LongDong™️ — Morning Wizard

Step 1 of 9

Park + Weather

Today's most HR-friendly environments — parks and weather conditions that favor the long ball.

PHI

LAD

PHI @ LAD Wind out 1.786

Dodger Stadium Park × 1.37 warm air · strong partial wind out · roof open

1.37× 75.1°F 15.0 mph open

#1 Kyle Schwarber · #4 Bryce Harper · #26 Andy Pages

KC

TEX

KC @ TEX Wind out 1.557

Globe Life Field Park × 1.04 hot air · strong partial wind out · retractable roof

1.04× 92.5°F 15.0 mph retractable

#51 Jake Burger · #61 Salvador Perez · #62 Joc Pederson

MIL

HOU

MIL @ HOU Wind in 1.486

Minute Maid Park Park × 1.14 hot air · light wind in · retractable roof

1.14× 92.5°F 4 mph retractable

#3 Yordan Alvarez · #6 Christian Walker · #44 Jake Bauers

SD

WSH

SD @ WSH Wind out 1.440

Nationals Park Park × 1.11 warm air · strong partial wind out · roof open

1.11× 72.6°F 18.4 mph open

#7 James Wood · #14 Ty France · #18 Gavin Sheets

BOS

CLE

BOS @ CLE Wind out 1.419

Progressive Field Park × 0.89 cool air · strong wind out · roof open

0.89× 63.0°F 24.2 mph open

#91 Willson Contreras · #119 Travis Bazzana · #126 Kyle Manzardo

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Step 2 of 9

🎯

Susceptible Pitchers

Pitchers on today's slate with the highest HR-susceptibility scores — they give up dingers at elevated rates.

🌪️

No susceptible pitchers on today's slate — the arms are locked in today.

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Step 3 of 9

💥

Meltdown Risk

Pitchers pitching today who give up HRs above their expected rate — due for multi-HR outings.

Roki Sasaki 8.3% HR rate

72 apps · 6 HRs · FIP 6.42 · xFIP 4.97 · Gap +1.44

Brandon Sproat 14.3% HR rate

98 apps · 14 HRs · FIP 6.22 · xFIP 4.78 · Gap +1.44

Ryan Feltner 11.1% HR rate

54 apps · 6 HRs · FIP 5.86 · xFIP 4.61 · Gap +1.24

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Step 4 of 9

⚡

Splits Edge

Batter-pitcher matchups where handedness creates a significant HR/FB advantage over the batter's overall rate.

Luis Arráez vs Ryan Feltner +326%

LHB vs RHP · Matchup HR/FB 9.8% (overall 2.3%)

⚪ D #206

Bo Bichette vs Tyler Phillips +190%

RHB vs RHP · Matchup HR/FB 8.7% (overall 3.0%)

⚪ D #120

Cody Bellinger vs J.T. Ginn +155%

LHB vs RHP · Matchup HR/FB 29.6% (overall 11.6%)

🔵 C+ #48

Hyeseong Kim vs Jesús Luzardo +148%

LHB vs LHP · Matchup HR/FB 12.4% (overall 5.0%)

⚪ D #240

Alec Bohm vs Roki Sasaki +130%

RHB vs RHP · Matchup HR/FB 11.5% (overall 5.0%)

🟠 C #73

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Step 5 of 9

🎯

Arsenal Edges

Pitch-type exploits — batters who crush the exact pitches their opponent throws most.

Jorge Mateo vs Brady Singer 9.7

Fastball (Hard) · 3% usage

Bat RV/100: 7.7 · Pit RV/100: 16.8 · 1 bat HRs

Braden Shewmake vs Brandon Sproat 8.5

Changeup (Offspeed) · 7% usage

Bat RV/100: 16.4 · Pit RV/100: 1.1 · 1 bat HRs

Dominic Smith vs Brady Singer 7.4

Fastball (Hard) · 3% usage

Bat RV/100: 2.8 · Pit RV/100: 16.8 · 2 bat HRs

Alec Burleson vs Ben Brown 7.4

Knuckle Curve (Breaking) · 37% usage

Bat RV/100: 10.8 · Pit RV/100: -3.2 · 0 bat HRs

Kyle Tucker vs Jesús Luzardo 7.3

Sweeper (Breaking) · 35% usage

Bat RV/100: 8.9 · Pit RV/100: -0.7 · 1 bat HRs

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Step 6 of 9

🔥

Hot / Cold Streaks

Who's been raking and who's been ice cold over the last 7 tracked days.

🔥 Hot (2+ HRs in 7 days)

Dillon Dingler 3 HRs / 6 games

Christian Walker 3 HRs / 7 games

Munetaka Murakami 3 HRs / 6 games

Luke Raley 3 HRs / 4 games

JJ Bleday 3 HRs / 4 games

❄️ Cold (0 HRs in 3+ games)

Colson Montgomery 0 HRs / 6 games

Jordan Walker 0 HRs / 6 games

Junior Caminero 0 HRs / 6 games

Pete Alonso 0 HRs / 6 games

Elly De La Cruz 0 HRs / 5 games

Step 7 of 9

💨

Unlucky Barrels

Batters who crushed the ball (EV 105+ mph) but didn't get the HR — regression candidates due to break through.

Pete Alonso 112.9 mph max EV

7 apps · 0 HRs · 5 hard-hit games · Avg max EV 105.7

Aaron Judge 112.1 mph max EV

6 apps · 1 HRs · 5 hard-hit games · Avg max EV 108.0

Pete Crow-Armstrong 114.6 mph max EV

7 apps · 1 HRs · 5 hard-hit games · Avg max EV 106.4

Bryan Reynolds 110.4 mph max EV

7 apps · 2 HRs · 6 hard-hit games · Avg max EV 104.9

Matt Olson 111.1 mph max EV

6 apps · 2 HRs · 5 hard-hit games · Avg max EV 107.4

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Step 8 of 9

👑

Today's Top Picks

The top 10 matchups on the board — your starting point for building today's locks.

#1

Kyle Schwarber vs Roki Sasaki

88 🟢 A 🌧️ COOL PHI @ LAD

#2

Casey Schmitt vs Ryan Feltner

86 🟢 A SF @ COL

#3

Yordan Alvarez vs Brandon Sproat

86 🟢 A MIL @ HOU

#4

Bryce Harper vs Roki Sasaki

83 🟢 A 🌤️ WARM PHI @ LAD

#5

Matt Olson vs Brady Singer

81 🟢 A 🌧️ COOL ATL @ CIN

#6

Christian Walker vs Brandon Sproat

80 🟢 A MIL @ HOU

#7

James Wood vs Michael King

80 🟢 A SD @ WSH

#8 Michael Harris II vs Brady Singer

78 🟡 B 🌧️ COOL ATL @ CIN

#9

Ian Happ vs Kyle Leahy

78 🟡 B CHC @ STL

#10

Aaron Judge vs J.T. Ginn

78 🟡 B NYY @ ATH

Step 9 of 9

📋

Wizard Summary

Here's everyone you locked during your morning research. Ready to go!

That was a sample wizard from 2026-05-30. The real one uses today's live data.

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Morning Wizard (Trial)

Park + Weather

Susceptible Pitchers

Meltdown Risk

Splits Edge

Arsenal Edges

Hot / Cold Streaks

🔥 Hot (2+ HRs in 7 days)

❄️ Cold (0 HRs in 3+ games)

Unlucky Barrels

Today's Top Picks

Wizard Summary

The top 10 picks. Every morning.