2026
Pricing
Sign In
🧪 Trial Mode — sample data from 2026-10-16. Sign up free to use today's live slate.
TheHomeRuns.org action mode

Morning Wizard (Trial)

2026-10-16 · 18 matchups scored

1 of 9 steps done
Step 1 of 9 3 candidates · replay — locks off

Park + Weather

Today's most HR-friendly environments — parks and weather conditions that favor the long ball.

TB
CLE
TB @ CLE Wind in 0.380
Progressive Field Park × 0.95 cold air · strong wind in · roof open
0.95× 55°F 23 mph open
#1 Junior Caminero 2nd signal park · top · #2 Victor Mesa Jr. 2nd signal park · top · #3 Jonathan Aranda 2nd signal park · top
View full report →
Step 2 of 9 0 candidates · replay — locks off
🎯

Susceptible Pitchers

Pitchers on today's slate with the highest HR-susceptibility scores — they give up dingers at elevated rates.

🌪️
No susceptible pitchers on today's slate — the arms are locked in today.
View full report →
Step 3 of 9 0 candidates · replay — locks off
💥

FIP-xFIP Gap Risk

Pitchers pitching today whose FIP is running above xFIP, pointing to HR over-allowance.

🏜️
No FIP-xFIP gap candidates on the mound today.
View full report →
Step 4 of 9 5 candidates · replay — locks off
⚡

Splits Edge

Batter-pitcher matchups where handedness creates a significant HR/FB advantage over the batter's overall rate.

Taylor Walls vs Shawn Armstrong +176%
SHB vs RHP · Matchup HR/FB 5.8% (overall 2.1%)
⚪ D #16
Richie Palacios vs Shawn Armstrong +-58%
LHB vs RHP · Matchup HR/FB 8.1% (overall 19.2%)
⚪ D #12
Steven Kwan vs Nick Martinez +56%
LHB vs RHP · Matchup HR/FB 6.1% (overall 3.9%)
⚪ D #17
Yandy Diaz vs Shawn Armstrong 2nd signal splits · top +-55%
RHB vs RHP · Matchup HR/FB 10.6% (overall 23.7%)
⚪ D #8
Liam Hicks vs Shawn Armstrong 2nd signal splits · top +-55%
LHB vs RHP · Matchup HR/FB 8.7% (overall 19.3%)
⚪ D #10
View full report →
Step 5 of 9 0 candidates · replay — locks off
🎯

Arsenal Edges

Pitch-type exploits — batters who crush the exact pitches their opponent throws most.

No arsenal edges found for this date.
View full report →
Step 6 of 9 7 candidates · replay — locks off
🔥

Hot / Cold Streaks

Who's been raking and who's been ice cold over the last 7 tracked days.

Streaks are context for your read — they are not model inputs. The score already reflects each batter's true talent.

🔥 Hot (2+ HRs in 7 days)

Pete Alonso 4 HRs / 6 games
Elly De La Cruz 2 HRs / 2 games
Yordan Álvarez 2 HRs / 5 games

❄️ Cold (0 HRs in 3+ games)

James Wood 0 HRs / 4 games
Kyle Schwarber 0 HRs / 4 games
Pete Crow-Armstrong 0 HRs / 4 games
Juan Soto 0 HRs / 3 games
Step 7 of 9 0 candidates · replay — locks off
💨

Unlucky Barrels

Batters who crushed the ball (EV 105+ mph) but didn't get the HR — regression candidates due to break through.

Barrel luck is context for your read — it is not a model input. The score stands on its own.
No unlucky barrel data available.
View full report →
Step 8 of 9 10 candidates · replay — locks off
👑

Today's Top Picks

The top 10 matchups on the board — your starting point for building today's locks.

⚡ Stack Alerts
Shawn Armstrong (FIP 4.5): #1 Junior Caminero, #2 Victor Mesa Jr., #3 Jonathan Aranda, #6 Yandy Diaz, #9 Jonny Deluca, #11 Liam Hicks, #12 Richie Palacios
Nick Martinez (FIP 4.02): #4 Nathaniel Lowe, #5 Jo Adell, #7 Chase Delauter, #8 Travis Bazzana, #10 Patrick Bailey, #13 Brayan Rocchio, #14 Jose Ramirez, #15 Petey Halpin
#1 Junior Caminero vs Shawn Armstrong 2nd signal park · top
57 🟠 C TB @ CLE
#2 Victor Mesa Jr. vs Shawn Armstrong 2nd signal park · top
49 ⚪ D 🌧️ COOL TB @ CLE
#3 Jonathan Aranda vs Shawn Armstrong 2nd signal park · top
44 ⚪ D 🌧️ COOL TB @ CLE
#4 Nathaniel Lowe vs Nick Martinez
44 ⚪ D 🌤️ WARM TB @ CLE
#5 Jo Adell vs Nick Martinez
42 ⚪ D 🌤️ WARM TB @ CLE
#6 Travis Bazzana vs Nick Martinez
39 ⚪ D 🌤️ WARM TB @ CLE
#7 Chase Delauter vs Nick Martinez
38 ⚪ D TB @ CLE
#8 Yandy Diaz vs Shawn Armstrong 2nd signal splits · top
37 ⚪ D TB @ CLE
#9 Patrick Bailey vs Nick Martinez
37 ⚪ D 🌤️ WARM TB @ CLE
#10 Liam Hicks vs Shawn Armstrong 2nd signal splits · top
36 ⚪ D 🌧️ COOL TB @ CLE
Step 9 of 9 0 candidates · replay — locks off
📋

The payoff

What that morning's walk produced by night — recorded, not predicted.

1 of 9
Steps visited
16
Candidates seen
21
Signals stacked
0
Total locks
This was a replay of 2026-10-16. Every result above is what actually happened that night — a recorded fact, never a forward claim. The live Wizard runs the same ritual on today's board.
Sign up free for today's Wizard →
THR 3.3.180 · build 681
⚾

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.

Yesterday's board graded name-by-name — hits and misses — plus tonight's ranked board (scores and matchups; batter names are Pro), free in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.