins
vs Shane Baz
No HR
+122%
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Juan Soto
vs Payton Tolle
No HR
2nd signal
park · splits
+96%
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Chandler Simpson
vs Emerson Hancock
No HR
+80%
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Step 5 of 9
5 candidates · replay — locks off
Arsenal Edges
Pitch-type exploits — batters who crush the exact pitches their opponent throws most.
Kody Clemens
vs Jose Soriano
No HR
10.2
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Braden Shewmake
vs Paul Skenes
No HR
9.1
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Joshua Kuroda-Grauer
vs Noah Schultz
No HR
8.6
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Nathan Lukes
vs German Marquez
HR that night
2nd signal
pitcher · arsenal
8.2
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Denzer Guzman
vs Taj Bradley
HR that night
8.1
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Step 6 of 9
9 candidates · replay — locks off
Hot / Cold Streaks
Who's been raking and who's been ice cold over the last 7 tracked days.
Streaks are context for your read — they are not model inputs. The score already reflects each batter's true talent.
🔥 Hot (2+ HRs in 7 days)
James Wood
HR that night
2nd signal
form · top
5 HRs / 6 games
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Shohei Ohtani
HR that night
3rd signal
park · form · top
4 HRs / 6 games
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Ben Rice
No HR
2nd signal
form · top
3 HRs / 6 games
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Junior Caminero
No HR
2nd signal
form · top
2 HRs / 7 games
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Kyle Schwarber
No HR
2nd signal
form · top
2 HRs / 5 games
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❄️ Cold (0 HRs in 3+ games)
Hunter Goodman
0 HRs / 4 games
Max Muncy
0 HRs / 4 games
Kody Clemens
0 HRs / 3 games
Pete Crow-Armstrong
0 HRs / 3 games
Step 7 of 9
5 candidates · replay — locks off
Unlucky Barrels
Batters who crushed the ball (EV 105+ mph) but didn't get the HR — regression candidates due to break through.
Barrel luck is context for your read — it is not a model input. The score stands on its own.
Jorge Soler
No HR
110.6 mph max EV
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Garrett Mitchell
No HR
110.7 mph max EV
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Jordan Walker
No HR
113.8 mph max EV
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Hunter Goodman
No HR
110.5 mph max EV
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Yandy Díaz
No HR
110.2 mph max EV
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Step 8 of 9
10 candidates · replay — locks off
Today's Top Picks
The top 10 matchups on the board — your starting point for building today's locks.
⚡
Stack Alerts
AZ Bullpen Proxy (FIP 4.55):
#1 Shohei Ohtani, #13 Max Muncy
Matthew Boyd (FIP 4.09):
#5 Elly De La Cruz, #8 Sal Stewart, #9 Jj Bleday
Seth Lugo (FIP 4.49):
#6 Pete Alonso, #11 Samuel Basallo
Step 9 of 9
0 candidates · replay — locks off
The payoff
What that morning's walk produced by night — recorded, not predicted.
1 of 9
Steps visited
55
Candidates seen
69
Signals stacked
0
Total locks
This was a replay of 2026-07-12. Every result above is what actually happened that night — a recorded fact, never a forward claim. The live Wizard runs the same ritual on today's board.